SEASONALITY with a TREND Operations Management Dr. Ron Lembke.

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Presentation transcript:

SEASONALITY with a TREND Operations Management Dr. Ron Lembke

Seasonality with a Trend Demand goes up and down on a regular, time-based pattern AND demand is on a long-term upward (or downward) trend

Trend & Seasonality Deseasonalize to find the trend 1.Calculate seasonal relatives 2.Deseasonalize the demand 3.Find trend of deseasonalized line Project trend into the future 4.Project trend line into future 5.Multiply trend line by seasonal relatives.

Washoe Gaming Win, Looks like a downhill slide -Silver Legacy opened 95Q3 -Otherwise, upward trend Source: Comstock Bank, Survey of Nevada Business & Economics

Washoe Win Definitely a general upward trend, slowed 93-94

Cache Creek Thunder Valley CC Expands 9/11

2013 Forecast using SR Data for LR Seasonal Relatives calculated using data

1.Compute Seasonal Relatives Avg Q Q Q Q Avg230.9 AvgSR Q Q Q Q Divide by = 0.937

2.Deseasonalize YearQuarterGaming WinSeasonal RelativeDeseas ,098, ,978, ,913, ,841, ,227, ,232, ,971, ,212, ,016, ,687, ,330, ,520, ,608, ,315, ,601, ,215, ,138, ,937, ,122, ,431, ,912, ,143, ,510, ,119, ,417, ,303, ,305, ,783, ,825, ,248, ,760, ,840,777 Divide 198,098,500 by = 202,978,936

3.LR on Deseas data Period Deseasonalized 1 202,978, ,841, ,232, ,319, ,687, ,520, ,315, ,316, ,937, ,431, ,143, ,220, ,303, ,783, ,248, ,936,554

4.Project trend line into future

5.Multiply by Seasonal Relatives PeriodQ Linear Trend Line Seasonal Relative Seasonalized Forecast ,330, ,141, ,654, ,076, ,978, ,514, ,303, ,451,313

Summary 1.Calculate seasonal relatives 2.Deseasonalize 1.Divide actual demands by seasonal relatives 3.Do a LR 4.Project the LR into the future 5.Seasonalize 1.Multiply straight-line forecast by relatives