FROM TRUMP RHETHORIC TO THE REALITIES OF CHIMERICA

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FROM TRUMP RHETHORIC TO THE REALITIES OF CHIMERICA BRICS Seminar, Departamento de Economia UAM, Azcapotzalco, June 8, 2017 Guilhem Fabre, Université Paul Valery, Montpellier 3

MAOTRUMP

US DEFICIT IN TRADE OF GOODS WITH CHINA: 2001-2016

US TRADE BALANCE WITH CANADA, MEXICO, CHINA & RoW, 2002-2015

US TRADE BALANCE IN GOODS & SERVICES AS PERCENT OF GDP, 2000-2016

CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GDP GROWTH: CHINA, EU, US RoW, 2000…

CHANGES IN US-CHINA ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP AFTER THE 2008 GFC

US TRADE WITH CHINA 1999-2014

TOP TEN US IMPORTS/ COUNTRY 2014

TOP TEN US EXPORTS BY COUNTRY 2014

US JOBS SUPPORTED BY US EXPORTS 2015

REAL GROWTH RATE OF PER CAPITA HOUSEHOLD INCOME, CHINA & OECD

CHINA’s SHARE OF GLOBAL MANUFACTURING: 1990-2012

US SHARE OF GLOBAL MANUFACTURING, 1970-2015

MANUFACTURING OUTPUT SINCE 1970 : TOP FIVE COUNTRIES IN 2014

CHINA AS THE WORLD’S FACTORY 1991-2012 = Rise of Chinese global share of manufacturing : from 4,1 to 24 % 1991-2013 : Rise of Chinese global share of manufacturing exports: from 2,3 to 18,8 % EFFECTS ON GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY POSITIVE EFFECTS ON COMMODITIES : LATIN AMERICA

COMMODITY PRICES SINCE CHINESE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IN 2012

CHINA’s SLOWDOWN & IMPACT ON COMMODITY PRICES: 2012-2016

US JOBS DISPLACED BY THE TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA SINCE 2001

WALMART’S SHARE OF JOBS LOST

Effect of a $1000 per worker increase in imports from China on U. S Effect of a $1000 per worker increase in imports from China on U.S. govt. tranfers

US INTRA-FIRM TRADE: 2014

CHINA PROCESSING EXPORTS AS SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS 1995-2017

CHINA’s SHARE OF US IMPORTS: TOP FOUR CATEGORIES, 2003-2017

MANUFACTURING TRADE NET OF PROCESSING IMPORTS, 1996-2017

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS I-Phones 5 & 6

U.S EMPLOYMENT OF FOREIGN AFFILIATES BY MAJOR REGIONS, 2000-2014

SALES DESTINATION OF FOREIGN AFFILIATES OF U.S. MNCs, 2014

U.S. MULTINATIONALS’ SALES IN CHINA

INWARD & OUTWARD STOCK OF FDI BY MAJOR REGION & COUNTRY, 2015

STOCK OF FDI BY COUNTRY, 2014

RATIO OF OUTBOUND FDI TO GDP 2014

RATIO OF FDI STOCK in U.S. TO GDP 2015

FDI STOCKS IN THE US, BY COUNTRY 2015 : CHINA = - 1%

CHINESE FDI TRANSACTIONS IN THE U.S. BY INDUSTRY, 2000-2016

MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF US-LISTED CHINESE COMPANIES. BY INDUSTRY, 2016

CHINA = 55% OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET 2014

CHINA : 96th in EASE OF DOING BUSINESS RANKING . 2013

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