Triad Market Forecast 2016-17 RETAIL Jeffrey T. Nimmer

Retail Trends Increasing Costs and Rental Rates: Grocery Store Wars: Downsizing of Retail Footprints: Restaurants Changes and Expansion: Technological Tools: Continued Urban Redevelopment

Market Rates Lease Rates NNN Top Tier Small Shop – New Construction: $32-45 psf* Top Tier Small Shops $25-30 psf Secondary Markets – Small Shop: $8-14 psf Top Tier Big Box – New Construction: $10-15 psf Top Tier Big Box $8-10 psf Secondary Markets –Big Box $3-7 psf Land Pricing – Asking – Inputed Value (Pad Sites) Top Tier Site: ~$1,000,000/acre Secondary Markets: $400,000-$600,000/acre Sale vs. Ground Lease*

Restaurant/Service Heavy Centers

Retail Trends – Technology

Urban Core Redevelopment Continues Downtown Winston-Salem - Innovation Quarter - Bailey Power Plant Project - RJR Building (The Katherine) Downtown Greensboro - Lewis Street (Southside) - Tanger Center for Performing Arts - Lower Fisher Park

2017 – Retail Forecast Lease Rates: Quoted rents will continue to be push higher in Top Tier sub-markets and be stable in secondary markets. Long term sustainability of rents in question. Footprints: Retail footprints will continue to shrink as companies look to reduce overhead. Urban Cores: Continued redevelopment and investment, but long term viability will depend on increasing the housing stock in core. Restaurant Bubble??: Slow down in the expansion of restaurants, increase in closures. Rise of Nano Businesses: Low over head space. Co-Labs, Salon suites, Food Halls, Consignment style set ups. 250-500-sf