Analysis of capacity on double-track railway lines Olov Lindfeldt February 2008

Disposition Introduction – freight capacity question TVEM (model) Infrastructure modeling Application - Three-pattern case Conclusions

Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: Assume one Make more general assumptions an generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: Assume one Make more general assumptions an generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: Assume one Make more general assumptions and generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: Assume one Make more general assumptions and generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

Research view Aim How do the infrastructure and the timetable affect capacity? Method Combinatorial analysis of infrastructure designs and timetable structures.  TVEM: Timetable Variant Evaluation Model

TVEM: Assumptions Passenger traffic operated with a periodic timetable Train patterns All patterns are scheduled according to a priority order. A train with higher priority is never given scheduled delay for a train with lower priority.

TVEM: Structure

TVEM: Variables Run times between overtaking stations (infrastructure + vehicle) Deceleration and acceleration supplements (for overtaking situations) Regular stops Track dispositions at stations Frequency of service Scheduling order

TVEM: Calculation scheme Periodic timetable  train patterns Scheduling order for train patterns Time step: 1 minute Last pattern: as many freight trains as possible

Infrastructure modelling (1/2) Real distribution for inter-station distance. Fitted Weibull distribution (M-L). Mean: 22,7 km Std: 109 km2.

Infrastructure modelling (2/2) Effect of additional overtaking stations? Halve the greatest distance repeatedly.  relationship between parameters

Application: Three-pattern case High-speed, regional and freight trains Mean number of trains (capacity): Two speed combinations - 160/115 km/h (dotted) - 210/160 km/h (solid) Two infrastructure layouts. Inter-station distance: - mean 22 km (lower) - mean 17 km (upper)

Conclusions Combinatorial / deterministic approach  TVEM Infrastructure treated as a variable. Modeled stochastically (replications) Regular passenger timetable  train pattern  combinatorial timetable analysis Evaluation: mean capacity, variance caused by: Infrastructure Timetable

Thank You for the attention! Number of freight trains/h