Survey Methodology Survey Subjects Ordinary persons of at least 20 years of age whose household is registered in one of 20 counties and cities of Taiwan.

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Presentation transcript:

Survey Methodology Survey Subjects Ordinary persons of at least 20 years of age whose household is registered in one of 20 counties and cities of Taiwan. Survey Method A telephone survey conducted using random sampling. Survey Period From June 6 to June 7, 2015, between 2:00 pm and 5:30 pm and between 6:30 pm and 10:00 pm. Sampling Procedure Stratified proportional random sampling. Sampling Error Collected 1,085 valid samples with a sampling error of ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Assessment of Sample Representativeness Weighted for region, sex, age and education level based on the Ministry of the Interior’s December 2014 population data. 2

Survey Topics 3 Administration Approval Ratings ★ Presidential approval ratings ★ Premier’s approval ratings Political Parties ★ Party approval ratings ★ Party preference ★ Party chairs ★ KMT party assets Cross-strait Relations ★ Unification/independence & national identity ★ Attitude toward China ★ Support for “brotherly states” Current Events ★ Positions on Cross-strait ties ★ Tsai Ing-wen’s U.S. trip ★ KMT presidential nomination process ★ 2016 elections outlook

4

73.4% Disapproves of President Ma’s Performance 5 5 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Ma Ying- jeou's performance as president?

73.4% Disapproves of President Ma’s Performance 6 6

Trend Comparison: President Ma’s Approval Ratings 7 7

8

53.1% Disapprove of Premier Mao’s Performance 9 9 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Mao Chi-kuo’s performance as premier?

53.1% Disapprove of Premier Mao’s Performance 10

11 Trend Comparison: Premier Mao’s Approval Ratings 11

12

13

75.1% Disapproves of KMT Performance 14 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)?

% Disapproves of KMT Performance 15

53.3% Disapproves of DPP Performance 16 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)?

53.3% Disapproves of DPP Performance 17

Trend Comparison: Political Party Approval Ratings 18 KMT Approval Ratings

Trend Comparison: Political Party Approval Ratings 19 DPP Approval Ratings

Trend Comparison: KMT Approval Rating–Party Leaning 20

Trend Comparison: DPP Approval Rating–Party Leaning 21

22

DPP Caps KMT in Favorability Ratings 23 Question: Of the 4 major political parties: the Nationalist Party (KMT), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the People First Party (PFP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), which party do you like the most?

DPP Caps KMT in Favorability Ratings 24

Most Dislikes The Public Most Dislikes the KMT 25 Question: Of the 4 major political parties: the Nationalist Party (KMT), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the People First Party (PFP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), which party do you like the least?

Most Dislikes The Public Most Dislikes the KMT 26

Trend Comparison: Most Favored Party 27

Trend Comparison: Least Favored Party 28

29

60.2% Approves of Tsai’s Performance as DPP Chair 30 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the performance of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen?

% Approves of Tsai’s Performance as DPP Chair 31

Trend Comparison: Approval Ratings DPP Chair Tsai 32

47.1 % Approves of Chu’s Performance as KMT Chair 33 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the performance of KMT Chairperson Eric Chu?

% Approves of Chu’s Performance as KMT Chair 34

Trend Comparison: Approval Ratings KMT Chairperson Eric Chu 35

36

35.0% Agrees KMT Should be Renamed Taiwan KMT 37 Question: With the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, Taiwanese consciousness peaked and the ratio of people who perceive China as hostile toward Taiwan increased. Some argue that the KMT must change its name to Taiwan KMT if it wants to win greater public support. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

Trend Comparison: Support for KMT Name Change 38

Trend Comparison: Support for KMT Name Change 39

68.9% Agrees Use of Party Assets Should be Restricted 40 Question: Some people say the KMT has an unfair advantage in elections because it holds huge party assets. Therefore, the utilization of party assets should be legally restricted. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

68.9% Agrees Use of Party Assets Should be Restricted 41

42

Choose Between “Taiwanese” and “Chinese” 43 Question: If you had to choose either "Taiwanese" or "Chinese,” would you identify yourself as "Taiwanese" or "Chinese"?

Choose Between “Taiwanese” and “Chinese” 44

Trend Comparison: “Taiwanese” vs. “Chinese” 45

Trend Comparison: “Taiwanese” vs. “Chinese” by Age Group 46

47

48

70.7% Believes Taiwan is a Sovereign, Independent Country 49 Question: Do you believe that Taiwan’s status quo is that of a sovereign, independent country?

70.7% Believes Taiwan is a Sovereign, Independent Country 50

51 Trend Comparison: Taiwan’s Status Quo - a Sovereign, Independent Country 51

Independence/Unification/Status Quo 52 Question: On relations between Taiwan and China, which of the following options most closely represents your view?

Independence/Unification/Status Quo 53

Trend Comparison: Independence/Unification/Status Quo 54

Trend Comparison: Independence/Unification/Status Quo – by Age Group 55

Trend Comparison: Independence/Unification/Status Quo – by Age Group 56

If Status Quo Were No Longer Viable, 70.9% Supports Taiwan to Become an Independent Country 57 Question: If maintaining the status quo were no longer viable, would you support Taiwan to "unify with China" or to "become an independent country"?

58 If Status Quo Were No Longer Viable, 70.9% Supports Taiwan to Become an Independent Country 58

Trend Comparison: “Unification with China” or “Becoming an Independent Country” 59

60

58.4% Considers China Hostile to Taiwan 61 Question: Overall, do you consider China friendly or hostile towards Taiwan?

