Global Economic Trends and the 2030 Development Agenda Seán Nolan International Monetary Fund July 20, 2017

Noteworthy International Trends Modest growth rates and prospects Sustained low interest rates in advanced economies Higher public debt levels and eroded fiscal space Sluggish trade growth but robust remittances Rising inequality in many advanced economies

Growth now picking up, but ……… Real GDP Growth, 2013-2018 (Percent, PPPGDP weighted averages)

Rising Public Debt Burdens (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)

Slowing Growth of International Trade Import Volume, Goods and Services, 2000-2016 (Constant prices, Index 2000=100)

Inequality rising within countries—but declining across the global population Global Inequality, 1988-2013 Source: World Bank (2016).

Growth weaker than expected back in 2015 Real GDP Growth, 2015-2020 (Percent, cumulative, PPPGDP weighted averages)

Policy Priorities

Supporting the 2030 Development Agenda: National Policies Boosting domestic revenue mobilization “We commit to enhancing revenue administration through modernized, progressive tax systems, improved tax policy and more efficient tax collection … [and]… will strengthen international cooperation to support efforts to build capacity in developing countries….” (Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA), 21-22) Improving investment climate “transparent and stable rules and standards and free and fair competition” for private firms of all sizes (AAAA, 36) Making growth more inclusive “We will work with all partners to ensure a sustainable, equitable, inclusive, peaceful and prosperous future for all.” (AAAA, 10)

Supporting the 2030 Development Agenda: Systemic Issues Supporting trade openness “a universal, rules-based, open, transparent, predictable, inclusive, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization (WTO)” (AAAA, 79) Strengthening global financial architecture “strengthen international coordination and policy coherence to enhance global financial and macroeconomic stability” (AAAA, 36) Scaling Up International Tax Cooperation (AAAA, 27) Boosting Increasing Private Investment in Developing Countries (AAAA 47)

What Can Multilateral Institutions Contribute?

Key Contributions of Multilateral Institutions Implement their to the full their mandates Deepen analytical and diagnostic work as the basis for concrete policy advice Examples: boosting productivity growth, raising female labor force participation, improving equality of opportunities Intensify collaboration across institutions, drawing on specialist areas of expertise

What the IMF can do Implement its mandate: “continue to give high priority to the identification and prevention of potential crises and to strengthening the underpinnings of international financial stability” (Monterrey, 2002) support member countries facing balance of payments difficulties Deepen its policy diagnosis and advice in areas of expertise: building resilience; managing shocks; debt management…... Expand support for capacity development in developing countries: Taxation, Public Financial Management, Infrastructure Policy Support, Financial Stability, Financial Deepening and Inclusion…….

THANK YOU

EXTRA SLIDES

Simplified Country Grouping Distribution of Global Economic Activity and Population, 2016 (Percent, GDP shares are PPPGDP weighted averages) Source: World Economic Outlook.

Commitment to a Well-functioning Multilateral Framework Stronger global financial architecture is needed. A rule-based and open world trading system is vital for global prosperity. The multilateral system should continue to adapt through dialogue and cooperation. Supportive domestic policies should facilitate adjustment to trade and rapid technological change. A well-functioning multilateral framework for international economic relations is a key ingredient of strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth