INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II The international context: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation, From Bali to Copenhagen Martin Parry Co-Chair 2007 IPCC Assessment, Working Group II 1.Observed effects, now 2.The Copenhagen targets: reduce emissions + adaptation 3.The challenge of mitigation […we have left it late] 4.Adaptation […untested and uncosted] 5.The likelihood of serious residual damage

IPCC - WGII The road to Copenhagen: Two strategies Reduce emissions: - Agree emissions target [eg not exceeding 2 deg C above pre- industrial levels] - Agree the pathway to the target [eg a 50 to 80% reduction in level emissions by 2050, with emissions peaking in 2105] Develop adaptation (the Nairobi Workplan) - identify priorities -agree levels of funding to transfer technologies, skills - fund these within aid programmes (but with transparent ‘additionality’)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II 1. Observed effects, now

IPCC - WGII Rising atmospheric temperature Rising sea level Reductions in NH snow cover Warming is unequivocal

IPCC - WGII Clear decreases in Arctic sea ice extent. A different world in the Arctic:

IPCC - WGII 1. EFFECTS ARE BEING OBSERVED NOW...both regionally: Observed effects in N. America

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II 2. Projected climate change

IPCC - WGII Emissions are increasing and Carbon Dioxide is the largest contributor

IPCC - WGII GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades IPCC SRES scenarios: % increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to r

IPCC - WGII Future temperature changes 0.6 o C 1.8 o C 2.8 o C 3.4 o C

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II 3. Future climate change impacts

IPCC - WGII Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability. There is high confidence that hundreds of millions of people will be exposed to increased water stress. Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)

IPCC - WGII 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming are > o C (relative to ) For global average temperature increases >3.5 o C, models suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) Ecosystems: some impacts are irreversible

IPCC - WGII FOOD: yield decreases, especially at lower latitudes

IPCC - WGII COASTAL SETTLEMENTS Densely populated “megadeltas” especially in Asia and Africa, are most at risk. Tens of millions will be additionally at risk

IPCC - WGII Summary: The most vulnerable people and places: And where priorities are for adaptation Most vulnerable regions are: Africa, Asian mega-deltas, small islands, the Arctic Most vulnerable sectors are: water in the dry tropics agriculture in low latitudes human health in poor countries ecosystems at the margins: e.g. tundra, boreal, mountains or already stressed: e.g. mangroves, coral In all countries, even those with high incomes, some are especially at risk: the poor, young children, the elderly

IPCC - WGII Impacts due to changes in the frequency of extremes eg August 2003, heat wave in western Europe Number of deaths in Paris in summer 2003 Global ‘warming more likely than not’ contributed to this event

IPCC - WGII 2003 W Europe

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II France Dry Danube Croatia - fires UK train tracks buckle AUGUST 2003 HEATWAVE

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II 3. Responding: Adaptation and Mitigation (emissions reduction)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II The timing of impacts by sector (IPCC WGII TS 2007)

IPCC - WGII The timing of impacts: by region (IPCC WGII TS 2007)

IPCC - WGII 0.6 deg C Committed 2 deg C pre-indar‏

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II

IPCC - WGII 50 per cent cuts in emissions by 2050

IPCC - WGII 80 per cent cuts in emissions by 2050

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II Some limited adaptation is occurring now. There are many more adaptation options available, but very few analyses of their cost and efficacy

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group II Conclusions Impacts are occurring now, but adaptation is limited 80 % emissions reductions needed to avoid 2 deg C target Further serious damage is probably not avoidable, even with 2 deg C target Adaptation: - uncosted, untested - priorities are: Sectors: food, water, flood-prone settlement, selected diseases Regions: Africa, tropical/equatorial mega- deltas, small islands