Gli indici di sviluppo locale umano applicati ai territori toscani XXII° Edizione Nuovo sviluppo industriale e politiche di sistema 8-10 Ottobre 2012, Villa Medicea di Artimino Gli indici di sviluppo locale umano applicati ai territori toscani Mario Biggeri Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e per l'Impresa, Università di Firenze Centro interuniversitario di Economia Applicata alle Politiche per l’Industria, lo Sviluppo locale e l'Internazionalizzazione (c.MET05) con il contributo di Marco Bellandi, Andrea Ferrannini e Vincenzo Mauro

Introduction - We present a statistical-economic approach based on the integration between the literature on local development and the human development perspective. - This integration focuses on local opportunities and it applies an innovative interpretative framework to sub-regional development paths of Tuscany provinces which jointly analyses the economic and the social dimensions at local level.

Premise 1 - Italian literature on the social dimension of local systems (Bacci, Bagnasco, Becattini, Brusco, Dei Ottati, Trigilia, …) “Multiple paths of local development” (Bellandi and Sforzi, 2003 in Becattini, Bellandi, Dei Ottati and Sforzi, From Industrial Districts to Local Development) 3

Premise 2 - Sustainable Human Development (Amartya Sen, 1999) - Capability approach as an opportunity-based theory - GDP vs multidimensionality, Human Development Index (HDI) - Integration among micro-meso-macro levels  This perspective could bring to important results in terms of analysis and of policy implications from a social and economic point of view and development processes at the local level. 4

Premise 3 Inappropriateness of unique mono-dimensional indicator Going beyond the GDP (Stiglitz – Sen – Fitoussi Commission, 2009) Need to take into account synergies and complementarities between economic and social dimensions 5

Objective Operationalization of the Sustainable Human Development paradigm at local level and empirical application to the case of Tuscany provinces Will follow: Interpretative framework on multiple paths of local development Methodology of analysis and data Empirical results regarding Tuscany region provinces 6

Interpretative framework on multiple paths of local development

Sustainable Human Development (SHD) The dynamic synergy between economic opportunities and social opportunities and how it shapes SHD trajectories. - The social-environmental dimension SD The result at aggregate local level of different components determining the social outcomes in terms of Basic Social Services, social integration and participation and environmental protection. - The economic dimension ED The result at aggregate level of different components which determine the economic opportunity/efficiency at local level.

Interpretative framework

The high road to Sustainable Human Development at local level Source: Mehrotra and Biggeri (2007: 368) 10

Methodology of analysis and data

Bi-dimensional index The idea is to represent the units and try to observe their path or shift over time  Need for two indexes or a bi-dimensional index that can describe both situations Many approaches are possible to describe both social and economic components: most of them have to face a step where the variables available are aggregated into a (possibly single) value.

Geometric interpretation The index is one minus the quadratic mean of diff. from max (i.e. 1)  the synergic evolutionary SHD paths of the unit of analysis 13

BRICS (1990-2005)

Italy, US, Netherlands (1990-2005)

Italy, US, Netherlands (1990-2005)

Empirical results regarding Tuscany region provinces

Local development paths: Tuscany region provinces Rationales for unit of analysis and data base Characteristics of the analysis: Dynamic (1998-2010): medium-term analysis with 4-years intervals Multidimensional: economic and social dimensions with 5 sub-dimensions each

Medium-term analysis - 1998 - 2002 - 2006 - 2010 (or most recent data: 2008-2009)  4-years intervals are needed to observe significant movements on Local Human Development trajectories

Multidimensional analysis Economic Dimension (n° indicators) Social Dimension Economic opportunities (4) Environment opportunities (2) Employment opportunities (3) Access to health services opportunities (3) Credit opportunities (4) Education opportunities (3) Entrepreneurship opportunities (3) Participation and social capital opportunities (6) Investments opportunities (2) Equal opportunities (8)

Main difficulties in data collection - Missing data in panel series e.g. Institutional structures and processes (e.g. start up new enterprises, corruption, …); GDP per capita corrected by inequality; Renewable energy; Job-training for persons with disability. - Change in some statistical indicators - Poor territorial disaggregation of data (province level)

Tuscany Region provinces Empirical results: Tuscany Region provinces

Framework: Results (1) 1998 1998 1998 1998 1998

Framework: Results (2)

Wealth, employment and credit ED disaggregation (1) Wealth, employment and credit

Wealth, employment and credit ED disaggregation (2) Wealth, employment and credit

SD disaggregation (1)

SD disaggregation (2)

Main results (a) - Most units follow routes quite close to a synergic pattern in Tuscany during the first period - Similar trajectory 1998-2002 except for Livorno and Massa-Carrara (decline ED) - Impact of recent financial crisis: immediate dramatic decline in SD in all provinces - ED seems to diminish sensitively its level

Main results (b) The sensitivity analysis confirmed our results (not driven by a unique group of variables). The disaggregate analysis in the ED indicates a more diffused attention towards variables affecting wealth, employment and credit opportunities. - The disaggregate analysis in the SD indicates a general tendency towards a more synergistic path before the crisis. - The economic and social dimensions interactions

Main conclusions - Relevance of changing perspective and objective with an integrated framework focused on ED-SD synergies - Benefit of path analysis with an evolutionary medium-term view: Replicable to other case studies Easy to be continuously updated Policy implications

Next research steps Improving data selection and collection On-going discussion on dimensions, opportunities and variables - Application to different regions and to different unit of analysis (e.g. local development systems and/or local labour systems) Systematic cross-validation with other reports and empirical analyses

Comments are more than welcome Thank you ! Comments are more than welcome We are grateful to Marco Bellucci and Annalisa Caloffi for their contribution in this research

Appendix II: Selected variables for Tuscany provinces (1) Economic dimension Wealth GDP per capita Entrepreneurship Industrial value-added per worker Freedom from Debt per capita Turn-over of local firms Bank savings per capita Density of firms Financial autonomy Investments Hi-Tech firms Employment Employment rate Provincial capital account expenditures Freedom from CIG hours per worker Credit Bank branches per capita Subsidized credit per capita ATM per squared km Freedom from Accounts uncollectible

Appendix II: Selected variables for Tuscany provinces (2) Social dimension Environment Provincial expenditure for environmental protection Health Coverage of mammography prevention “Legambiente” Ecosystem Index Health workers per capita Education Graduates per capita Freedom from Work injuries Provincial expenditures for professional education Equal opportunities <35 in provincial administration Coverage of professional education courses Women in provincial administration Teachers per pupil Female unemployment Participation and social capital Blood donations per capita Youth unemployment Waste recycling Waiting list for kindergarten Newspapers diffusion Learning support teachers Electoral participation Women in local firms N° of volunteering organizations <30 in local firms Freedom from Juvenile reports Foreign entrepreneurship

Classic perspective: GDP per capita Source: Sole24Ore and ISTAT