The Art and Science of Decision-Making April 28, 2014 Robert S. Duboff

2 How Facts/Data Can Add Value to Decision-Makers Information Ideas Recommendations Options/Alternatives Framing/Models Trends

3 Anticipated Use of Information in Decision Lamp PostShed Light/Insight Art Science Use of Information View of the Information

4 Variables on Communication 1.Ethics 2.Visibility/transparency 3.Clear accountability (individual vs. group)

5 Persuasion (per Aristotle) Credibility Rational Emotional

6 Decision-Making Situations for Persuasion Winner take all Negotiation OR: Focus on process instead of outcome?

7 Negotiation Styles – Two Basic Forms Position-based Negotiation A me vs. you method of negotiation Based on each side taking a position and holding to it as best they can Principled Negotiation A collaborative method of negotiation Based on merits and interests

8 Position-based Negotiation Two sides take a position and a counter-position Information exchanged between parties is limited and often needs to be found through other means Offers are exchanged until someone accepts or walks away

9 The 4 Principles of Getting to Yes (principled negotiation) Separate the people from the problem Focus on interests, not positions Invent options for mutual gain Insist on objective criteria

10 Leverage your “BATNA” BATNA stands for Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement – essentially, what is your best alternative if you decide to walk away Knowing your BATNA helps you understand your degree of leverage Knowing both your and the other party’s BATNA can definitely define your degree of leverage It is generally in your interest to clearly reveal your BATNA if you know it is a strong one, especially if you know it is stronger than their BATNA

11 Planning Negotiations consist of a series of discussions Preparing for those discussions greatly improves any negotiation Planning includes both preparing your own case and anticipating the other party’s “game plan” and how you might effectively respond Key is to think through framing, questions and the others involved -Project yourself -Use stereotypes/narrative -Infer from actions Source: Mindwise, Nicholas Epley.)