INFINITY PROPERTY & CASUALTY CORPORATION 1 st Quarter 2013 Earnings Webcast May 9, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

INFINITY PROPERTY & CASUALTY CORPORATION 1 st Quarter 2013 Earnings Webcast May 9, 2013

2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT DISCLOSURE This webcast contains certain “forward-looking statements” which anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of All statements in this webcast not dealing with historical results or current facts are forward-looking and are based on estimates, assumptions, and projections. Statements which include the words “assumes,” “believes,” “seeks,” “expects,” “may,” “should,” “intends,” “likely,” “targets,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “estimates” or the negative version of those words and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to expectations concerning market conditions, premium growth, earnings, investment performance, expected losses, rate changes and loss experience. The primary events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expected by Infinity include determinations with respect to reserve adequacy, realized gains or losses on the investment portfolio (including other-than-temporary impairments for credit losses), bodily injury loss cost trends, undesired business mix or risk profile for new business, and competitive conditions in our key Focus States. Infinity undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of the forward-looking statements. For a more detailed discussion of some of the foregoing risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see Infinity’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

3 1 st QUARTER 2013 HIGHLIGHTS Net Earnings Per Diluted Share of $0.74 Operating Earnings Per Diluted Share of $ Accident Year-to-Date Combined Ratio Currently at 98.2% Gross Written Premium Grew 8.5% Book Value per Share has Increased 0.6% since 3/31/2012 Repurchased 67,400 Shares

4 NEW / RENEWAL MIX & GROWTH PENALTY 2011* 2012*2013*YOY ∆ Business Mix *Developed through 3/31/2013 Written Premium New Renewal Total 41% 59% 100% 39% 61% 100% 37% 63% 100% Earned Premium New Renewal Total 42% 58% 100% 41% 59% 100% 37% 63% 100% Estimated Combined Ratio Accident Year Combined Ratio New Renewal Reported Accident Year Combined Ratio 119% 88% 100.5% 113% 90% 99.2% 111% 91% 98.2% -2 pts +1 pts -1.0 pt Difference between New and Renewal Combined Ratio31%23%20% Policy Retention Ratio63.2%63.9%64.2%+0.3 pt Pro Forma Accident Year Combined Ratio Excl Growth New Renewal Total 119% 88% 98.2% 113% 90% 97.0% 111% 91% 96.7% -2 pts +1 pts -0.3 pt Growth Penalty2.3 pts2.2 pts1.5 pts 91% is Too High New Business Profit has Improved Needs to be 93-95%

5 RESULTS SPECTRUM Performing Needs Work FL – PPA CA – PPA Commercial Vehicle PA – PPA TX – PPA NV – PPA AZ – PPA GA - PPA 15% of 2013 GWP 2013 GWP Growth = -21% 2013 Accident Year Combined Ratio = 103% (109% AY 2012) 82% of 2013 GWP 2013 GWP Growth = 18% 2013 Accident Year Combined Ratio = 95% (95% AY 2012) 2013 Focus Grow & Maintain Profitability Improve Profitability

6 NEW / RENEWAL MIX & GROWTH PENALTY – PERFORMING STATES 2011* 2012*2013*YOY ∆ Business Mix *Developed through 3/31/2013 Written Premium New Renewal Total 43% 57% 100% 43% 57% 100% 41% 59% 100% Earned Premium New Renewal Total 42% 58% 100% 43% 57% 100% 40% 60% 100% Estimated Combined Ratio Accident Year Combined Ratio New Renewal Reported Accident Year Combined Ratio 112% 84% 96% 106% 86% 95% 105% 88% 95% -1 pts +2 pts 0.0 pt Difference between New and Renewal Combined Ratio28%20%17% Policy Retention Ratio65.4%66.1%+0.7 pt Pro Forma Accident Year Combined Ratio Excl Growth New Renewal Total 112% 84% 94% 106% 86% 92% 105% 88% 93% -1 pt +2 pts -1 pt Growth Penalty2 pts3 pts2 pts New Business Profit has Improved

