The progress we’ve made… and the road to travel Servaas van der Berg ReSEP, Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch 28 September 2017

Overview Progress in attainment More recent progress in quality/cognitive outcomes Matric TIMSS SACMEQ But many issues remain: Poor quality, large deficits compared to other upper-middle-income countries, despite the progress we’ve made Weak quality early in school system High levels of inequality

Rising educational attainment

Average years of education by race and birth cohort, 2011 (Source: Own calculations from Census 2011 (Supercross))

% of all young adults 21-25 who have completed various grades

% of white young adults 21-25 who have completed various grades

Martin Gustafsson/DBE research on matric performance

High level Maths achievers

% of schools with high-level maths achievers Note: A learner is considered a ‘high-level achiever’ here if a mark was achieved which would place him or her within the performance range of the top 20% of white Grade 12 learners. Roughly, the cut-off used is what would permit a learner entry into a mathematically-oriented university programme. Public schools with missing quintile were excluded. Note: Accuracy of this data influenced by quintile data for many schools not being available. Source: Martin Gustafsson. 2017. Unpublished document.

HSRC (Vijay Reddy et al.) on TIMSS Maths

TIMSS Maths performance by parent education

Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution It took us 12 years to learn that we are improving – and without TIMSS we would not even have known that

Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution

Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution – SA & Australia

What can we learn from SACMEQ, etc?

But despite progress, there is no room for complacency…

Cumulative performance in PIRLS 2006 in England and SA

% of Gr4 students that are reading illiterate or cannot read for meaning (in home language)

Reading fluency in English English reading fluency of Gr5 second language learners from rural areas is similar to Gr1 second language learners in Florida – Draper & Spaull 2015

English literacy in Gr6: Example from V-ANA 2012 Only 30% of Gr6 children could answer this question Only 20% in no-fee schools (Quintiles 1 – 3) could

Some V-ANA responses in 2012 In 2011 V-ANA, only 16% of Gr3s could answer this question: 72 – 37 = … Almost half (46%) could not identify the tallest member of this team Only 9% of Gr6s could answer 10% of 180 is equal to … Source: Olivia Ezeobi, 2012 (unpublished)

NSES question 42 Gr3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers” Taylor, N., & Reddi, B. (2013). Writing and learning mathematics. In N. Taylor, S. Van der Berg, & T. Mabogoane, Creating Effective Schools. Cape Town: Pearson. Source: Spaull & Viljoen, 2013

Some things we need to do Measure … measure …measure – and use the results to feed back information To teachers To children To policy makers To parents

Some things we still need to know How do some individuals in very weak schools somehow still perform exceptionally well and why does it largely remain confined to individuals? Why do children still progress after falling behind? (Do teachers teach work of lower grades, or do they learn from their peers?) What is preventing a smoother language transition (compared to our neighbours, for instance)?