Analysis of New York State Medicaid Program Enrollment by Month: Beginning 2009 TEAM #3 : TEAM PROJECT PRESENTATION (DATA MINING) DCS861A EMERGING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES II S.FEDDOCK, J. FLYNN, M. KIRCHHOFF, N. NASSAR, J. SICURANZA 1

Content  Introduction  Dataset  Tools  Methodology  Analysis  Findings  Limitations  Future Work  References  Questions  Contact Information 2

Introduction  Evaluate the number of New York State Medicaid enrollees by eligibility year and month within each economic region, health insurance plan information, and demographics using data mining algorithms and tools.  Are there differences in the number of enrollees by race, age, gender, or economic region within NYS?  What is the difference for dual eligibility by age?  Most enrollments?  Least enrollments? 3

Dataset  This dataset aggregates and displays the number of New York State Medicaid enrollees by  Eligibility year and month  Economic Region  Health Insurance Plan Information  Enrollee Demographics  Last Updated March 19,

Tools  Weka is a collection of machine learning algorithms for data mining tasks.  Tools for data pre-processing, classification, regression, clustering, association rules, and visualization.  Used Chapter 17 Weka Explorer Tutorial in Data Mining Book as guidance 5

Methodology  Preprocessing Filters  12 Attributes: 3 Numeric; 9 String  Conversion of 9 attributes to “StringToNominal”  Classify  ZeroR: Baseline and Mode  J48: Decision Tree  Cluster  SimpleKMeans: Euclidean Distance (length of line segment between points p and q)  Associator  Apriori: Frequency of item in data set, Highlights general trends 6

Analysis  Data  Preprocessing  Classify  Cluster  Associate 7

Data  Instances619,437  Attributes12  Data Dictionary provided in Word Document. 8

Data  5Eligibility Year  12Eligibility Month  11Economic Region  3Aid Category  2Dual Eligible  2Managed Care v FFS  84Plan Name  10Plan Type  2Gender  4Age Group  6Race  12,087Number of Recipients 9

Data Visual 10

Preprocessing  12 Attributes  9 String  3 Numeric  Converted 9 String Attributes to StringToNominal 11

Classify  Attributes:  Economic_Region  Race  Age_Group  ZeroR  Base line predicts New York City, WHITE,  J48  Number of Leaves:61  Size of Tree:72 Economic_RegionRaceAge Mid-Hudson BLACK45-64 Mohawk Valley WHITE45-64 New York City HISPANIC45-64 North County WHITE21-44 OTHER WHITE00-20 Southern Tier BLACK21-44 Western WHITE45-64 Capital District WHITE45-64 Central WHITE45-64 Finger Lakes WHITE45-64 Long Island WHITE

Age Group and Economic Region 13

Classify  Preprocessing 14

Cluster  SimpleKMeans 15

Results (Region and Age Group) 16

Results (Plan Name and Plan Type) 17

Associate 18

Findings The Age_Group 65+ has almost an equal division for Dual_Eligible Medicare Medicaid 19

Findings  The largest population of NYS Medicaid Enrollees are:  Race: White  Age:

Findings  The highest amount of enrollees in a given time was 77,493  Month and Year: January 2013  Econonic_Region: New York City  AID_CATEGORY: TANF/SN  DUAL: No  MCC_v_FFS: Managed Care  Plan: HealthFirst  Type: HMO/PHSP  Race: Hispanic  Gender: Female  Age:

Findings  There were 105,507 instance of single enrollments by Month, Year, Region, Aid, Dual, MC_FFS, Name, Type, Gender, Age, Race and Enrollees  Gender:  Female - 53,269  Male – 52,238  Age:  ,932  ,614  ,856  65+33,105 22

Limitations  There is approximately a three months lag for eligibility information, meaning that the most complete and current data will always be at least three months old.  This allows for the eligibility data to be complete at the time of the release.  Medicaid enrollment, aid category assignment, and managed care enrollment are subject to change over time due to changes in beneficiary eligibility status. 23

Future Work  Are there differences in the number of enrollees by aid category, dual eligibility status, or Medicaid Managed Care vs. Fee For Service?  How does the number of enrollees change over time?  Does the proportion of enrollees by race, age, gender, or economic region change over time?  Does the proportion of enrollees by aid category, dual eligibility status, or Medicaid Managed Care vs. Fee For Service change over time? 24

References 1. beginning /m4hz-kzn3/abouthttps://health.data.ny.gov/Health/Medicaid-Program-Enrollment-by-Month-Beginning- 200/m4hz-kzn3/about B04BD35?download=true

Questions ??? 26

Contact Information   J.  M.  N.  J. 27

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