Stephany Taylor1,2, Tanya Spero1 and Megan Mallard1

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air.

Advertisements

Plant Sector Workshop March 21, MIT – Progress on the Science of Weather and Climate ExtremesMarch 29, 2012 Motivation –Billion-dollar Disasters.

S ENSITIVITIES OF S PECTRAL N UDGING T OWARD M OISTURE FOR R EGIONAL C LIMATE M ODELING Tanya L. Otte 1, Martin J. Otte 1, Jared H. Bowden 2, and Christopher.

The Climate and the Human Activities The Climate and the Human Activities Natural Variations of the Water Cycle Natural Variations of the Water Cycle Water.

El Nino. El Nino – Typical surface ocean circulation.

S ENSITIVITIES OF S PECTRAL N UDGING T OWARD M OISTURE Tanya L. Otte 1, Martin J. Otte 1, Jared H. Bowden 2, and Christopher G. Nolte 1 1 U.S. Environmental.

Jordan Bell NASA SPoRT Summer Intern  Background  Goals of Project  Methodology  Analysis of Land Surface Model Results  Severe weather case.

Jared H. Bowden Saravanan Arunachalam

Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM Using WRF Yang Gao 1, Joshua S. Fu 1, Yun-Fat Lam 1, John Drake 1, Kate Evans 2 1 University of Tennessee, USA 2 Oak Ridge.

Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Systems PPT

Multiscale Kain-Fritsch Scheme: Formulations and Tests

1 An Overview of the NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting NCAR, Boulder, CO April ,

Warm Season Precipitation Predictions over North America with the Eta Regional Climate Model Model Sensitivity to Initial Land States and Choice of Domain.

Simulations of Floods and Droughts in the Western U.S. Under Climate Change L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher.

Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

Jerold Herwehe 1, Kiran Alapaty 1, Chris Nolte 1, Russ Bullock 1, Tanya Otte 1, Megan Mallard 1, Jimy Dudhia 2, and Jack Kain 3 1 Atmospheric Modeling.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93”

NARCCAP Users Meeting April 2011 Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based on Mearns et al. (BAMS, 2011) Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based.

Improvements of WRF Simulation Skills of Southeast United States Summer Rainfall: Focus on Physical Parameterization and Horizontal Resolution Laifang.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Going the Extra Mile in Downscaling:

In this study, HWRF model simulations for two events were evaluated by analyzing the mean sea level pressure, precipitation, wind fields and hydrometeors.

Regional Climate Simulations of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico Kingtse Mo, Jae Schemm, Wayne Higgins, and H. K. Kim.

Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model Study on Tropical Mesoscale System During SCOUT DARWIN Campaign Wuhu Feng 1 and M.P. Chipperfield 1 IAS, School of Earth.

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Regional Modeling using MODIS SST composites Prepared.

Impact of Tropical Easterly Waves during the North American Monsoon (NAM) using a Mesoscale Model Jennifer L. Adams CIMMS/University of Oklahoma Dr. David.

Travis D. Miller Department of Soil and Crop Sciences Texas AgriLife Extension Service The 2011 drought situation: July, 2011 Travis D. Miller Professor,

Monsoon Onset Dates on the Tohono O'odham Nation Josef Marlow Tohono O'odham Community College.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Using Dynamical Downscaling to Project.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Modeling the Health Impacts of Changes.

The lower boundary condition of the atmosphere, such as SST, soil moisture and snow cover often have a longer memory than weather itself. Land surface.

NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting February , 2008 Boulder, CO.

Evapotranspiration Estimates over Canada based on Observed, GR2 and NARR forcings Korolevich, V., Fernandes, R., Wang, S., Simic, A., Gong, F. Natural.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

NARCCAP Meeting September 2009 Results from NCEP-driven RCMs ~ Overview ~ Results from NCEP-driven RCMs ~ Overview ~ William J. Gutowski, Jr. & Raymond.

Using WRF for Regional Climate Modeling: An Emphasis on the Southeast U.S. for Future Air Quality Jared H. Bowden (UNC) Kevin D. Talgo (UNC) Tanya L. Spero.

CLIMATE OF WNC: TRENDS & HISTORY Jake Crouch October 13, 2014 NOAA’S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER.

Impacts of Meteorological Conditions Modified by Urban Expansion on Surface Ozone over Yangtz River Delta and Pearl River Delta region, China Xuemei Wang,

1 Xiaoyan Jiang, Guo-Yue Niu and Zong-Liang Yang The Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin 03/20/2007 Feedback between the atmosphere,

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations Christopher G. Nolte1.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.

Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern U.S. Tanya L. Spero 1, Christopher G. Nolte 1, Kiran Alapaty 1, O. Russell Bullock 1, Megan.

ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.

Developing Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas Megan Mallard ORISE Postdoctoral Fellow Atmospheric.

Evaluation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves Developed from Dynamically Downscaled Regional WRF Simulations Chuen Meei Gan1 & Tanya Spero2 1)

Does nudging squelch the extremes in regional climate modeling?

Land Use in Regional Climate Modeling

Climate Events and Impacts over China in 2016

Tanya L. Spero1, Megan S. Mallard1, Stephany M

Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A.

C. Nolte, T. Spero, P. Dolwick, B. Henderson, R. Pinder

IMPROVING HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS IN A MESOSCALE MODEL VIA MICROPHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATION METHODS By Cerese Albers & Dr. TN Krishnamurti- FSU Dept.

