in the 10 Participating Countries Survey on Competitiveness in the Textile/Clothing and Leather Sectors of the New Member Countries and Bulgaria and Romania Import and Export in the 10 Participating Countries Sofia, 17th May 2005 This document has been produced with the financial support of the European Community’s BSP2 programme. The views expressed herein are those of CAST and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Commission

ANALYSIS OF IMPORTS - EXPORTS BULGARIA 2001 - 2003 YARNS AND FABRICS GARMENTS LEATHER SHOES

IMPORTS

METHODOLOGY The analysis has the goal to identify “winner” and “loser” In the competition in the Bulgarian market. Parameters: imports in value years 2001/2003 Variables: the trend (increase or decrease % in value) between 2001 and 2003 the position (import share %) Per each pre-selected countries (27 + EU15 + others)

A COMPETITION MATRIX HIGH GROWTH >AVERAGE Code 1 10 INCREASING 11 WINNERS LOW GROWTH < AVERAGE Code 0 00 MARGINALS 01 LOSERS SMALL SHARE <5% Code 0 LARGE SHARE >5% Code 1

YARNS AND FABRICS

COMMENTS ON IMPORTS OF YARNS AND FABRICS Total imports have increased +12,29%, high concentration: two countries reach almost 90% of total. The large majority of imports are from EU 15: 75,69%. This share, combined with a positive trend of “only” 8,26%, that is 7% less then the average, qualifies EU15 as “LOSER”. Turkey is the only WINNER. China is ranked 4th (share). Relevant growth trend, ranked as INCREASING.

YARNS AND FABRICS COMPETITION MATRIX 10 INCREASING 11 WINNERS Turkey China 00 MARGINALS 01 LOSERS Czech R. Others EU 15

GARMENTS

COMMENTS ON IMPORTS OF GARMENTS Total imports have increased significantly: +58,29%, The concentration is rather high, 2 countries make up over 80% of total imports and 3 countries over 90%. The largest supplier is EU15 but it is ranked as a LOSER, due to a relatively poor increase. WINNERs are Turkey and China.

GARMENTS COMPETITION MATRIX 11 WINNERS 00 MARGINALS 01 LOSERS 10 INCREASING China Turkey Romania EU 15 Hungary

LEATHER

COMMENTS ON IMPORTS OF LEATHER Total imports have fairly increased: +14,85%, Their concentration is very high, one country, the EU15, accounts for over 90% of totasl imports. Because of an increase slightly below the average, the EU15 is ranked as a LOSER. However – considering the almost monopolistic base – its overall performance is to be considered good. There are no true WINNERS. However the “Others” group of countries should be investigated in order to identify the country that is responsible for the good performance China is INCREASING but still it covers a minor market share.

LEATHER COMPETITION MATRIX 11 WINNERS 00 MARGINALS 01 LOSERS 10 INCREASING Others China EU 15 Indonesia

SHOES

COMMENTS ON IMPORTS OF SHOES Total imports have considerably increased: +36,87%, Their concentration is high, three countries make up over 90% of total imports. China is increasing fast and it is the real WINNER. Also Turkey is a WINNER with good performance in growth and market share. EU15 is ranked as a LOSER, since its market share is fast shrinking. Slovakia and Hungary are also increasing.

SHOES COMPETITION MATRIX 11 WINNERS 00 MARGINALS 01 LOSERS 10 INCREASING China Turkey Slovakia Hungary Romania Poland EU 15

EXPORTS

Bulgarian exports increased 62%, well above the average. YARNS AND FABRICS TRENDS OF EXPORTS 2003 -2001 COUNTRY % ROMANIA 76,61 Bulgarian exports increased 62%, well above the average. A very good performance. BULGARIA 62,22 HUNGARY 45,16 POLAND 37,05 LATVIA 14,05 LITHUANIA 5,85 SLOVAKIA 1,04 CZECH -2,17 ESTONIA -4,29 SLOVENIA -26,99 TOT AV. 20,85

Bulgaria, in the second position, had a very good performance. GARMENTS TRENDS OF EXPORTS 2003 -2001 COUNTRY % ROMANIA 47,09 Bulgaria, in the second position, had a very good performance. BULGARIA 22,78 LATVIA 19,48 HUNGARY 9,11 ESTONIA 1,91 POLAND 0,05 SLOVAKIA -0,65 LITHUANIA -2,25 SLOVENIA -6,25 CZECH -12,56 TOT AV. 7,87

Bulgaria decreased exports significantly. LEATHER TRENDS OF EXPORTS 2003 -2001 COUNTRY % HUNGARY 126,04 LATVIA 49,22 Bulgaria decreased exports significantly. Some weakenesses are emerging. SLOVAKIA 12,13 SLOVENIA 6,56 CZECH -9,72 BULGARIA -22,22 LITHUANIA -28,31 ROMANIA na POLAND na ESTONIA na TOT AV. 19,10

SHOES TRENDS OF EXPORTS 2003 -2001 COUNTRY % SLOVAKIA 38,38 BULGARIA 12,13 Bulgaria scored a +12,13%; a good result in a generally decreasing context. LATVIA 2,42 POLAND -14,93 HUNGARY -26,40 CZECH -37,99 LITHUANIA -43,31 ROMANIA na SLOVENIA na ESTONIA na TOT AV. -9,96