Ebola, Avian Flu & HIV/AIDS Disease: The major security threat of the future?

Avian Flu: H5N2 The bird flu is currently not capable of human to human transmission……….

Avian Flu

Bird Flu Today April 2015, farmers in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota announced they would have to kill a total of more than 5 million chickens, joining other poultry producers who have killed 2.3 million sick turkeys since the virus began spreading in March

Avian Flu: H5N1 Since 1997, 140 Humans have been infected and 75 have died. This roughly 50% mortality rate has experts worried. Only 1 American company currently manufactures flu vaccine. 1983/84 over 17 million birds euthanized Why all the excitement?

The “Spanish Lady” of 1918 40 to 100 Million Deaths Worldwide 675,000 in the U.S. alone, mostly young adults from ARS Shares genetic features with H5N1 A 1918-like flu today is likely to kill 2 million Americans 1957 & 1968 pandemics

Problems with Flu Vaccines December 2005 Congress approves 3.8 Billion for flu vaccines (1/2 of Bush request) Includes sweeping protection against lawsuits for drug manufacturers Which vaccine? 1 year development time Vaccine induced immunity slows detection outbreaks “Crying Wolf” & the Swine flu of 1976

Who to Treat? Only enough vaccine for 5% of the population 75 Million doses needed 36,000 Americans die annually from a seasonal flu

What about Developing Countries? Most developing countries would have no access to vaccines in the first wave of any pandemic Creation of an international stockpile US funding of education & detection abroad

Ebola Ebola virus is related to the viruses that cause measles and mumps, the paramyxovirus family of Hemorrhagic Fever

Ebola 20,000 Cases and 7800 deaths across Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Took 12 wks to diagnose Deadliest outbreak in history, but could have been stopped 6 mos. earlier, Why?

Ebola Corruption & Govt distrust Guinea Health Ministry Local Culture- Kissi people WHO cutbacks & deployment Open Access to Science

HIV/AIDS & Global Security http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/aids/atlas/world.html

HIV/AIDs in Sub-Saharan Africa

HIV/AIDs in Sub-Saharan Africa 25 million Africans infected with HIV, 70% of World’s total 1990s saw dramatic rise in violent conflict, 11 states at war in 1989 to 20 in 2000 War is an amplifier of disease, increasing poverty, famine and breaking down healthcare infrastructure

HIV/AIDs and Security 60% of some African Militaries are HIV positive, South African inability to field an HIV-free battalion for peacekeeping in Darfur Refugee populations are ripe for sexual exploitation AIDS orphans are likely to become child soldiers

HIV/AIDs and Security “There is no war causing more death and destruction, there is no war on the face of the earth right now that is more serious, that is more grave, than the war in sub-Saharan Africa against HIV/AID.”

HIV/AIDs and Security AIDS has killed more Ugandan soldiers than conflict Empirical research attributing violent conflict to the AIDS pandemic is scarce, however there is strong correlation between environmental stress and conflict DOD money for the first time appropriated to control HIV/AIDs in Africa http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/aids/atlas/money.html

Overall Conclusion Pandemics are a threat to national and global security The impact of Ebola & HIV/AIDS are going to continue to have devastating affects if the world does not deal with the reality of consequences Avian Flu might be scary but ultimately is of little concern http://www.avert.org/videos/a-survivors-guide-annabellas-stor