Risks to the India Sugar Balance Sheet Manamel Philip Philip | AISTA Sugar Conclave, Mumbai | September 2017

Production is cyclical | Consumption is linear

An Untenable Stocks-to-use Ratio

Conundrum – The Ending Stocks

Do domestic prices reflect the tightness?

Risks to 2017-18 Production - Capacities and an Early Start

Risks to 2017-18 Sugar Production - Weather

Risks to 2017-18 Sugar Production - Weather

Risks to 2017-18 Sugar Production

Sugar production in the 2018-19 crop year?

The New Paradigm?

Time to look in to the crystal ball Where will domestic prices trade during the rest of 2017 and in to 2018? Is there sufficient stock? Are further imports for the domestic sugar market necessary?

Legal disclaimer Tropical Research Services does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared by Tropical Research Services. The information, analysis and estimates contained in this report are based on Tropical Research Services’ assessment and obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This report, and its analysis of market fundamentals, have been prepared for information only and do not constitute investment advice. Tropical Research Services does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of those who receive it. Tropical Research Services recommends that you independently evaluate particular investments and strategies. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on your circumstances and objectives. All investment decisions will be made by you and not Tropical Research Services. The products, instruments, or strategies discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. You should seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products or strategies and to the tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. Tropical Research Services is not a licensed provider of legal, tax or accounting, or investment advice or services, is availing itself of an exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor, and you may not rely on Tropical Research Services for the provision of any of the foregoing advice or services. Any investment in commodities involves a risk of loss, and Tropical Research Services will have no liability for any losses incurred based upon the information in this report. Investment profits or freedom from losses cannot be guaranteed, and Tropical Research Services cannot and does not imply or guarantee that your investments will be profitable. Tropical Research Services, its principals, employees and affiliates will not be held responsible or liable for any investment losses incurred by you. Tropical Research Services expressly disclaims any and all liability that may arise from information, errors or omissions contained in this report. Tropical Research Services and its principals, employees or affiliates may trade for their own account or the account of third parties using the same, related or different products or strategies described herein. This report is meant for the intended recipient only and this report, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Tropical Research Services. © Tropical Research Services 2017