Atmospheric Stability Analysis

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Presentation transcript:

Atmospheric Stability Analysis Team Crafty Shawn Roj, Chris Garner, and Mason Lynch ATMS 611/411 October 16, 2017 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chaparral_Supercell_2.JPG

Fort Worth, Texas Upper Air Sounding Description Fort Worth Sounding Values Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) 882.4 mb, ~ 1,140 m Level of Free Convection (LFC) 855.6 mb, ~ 1,420 m Equilibrium Level (EQLV) 138.3 mb, ~ 14,500 m ThetaE @ LFC 372.1 K (98.95 C) Calculated CAPE 7,376 J/kg (3%) Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV 62.5 m/s Calculated Precipitable Water 48 mm (8%) E

Stability

Stability

Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis Low heights Counter Clockwise High heights Clockwise Max. winds north of FWD Min. winds Mexico and Gulf of Mexico L FWD H

1997 Central Texas Tornado Outbreak Jarrell, Texas May 27, 1997 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_Texas_tornado_outbreak https://youtu.be/vlk-7lyKyug top 3-second gusts of 261 - 318 mph http://www.kvue.com/news/local/jarrell-tornado-20-years-later/442411985

Synoptic Scale Jet Stream Unstable Read this: http://www.weather.gov/fwd/Jarrell-Tornado-Anniversary Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhjFiiff69o Unstable

Springfield, Missouri Upper Air Sounding High CAPE value Sounding Balloon appears to have failed just above the 500 mb level. CAPE value was likely higher than shown Zero convective inhibition – If an air parcel can reach the LFC, rapid growth of thunderstorms is possible Sounding location is about 70 miles east of Joplin, Missouri Description Springfield Sounding Values Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE) 352.0 K (78.85 C) Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) 908.2 mb, ~ 908 m Level of Free Convection (LFC) 879.6 mb, ~ 1,219 m Equilibrium Level (EQLV) 160.4 mb, ~ 13,411 m Calculated CAPE 4,577 J/kg (2.5%) Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV 47.3 m/s Calculated Precipitable Water 41.7 mm (5.5%) E

Stability

Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis Low heights Counter Clockwise flow High heights Clockwise flow Maximum winds on south side of Low Minimum winds in Mexico and across the Gulf of Mexico L SGF H

CONCLUSIONS Joplin, Missouri Tornado May 23, 2011 IA CONCLUSIONS Joplin, Missouri Tornado May 23, 2011 NE IL IN KS MO Springfield, MO KY OK TN AR TX MS AL Read this: http://www.weather.gov/fwd/Jarrell-Tornado-Anniversary Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhjFiiff69o

Joplin Tornado EF-5 Multi-Vortex wedge tornado Part of larger tornado outbreak Max width of 1 mile Many fatalities Est. $2.8 billion in damage Springfield, MO received about 12.7 mm of rain (0.5”) Joplin, MO received up to 50 mm of rain (2.0”) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_Texas_tornado_outbreak https://youtu.be/vlk-7lyKyug top 3-second gusts of 261 - 318 mph http://www.kvue.com/news/local/jarrell-tornado-20-years-later/442411985 Joplin Tornado

Omaha, Nebraska Upper Air Sounding Description Omaha Sounding Values Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE) 361.3 K (C) Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) 886.8 mb, ~ 750 m Level of Free Convection (LFC) 707.9 mb, ~ 3,200 m Equilibrium Level (EQLV) 136.0 mb, ~ 14,855 m Calculated CAPE 3,416 J/kg Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV 41.3 m/s Calculated Precipitable Water 50 mm EQLV CAPE E LFC CIN LCL

Stability ѲE Stable Ѳ Stable Unstable ѲE Stable Neutrally Stable

Geopotential Height 500 mb Reanalysis Low heights Counter-Clockwise High heights Clockwise Max. winds North of OAX, Northern U.S. and Southern Canada Min. winds Mexico and the Midwest OAX H L

Conclusions Tropical Storm Edouard 25 kts wind speed Winds variable

Tropical Storm Edouard

Summary of Soundings Description Springfield Sounding Values Fort Worth Omaha Equivalent Potential Temperature (qE) 352.0 K (78.85 C) 372.1 K (98.95 C) 361.3 K (C) Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) 908.2 mb, ~ 908 m 882.4 mb, ~ 1,140 m 886.8 mb, ~ 750 m Level of Free Convection (LFC) 879.6 mb, ~ 1,219 m 855.6 mb, ~ 1,420 m 707.9 mb, ~ 3,200 m Equilibrium Level (EQLV) 160.4 mb, ~ 13,411 m 138.3 mb, ~ 14,500 m 136.0 mb, ~ 14,855 m Calculated CAPE 4,577 J/kg 7,376 J/kg 3,416 J/kg Calculated Vertical Velocity at EQLV 47.3 m/s 62.5 m/s 41.3 m/s Calculated Precipitable Water 41.7 mm 48 mm 50 mm