58.4% Considers China Hostile to Taiwan 62

Trend Comparison: Friendly or Hostile China? 63

73.9% Unfavorable or Indifferent toward China 64 Question: Overall, is your attitude toward China favorable, unfavorable or indifferent? Total 73.9%

73.9% Unfavorable or Indifferent toward China 65

Trend Comparison: Attitude toward China 66

67

59.0% Agrees with “Brotherly States” Concept 68 Question: Some people suggest Taiwan and China could establish equal and friendly relations as "brotherly states." Do you agree?

59.0% Agrees with “Brotherly States” Concept 69

Trend Comparison: Support for “Brotherly States” 70

71

72

56.3% Disagrees with Eric Zhu’s ‘one China’ Stance 73 Question: When meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, KMT Chairman Eric Chu stated that “both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to ‘one China’.” Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

56.3% Disagrees with Eric Zhu’s ‘one China’ Stance 74

71.8% Agrees with Tsai Ing-wen’s Take on ‘Status Quo’ 75 Question: During her U.S. trip, DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen elaborated that maintaining the status quo means the continued development of cross-strait relations under the existing Constitution of the Republic of China, in line with the will of the Taiwanese people and on the basis of more than 20 years of negotiations and exchanges. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

% Agrees with Tsai Ing-wen’s Take on ‘Status Quo ’

67.6% Agrees with Tsai’s ‘Consistent, Predictable and Sustainable Cross-Strait Ties’ 77 Question: Tsai Ing-wen has promised should she win the presidency in 2016 she will work for consistent, predictable and sustainable cross- strait relations. Do you agree or disagree with this approach?

% Agrees with Tsai’s ‘Consistent, Predictable and Sustainable Cross-Strait Ties’

49.2% Confident DPP can Maintain Peaceful and Stable Cross-strait Ties after Return to Power 79 Question: Should the DPP return to power in 2016, are you confident that the DPP will be able to maintain peaceful and stable cross-strait relations?

49.2% Confident DPP can Maintain Peaceful and Stable Cross-strait Ties after Return to Power 80

Trend Comparison: Confidence in Peaceful Cross-strait Ties under DPP 81

82

64.4% Approves of Tsai’s Performance in U.S. 83 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Tsai Ing-wen’s performance during her U.S. visit?

64.4% Approves of Tsai’s Performance in U.S. 84

71.3% Believes Tsai’s U.S. Trip Helps her Campaign 85 Question: Overall, do you believe that Tsai’s U.S. trip will benefit her presidential campaign?

71.3% Believes Tsai’s U.S. Trip Helps her Campaign 86

87

45.7% Believes U.S. Greatest Influence on Taiwan’s Presidential Elections 88 Question: In your opinion, which country – China, Japan or the United States - exerts the greatest influence on Taiwan’s presidential elections?

45.7% Believes U.S. Greatest Influence on Taiwan’s Presidential Elections 89

Trend Comparison: Foreign Influence on Taiwan’s Presidential Elections 90

Would Chinese Preferences Influence your Voting? 91 Question: Should China openly favor a certain candidate in Taiwan’s presidential elections, would you support the said candidate?

Would Chinese Preferences Influence your Voting? 92

Trend Comparison: Chinese Preferences and Voting Behavior 93

55.7% Believes ‘Economy’ Top Issue for New Leader 94 Question: In your opinion, which issue should top the agenda of Taiwan’s coming president?

55.7% Believes ‘Economy’ Top Issue for New Leader 95

Trend Comparison: Top Agenda Item for Taiwan’s New President 96

97

41.3% Approves of Hung Hsiu-chu as KMT Candidate 98 Question: If the KMT nominated lawmaker Hung Hsiu-chu as its presidential candidate, would you approve or disapprove of her presidential bid?

41.3% Approves of Hung Hsiu-chu as KMT Candidate 99

Question: Tsai Ing-wen is the DPP presidential candidate. If the KMT nominated lawmaker Hung Hsiu-chu for the presidential ticket, whom would you support to become Taiwan’s next president – Tsai or Hung? Hung Hsiu-chu vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Polls

Hung Hsiu-chu vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Polls

102

Wang Jin-pyng Favored KMT Presidential Candidate Question: If you were to choose among KMT politicians Eric Chu, Wu Den-yih, Wang Jin-pyng and Hung Hsiu-chu, whom would you want to run for the KMT in the 2016 presidential elections?

Wang Favored KMT Presidential Candidate

Trend Comparison: Support for KMT Presidential Hopefuls

Question: Tsai Ing-wen is the DPP presidential candidate. If the KMT nominated lawmaker Eric Chu for the presidential ticket, whom would you support to become Taiwan’s next president – Tsai or Chu? Eric Chu vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections

Eric Chu vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections

Trend Comparison: Eric Chu vs. Tsai Ing-wen

Wu Den-yih vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections Question: Tsai Ing-wen is the DPP presidential candidate. If the KMT nominated lawmaker Wu Den-yih for the presidential ticket, whom would you support to become Taiwan’s next president – Tsai or Wu?

Wu Den-yih vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections

Trend Comparison: Wu Den-yih vs. Tsai Ing-wen

Wang Jin-pyng vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections Question: Tsai Ing-wen is the DPP presidential candidate. If the KMT nominated lawmaker Wang Jin-pyng for the presidential ticket, whom would you support to become Taiwan’s next president – Tsai or Wang?

Wang Jin-pyng vs. Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 Elections

Trend Comparison: Wang Jin-pyng vs. Tsai Ying-wen