presented by Marcus Spiller Director, SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd Victoria Budget A metro regional perspective

Fundamentals of the Victorian economy very strong –Enabled rapid repair of revenue lines State well poised for output growth and asset enrichment in base-load services Scope for some strategic initiatives which would have been unthinkable a year ago 2 Budget 'message'

stimulus was vital... 3 Largest since contribution to growth (Melb)

...but confidence soon took over.. 4 Quarterly GDP Growth Government Stimulus

an economy hungry for workers.... 5

...is driving population growth... 6 Melbourne Population Growth Rate

7 GDP Growth Transforming Victoria

8 Melbourne Industry Share (VA)

9 Victorian International Trade Transforming Victoria

How was Victoria transformed? Sectoral reform –Commercialisation, corporatisation and privatisation –Market design Labour market reform ‘Settlement pattern shaping’ infrastructure –City Link –Western Ring Road –Docklands –Federation Square –Regional fast trains –East Link –Melbourne Exhibition and Convention Centre 10

Does this budget have the same strategic vision? Key ‘economy shaping’ initiative is Regional Rail Link –Will help build effective density and boost productivity The ‘spatiality’ of the economy now holds the key to boosting productivity 11

Effective Job Density 12 Doubling effective density leads to a 7% improvement in labour productivity Access to opportunity builds human capital

self contained metro regions 13

Scope for productivity enhancement 15

Alignment with spatial strategy? Budget commitment to accelerate intensification of employment and housing in CAD’s welcome, but modest. Affordable housing as a human capital development issue. Market design agenda could usefully be extended –Congestion pricing –Value capture 16

Summing up A sound budget which capitalises on 15 years of strategic infrastructure investment and reform Scope to advance transformation of the Victorian economy –Agglomeration and productivity –Market design 17