Campaigns and Elections Chapter 8 Campaigns and Elections
Enduring questions about elections Basic purposes in democracies? How do U.S. election laws compare? Consequences of our election laws? Major factors influencing the public’s vote choices? “Normal” elections versus “critical” elections? How polarized are: the U.S public? our elected officials?
1) What are the two basic purposes of elections in a democracy? Mandate Safeguard Two external safeguards Free, fair, frequent, & competitive elections A pluralist rather than a polarized society Three internal safeguards Division of power by levels Separation of powers by branches Overlapping (shared or concurrent) powers across both levels and branches
2) How do U.S. election laws compare to those in other democracies? Number of political parties Number & frequency of elections Unitary v. federal Parliamentary v. presidential Primary v. general Number of offices on the ballot Short v. long Cost of running for public office
3) What are the consequences of our election laws? Mass public Political trust Political efficacy Party identification Turnout Issue publics Political elites Polarization Fundraising chores Representativeness
4) What influences the public’s vote choices? Short-term factors Candidate evaluations Competency Honesty Issue attitudes Salience Policy preference Long-term factors Ideology Party id. Age Gender Class Region Race/ethnicity Religion
Two economy issues and the incumbent party’s presidential vote Federal Debt Personal Income There is a weak relationship between lowering the deficit and winning the election. But there is a stronger relationship between increasing people's incomes and getting their votes.
5) What are the consequences of “normal-vote” & “critical” elections? Examples of Party Eras 1788 Founding 1824 De-alignment 1860 Civil War & Reconstruction 1896 Industrial Revolution 1932 New Deal 1968 De-alignment 2004 ?? Definitions “Normal-vote” elections “Critical” elections Political-party systems or eras 2nd era: 1824 de-alignment issues: national building & slavery 3rd era: 1860-1876: Republican dominance 1876-1895: competitive balance 4th era: 1896: Republican dominance 5th era: 1932: Democratic dominance and “New Deal” switch on national supremacy v. states’ rights 6th era: 1968: many cross-cutting issues: VN, civil rights, law & order
Presidential voting in four political-party eras in the U.S. 1876 2000 1888 3rd era: 1860 R dominance with South out; competitive with S back in 4th era: 1896 re-alignment to R dominance 5th era: 1932 re-alignment 6th era: 1968 de-alignment
6) How polarized was the 2008 presidential vote? Electoral-vote winner by state – sectional polarization emphasized Popular-vote winner by county – fragmentation more evident – e.g. Texas and Florida Electoral-vote winner by state Popular-vote winner by county http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
6) How polarized was the 2008 presidential vote? Popular-vote division by county – de-emphasizes red v. blue voting – emphasizes “purple” outcomes Popular-vote division by county weighted by county’s population size – emphasizes urban/rural differences Popular-vote division by county weighted by county’s population size Popular-vote division by county http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
How polarized is Congress?