Framing a “Wicked” Debate: Subsistence, Nutrition, and Indigenous Rights Versus Deforestation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change Cynthia Fowler, Wofford College

Wicked Elements in the Problem of Socio-environmental Change on Sumba Divergent perspectives Incomplete understanding Variable causes and effects Changing conditions Resolutions require risky tradeoffs

Sidestepping the Wicked Scale Bias Multilevel question – How do Sumbanese and non Sumbanese perceive socio- environmental change on Sumba? Global, regional, national level questions – What are the contributions of agriculture to emissions of global warming gases? – What types of and how much emissions do agricultural fires produce? Local level questions – What types of agropastoral fires occur on Sumba? – What are the socio-environmental changes occurring in agropastoral communities on the island of Sumba in Eastern Indonesia?

Global GHG Emissions By Source EPA 2014

Emissions of Methane and Nitrous Oxide from Burning Crop Residues in Indonesia FAOSTAT 2014

Main Crops in Kodi, Sumba Rainfed Rice Paddy Rice Cassava

Emissions from Burning Crop Residues FAOSTAT 2014

Emissions of CO2eq from Burning Biomass in All Types of Land Cover FAOSTAT 2014

Emissions from Burning Crop Residues in Indonesia FAOSTAT 2014

Climate Change Predictions for Indonesia MIXED, BENIGN, UNKNOWN  Increase in temperature of 2-2.5°C  Increase in precipitation of 0-10% CONS  Rising atmospheric CO2 may produce stronger El Niños  Delayed onset of monsoon season  Delayed harvests – Decreased yields – Greater food insecurity  Increased Asian monsoon intensity More severe droughts associated with El Niños  Cyclones may decrease in number of occurrences but increase in severity  Rise in sea levels by 0.6 – 1.0 meter with 10% increase in the intensity of 1 in 100 year storm surges

Implications for Climate Change on Global Health in Indonesia WATER Increase in water scarcity (Béguin et al. 2011) No changes in the number of people who suffer from water stress (Met Office 2011) Moderate to high levels of water security throughout Indonesia relative to other countries (Vörösmarty et al. 2010) FOOD Increase in food insecurity Food security from agricultural products remains stable for another 40 years Decrease of 11% by 2050 in kilocalories available from food Increase of 300,000 children who are malnourished by 2050 Increase of 19% in malnourishment among people of all ages by 2050 MARINE RESOURCES Decrease of 23% 9 in marine fisheries, which is one of the largest reductions in marine fisheries in the world A 23% decrease in 10-year averaged maximum marine catch between 2005 and 2055 Decrease of food from marine resources MAIZE A 3.83% decrease in maize yields to 2020, 7.52% decrease after 2050, and 10.60% decrease after 2080 CO2 enrichment will decrease yields of irrigated maize by 2050 CO2 enrichment may decrease or increase yields of rainfed maize by 2050 RICE A 1.02% decrease in rice yields to 2020, a 1.53% increase in rice yields after 2050, and 0.50% decrease after 2080 CO2 fertilization will improve yields of rainfed and irrigated rice, soybeans, and ground nuts by 2050 RESIDENCE Displacement of 2 million people due to sea level rise DISEASES Shifting disease patterns

Judgments about Fire Ecology on Sumba CONS  Burning is illegal  Burning produces damaging emissions  Sometimes out of control fires damage property and harm people MIXED, BENIGN, UNKNOWN  Fire frequencies are extremely high  Most fires are low intensity PROS  Burning is an important crop production technique  Burning is culturally meaningful  Most fires are controlled