Chapter Seven Public Opinion

What is Public Opinion? Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things Not easy to measure Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Sample Polling Data on Iraq Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

How Polling Works Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly They have to ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion Questions must be neutrally phrased Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Question Types Bad Questions: Good Questions: What is the fastest and most economical Internet service for you? How would you rate the career of legendary outfielder Joe Dimaggio? Do you approve of the President’s oppressive immigration policy? Good Questions: How would you rate the career of baseball outfielder Joe Dimaggio? What is the fastest Internet service for you? Do you approve of the President’s immigration policy? Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Random Sampling Random sampling is necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels Most important for accurate polling For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3% Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Stability in Public Opinion Most opinions remain stable due to basic values Opinions only change due to: Education War Economic depression Loss of job Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Value/Importance of Public Opinion Polls Gov’t officials use them to decide on issues, especially close to elections Used to decide where, how, when and who to campaign in certain areas Academic polls are more accurate than media polls Bad polls can be misleading Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Awareness and Interest Politics are in backseat for certain people: only vote on issues that directly affect them Majority of people don’t know about politics or political issues (TPP) Nonvoters-little or no interest (35%of America) Attentive public-people who understand gov’t, read and discuss (25% of America) Part-time citizens-Little interest in politics but vote in Presidential elections (40% of American public) Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Why do people vote as they do? Party Identification Psychological factor Loyalty of people to a political party Most significant and lasting predictor of how a person will vote Perceptions of the Candidates and Issues Most important short-term factors Charisma of the candidate Emotional content of issues Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Why do people vote as they do? Political socialization: Process by which people gain their political attitudes Begins in childhood and continues throughout life Family most important Religion School Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Why do people vote as they do? Sociological Factors Serve as general predictors NOT final word on how a person will vote Occupation and income level Age Gender Religion Ethnic Background Geographic Region Family Why is voting behavior too complicated to predict accurately by looking at any single factor? Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Political Ideology Political ideology: a more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue The great majority of Americans do not think ideologically People may have strong predispositions even if they do not satisfy the condition of being “ideological” Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Table 7.7: Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Political Elites Political elites: those who have a disproportionate amount of some valued resource Elites influence public opinion by framing issues and stating norms But elite influence only goes so far; they do not define problems that are rooted in personal experience Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.