Will Extremes Become the Norm under Future Climate Change?

Anna M. Jalowska and Tanya Spero

Modeling the effects of climate change on US mid 21st century PM2

Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology—case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City Yuqiang.

An Overview of the NARCCAP WRF Simulations and Analysis

Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental U.S

Junhua Zhang and Wanmin Gong

Seong Soo Yum1, Wonheung Kim1, Jae-In Song1 and Chang Ki Kim2

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

Using Dynamical Downscaling to Project Changes in Air Quality

Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

A Multimodel Drought Nowcast and Forecast Approach for the Continental U.S. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

William Flamholtz, Brian Tang, and Lance Bosart

Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental U.S

Presentation transcript:

Comparing Extreme Events Simulated by WRF Using USGS and NLCD Land Use Data Sets Stephany Taylor1,2, Tanya Spero1 and Megan Mallard1 1US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC 2North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Greensboro, NC 15th Annual CMAS Conference October 26, 2016

Motivation Extreme weather events have catastrophic impacts on society. Climate change can alter frequency and intensity of extreme events. Need to simulate extreme events with confidence. Currently using USGS land use for regional climate modeling. Want to update to NLCD land use Better representation in US, especially at higher resolution Better alignment with configuration used at EPA for AQ modeling Using NOAH LSM in WRF NLCD not tested with NOAH Is there an impact on simulating extreme events in WRF by changing from USGS to NLCD?

Methodology WRFV3.8 with downscaling physics/nudging options (Spero et al. 2016) Two continuous runs: Oct 1987 – Dec 1990 (analyzed 1988-1990) USGS 24-category land use NLCD/MODIS 40-category land use 108-36-km North American domain, focus on 36-km CONUS Comparisons to: North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), 32-km Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation reanalysis, 0.25-deg USGS NLCD

NC Severe Storm Outbreak May 1-6, 1989 $1B damages Midwest Drought/Heat Wave 1988 >5,000 Deaths $40B damages Texas/Arkansas Flooding May 11-19, 1990 >$1B damages 13 Deaths Hurricane Hugo Sept. 21-22, 1989 >100 Deaths >$7B damages Tropical Storm Marco Oct. 10-13, 1990 $57M damages 7 deaths Deep Freeze Dec. 21-26, 1989 ~$5B agricultural/crop damages

Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Comparisons for Drought Case June 1988 Both LU data runs: Have similar precip. patterns. Over predict precip. over SE and northern US border. Under estimate rainfall across NM and central TX. USGS over saturates southern MO and KY. NLCD over estimate precip. over northern MO. NLCD matches better to CPC data over northern NY.

Average Soil Temperature and Moisture in the Top Layer for July and August 1988 Drought Case Both LU simulations: Over estimate temperatures/soil dryness over NV/UT. Under predicts temperatures and over predicts soil moisture across the NE. NLCD drier than USGS across NE, lower MS River Valley and GA coastline. USGS drier than NLCD near central TX.

Severe Storms May 1-6, 1989 GOES 7 Infrared Satellite Image

Severe Storms May 1-6, 1989 Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Both LU simulations: Under estimates precip. USGS has a wider precip. pattern over TX/OK and the Carolinas. NLCD matches CPC better over New England. GOES 7 Infrared Satellite Image.

Hurricane Hugo Sept. 21-22, 1989 GOES 7 Infrared Satellite Image

Hurricane Hugo Sept. 21-22, 1989 Accumulated Precipitation Both LU categories have precip. discontinuity over the Appalachian Mountains.

Deep Freeze Dec. 21-26, 1989

Deep Freeze Dec. 21-26, 1989 2-meter Temperature (K) Both LU simulations have similar temperature patterns. USGS matches NARR better over southern TX. NLCD matches NARR better over NC.

Flooding Event May 11-19, 1990 Flooding of the Trinity, Red and Arkansas rivers resulted in 13 casualties and $1.0 billion in damages.

Flooding May 11-19, 1990 Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Both LU runs substantially misrepresent precip. coverage for this flooding event. USGS has more precip. coverage over the SE. NLCD matches CPC better across the NE.

Tropical Storm Marco Oct. 10-13, 1990 Tropical Storm Marco Track GOES 7 Visible Satellite Image

Tropical Storm Marco Oct. 10-13, 1990 Accumulated Precipitation (mm) USGS correctly estimates precip. over west coastal FL. NLCD has better precip. coverage over eastern NC.

Summary NLCD soil moisture tends to be drier than USGS over eastern U.S. across all case studies. Similar precipitation patterns for all events, regardless of LU. Usually USGS has “wider” precip. than NLCD. USGS often better for high precip. events in SE. NLCD tends to be better for precip. in NE. Warmer temperatures in NLCD than USGS, especially in the SE. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Supplemental material WRF Parameterizations used: Noah Land Surface Model WRF single moment 6-class microphysics scheme Rapid radiative transfer model for global models for short and longwave radiation scheme MM5 Monin-Obukhov similarity surface scheme Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme Run Time: Oct. 1987-Dec. 1990 REFERENCE: Spero, T., Chris Nolte, J. Bowden, M. Mallard, AND J. Herwehe. The Impact of Incongruous Lake Temperatures on Regional Climate Extremes Downscaled from the CMIP5 Archive Using the WRF Model. Journal of Climate. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 29(2):839-853, (2016).