Migration and the London economy key developments Ian Gordon Geography Department / LSE London London School of Economics Conference on ‘Migration and the transformation of London: in international perspective’, LSE, 27th June 2014

London’s New Migrant Workforce Among London’s working age pop (not in education) 37% came from abroad in past 30 years (26% in past 15) Split 3:1 poor:rich country origins tho’ many others from Rich Cs have come and gone 60% have higher/age21+ qualifications [cf 51% UK born] 85% male migrants are working [cf. 82% UK-born] tho’ only 65% females [cf. 76% UK born]. just 3% are claiming benefit [cf 4% UK-born] migrant hourly pay 14% below UK-born on average tho’ gap only 10% for those in UK 15-30 years and wide rich/poor country contrast : +14% versus -27% Not simple dualisation Great variety of migrants / experiences But linked to both ends of this (very unequal) city economy

At the Bottom End of the Labour Market In worst paying 20% of jobs: half of all London workers are (post-’84) migrants including half of new migrants from poor countries though these progressively move on over time Crowding-in depresses wages in this quintile by up to 15% in wake of peak inflow around 2000 national minimum wage scarcely moderates this in London Has stimulated increase in this segment of jobs But lowered work incentive for all marginal groups with significantly fewer reporting interest in paid work

At Top End Proportion of highly qualified migrants: always has been higher in London than in RUK but boosted since introduction of point-based controls now c.94% for rich countries and c. 70% for poor countries Still issues raised about impact on high skill recruiting but half of Tier 2 admissions coming to London jobs 25-30% to City/Westminster/Tower hamlets alone part of general link to finance/ITC and big cities as elsewhere, many on intra-company transfers including IT workers notably from India May be positive impacts on innovation but not as strong/clear yet as for US especially on commercialisation might depend a lot on which migrants