The British Election Study Harold D. Clarke (Essex and UT Dallas) David Sanders (Essex) Marianne Stewart (Essex and UT Dallas) Paul Whiteley (Essex)

The Brief from the Funding Agency - the Economic and Social Research Council To explain the outcome of the General Election To explain why people choose one party rather than another if they vote To explain why some people vote when others do not To examine the effects of the election on British politics and society more generally.

What Explains Elections? ‘Class is the basis of British party politics: all else is embellishment and detail’. Peter Pulzer, Political Representation and Elections (Macmillan, 1967): p. 98

Class and Voting in 1974 Source: British Election Study, (Feb) 1974 ConservativesLabourLiberalsOther parties Did Not Vote Middle Class % Intermediate Class % Working Class %

Class and Voting in 2010 British Election Study, post-election face-to-face survey 2010 ConservativesLabourLiberalsOther parties Did Not Vote Middle Class % Intermediate Class % Working Class %

What Explains Voting? Public evaluations of leaders Party identification – ‘Brand Loyalty’ Public perceptions of issues Campaigning. Demographics (eg. Class)

Public Evaluations of Gordon Brown Continuous Monitoring Survey, 2010

LEADER IMAGES (Gordon Brown meets Mrs Duffy)

Public Evaluations of the Party Leaders During the Campaign Internet Campaign Survey, 2010

The Relationship between Liking Gordon Brown and Voting Labour Face-to-Face survey

The Relationship between Liking David Cameron and Voting Conservative Face-to-Face survey

The Relationship between Liking Nick Clegg and Voting Liberal Democrat Face-to-Face survey Dislike

Partisanship ‘Generally speaking do you think of yourself as Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, or what?’

Percentage of Partisans Voting for Their Preferred Party in 2010 face-to-face survey Not Voting

Issues in 2010

The Most Important Issue Facing the Country in 2010 face-to-face survey

Party Best at Handling the Respondent’s Most Important Issue face-to-face survey

Percentages saying a party is best at handling their most important issue who voted for that party Face to face survey

Campaigning (‘I agree with Nick’)

Campaigning - Which Party has contacted you in the last Six months? Face to face survey, 2010 (29 per cent reported being contacted)

Which Leader Ran the Best Campaign? Internet Campaign Survey, 2010

Which Leader Ran the Worst Campaign?

Percentages changing votes as a result of the Television Debates Post-Election Face-to-Face survey

What Has Happened Since the Election?

Trends in Leader Scores October 2009 to October 2010 Continuous Monitoring Survey

Trends in Partisanship October 2009 to October 2010

Which Party is Best at Managing the Economy? October 2009 to October 2010 Continuous Monitoring Survey

Trends Economic Optimism-Pessimism October 2009 to October 2010 Continuous Monitoring Survey ‘How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months?’

Trends in Voting Intentions October 2009 to October 2010 Continuous Monitoring Survey

The Future – Who will win the AV Referendum?

Vote in the AV Referendum (September 2010 Continuous Monitoring Survey) Do you want the United Kingdom to adopt the 'alternative vote' system instead of the current 'first past the post' system for electing Members of Parliament to the House of Commons?

‘My member of Parliament tries hard to look after the interests of people who live in my constituency’. (pre-election internet survey. N= 16,816)

‘My member of Parliament tries hard to look after the interests of people who live in my constituency’ (pre-election internet survey. N= 16,816)