Informed NPS Air Quality Management Decisions in Response to a Changing Climate

Climate Change: A Potential new “Source” of Pollutant Increased wildfireEcosystem alterations e.g. beetle kill Increased dust storms Increased biogenic emissions Changes in human activates Population shift

Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on NPS AQRVs Emissions Natural – Fires: RN, PM, VOCs, Hg – Vegetation: NH 3, VOCs – Soil: RN, Dust Anthropogenic – Human response – Population shift Atmospheric Processes Transport Precipitation Cloud cover Air Quality Ambient – Particulate Matter – Ozone Deposition – Reactive Nitrogen – Sulfur Compounds – Mercury AQRV (Goals) Visibility – Natural Background Vegetation damage – Critical load Water quality – Critical load Wildlife Cultural resources Air quality forcers in a changing climate Effects ARD: Assess impact on goals and progress Input to ARDRole for ARD

Changing Climate’s Affect on NPS AQRVs Long Term: Impacts on meeting long term AQRV goals – Haze: Change in natural background haze goal Anthropogenic (U.S. and International) contributions to haze due to human adaptation to new climate – Ozone: Primary and secondary NAAQS standards Natural and anthropogenic contributions to ozone in relation to primary and secondary NAAQS – Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition: Change in goals: Shifts in ecology could change the critical load Natural and anthropogenic contributions in relation to critical loads – affect planning (change control strategies)

Changing Climate’s Affect on NPS AQRVs Near term issues – Has recent changes in climate contributed to changes in emissions and air quality? Climate change “contribution” to increased NH 4 wet deposition in the late 90’s and early 2000’s – Effect of wide spread beetle kill on ozone and SOA Transition issues (current to long-term): – How will changes in air quality effect on changing ecosystems Enhance evasive species, push out native species, etc. Then adaptation strategies could be developed

Current Issue Regional precipitation N trends Lehman et al., 2005 Wet nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentration deposition trends Wet ammonium (NH 4 - ) concentration deposition trends Increasing trends not likely due to increased Agricultural activities Trends were greatest from 1995 – 2002; period of increasing temperatures and drought

Future issue: Increased N Compounds from Fires Carrico et al., Fires are a likely large but poorly quantified source if reactive nitrogen As fires increase with a warming climate so will the RN emissions RN from fires is not being considered by others High reactive N concentrations in smoke plume

Current Project: Effects of the Changing Climate on Air Quality and Resources National Parks Assess the impact of climate change on park air quality  Ozone  Nitrogen deposition  Haze Global model (NCAR coupled chemistry-climate model) IPCC 2050 projected emission inventory