September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification.

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Presentation transcript:

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 2 Spatial pentad mean pattern

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 3 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 31July-4 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 15 July P3-lead, IC 20 July P2-lead, IC 25 July P1-lead, IC 30 July ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 31July-4Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 4 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 5-9 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 20 July P3-lead, IC 25 July P2-lead, IC 30 July P1-lead, IC 4 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 5-9Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 5 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 25 July P3-lead, IC 30 July P2-lead, IC 4 Aug P1-lead, IC 9 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 10-14Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 6 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 30 July P3-lead, IC 4 Aug P2-lead, IC 9 Aug P1-lead, IC 14 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 15-19Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 7 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 4 Aug P3-lead, IC 9 Aug P2-lead, IC 14 Aug P1-lead, IC 19 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 20-24Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 8 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 9 Aug P3-lead, IC 14 Aug P2-lead, IC 19 Aug P1-lead, IC 24 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 25-29Aug

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 9 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 30 Aug-4 Sep, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 14 Aug P3-lead, IC 19 Aug P2-lead, IC 24 Aug P1-lead, IC 29 Aug Actual Forecast valid for Period 30 Aug-3 Sep Anomaly

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 10 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period Sep, 2013 P4-lead, IC 19 Aug P3-lead, IC 24 Aug P2-lead, IC 29 Aug P1-lead, IC 3 Sep Actual Forecast valid for Period 4 -8 Sep Anomaly CFS GFSbc

23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 11 CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

CFS, CEI

GFSbc, CEI

CFS, MZI

GFSbc, MZI

CFS, NEI

GFSbc, NEI

CFS, NWI

GFSbc, NWI

CFS, SPI

GFSbc, SPI

4 Aug IC MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 9 Aug IC

14 Aug IC MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 19 Aug IC Observation is for 20 Days

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