7 NEW / RENEWAL MIX & GROWTH PENALTY – NEEDS WORK STATES 2011* 2012*2013*YOY ∆ Business Mix *Developed through 3/31/2013 Written Premium New Renewal Total 39% 61% 100% 28% 72% 100% 19% 81% 100% Earned Premium New Renewal Total 42% 58% 100% 34% 66% 100% 24% 76% 100% Estimated Combined Ratio Accident Year Combined Ratio New Renewal Reported Accident Year Combined Ratio 130% 91% 107% 132% 98% 109% 141% 92% 103% +9 pts -6 pts Difference between New and Renewal Combined Ratio39%34%49% Policy Retention Ratio55.8%54.0%-1.8 pts Pro Forma Accident Year Combined Ratio Excl Growth New Renewal Total 130% 91% 103% 132% 98% 109% 141% 92% 105% +9 pts -6 pts -4 pts Growth Penalty4 pts0 pts-2 pts Both New and Renewal Combined Ratios are Too High

8 1 st QUARTER UPDATE BY STATE State / Product Q1 GWP (in millions) Q1 GWP Growth 2013 Accident Year Combined Ratio vs 2012 (1) IPCC Calendar Qtr. Loss Cost Trend (2) Industry Calendar Qtr. Loss Cost Trend (2)(3) 2012 Estimated Industry Combined Ratio (4) Market Conditions Focus on Growth & Maintain Profitability (“Performing States”) California PPA$ % a99.2%Improving Florida PPA$ % a97.5%Hard Comm Vehicle$ % u n/a106.2%Improving $ % Focus on Improving Profitability (“Needs Work”) Pennsylvania PPA$15.5(10.4%) u98.6%Improving Texas PPA$14.8(26.6%) u100.9%Improving Georgia PPA$12.6(15.3%) u102.2%Improving Arizona PPA$7.9(39.6%) u96.9%Improving Nevada PPA$6.0(3.4%) u102.2%Improving $56.6(20.7%) (1) 2012 developed through 3/31/13 (2) All coverages excluding comprehensive (3) Industry data is as of 12/31/12 4) derived from SNL calendar year data a = Combined ratio currently at acceptable level to meet return objectives; (normalized for growth) u = Combined ratio not currently at an acceptable level to meet return objectives (normalized for growth)

Outlook Expect to Grow Gross Written Premium by 5.0% - 8.0% Expected Accident Year Combined Ratio of 96.5% % Operating E.P.S. Guidance of $ $ OUTLOOK

10 1 st QUARTER FINANCIAL SUMMARY Three Months Ended March 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Gross Written Premium (1) $375.3$345.9 Total Revenues$330.8$287.4 Underwriting Income (2) $5.8$0.2 Loss & LAE Ratio78.6%77.5% Expense Ratio19.6%22.4% Combined Ratio98.2%99.9% Net Earnings$8.7$4.3 Operating Earnings (Loss) (2) $6.2$4.3 Net Earnings Per Diluted Share$0.74$0.35 Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Diluted Share (2) $0.53$0.36 Return on Average Equity (3) 5.3%2.6% Operating Return on Average Equity (ex FAS 115) (3) 3.9%2.7% Book Value Per Share (ex FAS 115)$54.37$53.29 ( 1) Gross Written Premium, a Non-GAAP measure, is defined and reconciled to Earned Premium, the most comparable GAAP measure, in the supplemental package available on Infinity’s website. (2) Underwriting Income and Operating Earnings, both Non-GAAP measures, are defined and reconciled to Net Earnings, the most comparable GAAP measure, in the supplemental package available on Infinity’s website. (3) Three months ended periods are annualized.

11 1 st QUARTER FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Revenues are Up 15.1% Earned Premium is Up 15.0% Net Investment Income is Down 14.5% Total Quarterly Average Investments (at Cost) are Up 21.3% Investment Income as % of Average Investments (at Cost) is Down 97 Basis Points Since March 2012 Investment Portfolio Quarterly Pre-Tax Total Return (not annualized) is 0.7% Average Credit Quality of AA- Book YTM at 3/31/13 = 2.8%, Market YTM at 3/31/13 = 1.6%

12 1 st QUARTER FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Operating Earnings Per Diluted Share are Up 47.2% Underwriting Income Increased 2013 Accident Year Combined Ratio is Currently 98.2% Expect GAAP Expense Ratio to be % for 2013 Development of Prior Accident Year Reserves Favorable Q = $128K pre-tax ($0.01 per share after-tax) Favorable Q = $90K pre-tax ($0.00 per share after-tax)

13 1 st QUARTER FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Effective Tax Rate of 28.4% in Q Effective Operating Tax Rate of 25.4% Expect Operating Tax Rate to be Around 27-29% in 2013 Repurchased 67,400 Shares