Uganda: A Growth Diagnosis International Monetary Fund High Level Growth Conference Kampala, September 14, 2017

Key issues Growth developments Factors behind the slowdown Raising Uganda’s growth

Strong achievements: Growth 8 Strong achievements: Growth percent average annual growth 1995-2010

Strong achievements: Poverty Poverty headcount ratio in percent in 2013 80 ↘ 30 Poverty headcount ratio in percent in 1990

8 More recently, growth percent average growth 2010-2016 5

Trend growth has slowed Sources: IMF staff estimates. HP filter method. *EAC-3: Averages for Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania.

External factors largely supported growth Source: IMF staff estimates using the cross-country analysis method, discussed in 2017 Spring WEO Ch. 2.

Exports redirected Sources: MIT Atlas database and IMF staff calculations.

Agricultural productivity lags peers Sources: WDI database, and IMF staff calculations.

Only services showed productivity growth Sources: UBOS and BoU Staff calculations.

Total investment trend slowed Sources: WDI database and IMF Staff calculations.

Total investment trend slowed Sources: WDI database and IMF Staff calculations.

Investment were in less productive areas Sources: UBOS and BoU Staff calculations.

Low primary school completion rate Sources: WDI database and IMF staff calculations.

Social spending below regional average

Business environment improved, but less rapidly than in EAC peers Sources: WDI database and IMF staff calculations.

Business environment constraints

Business environment constraints

A lot to gain from the financial sector

Significant gains in financial inclusion

Raising Uganda’s Growth Access to financing Skills Trade Infrastructure Business environment Implementation