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Presentation transcript:

Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation. Securities offered through Commonwealth Financial Network ®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Presented by Ruth Matt 22 Free Street, Suite 201 Portland, ME (207) Third Quarter 2013 Market Overview

Economic Summary: Third Quarter 2013 Milestones –Equity markets hit all-time high (again) –U.S. government begins partial shutdown –BlackBerry agrees to be taken private in $4.7B deal –Merkel scores decisive victory in German election –Fed continues bond-buying program –Verizon’s $49B bond deal sets record in Vodafone acquisition –SEC approves advertising for hedge funds and private offerings –Europe agrees on further aid tranche for Greece –Housing recovery appears strong despite rise in rates –Detroit declares bankruptcy –Syria overshadows economic issues at G-20 meeting Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Economic Themes Equity/fixed income Housing Credit and banking Employment Consumer behavior Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Q3 2013: S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Q3 2013: Equity Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

Q3 2013: Fixed Income Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results Q3 High-Yield High-Yield U.S. Treasury 9.81 Emerging Markets High-Yield 2.29 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Corporates 8.15 High-Yield Foreign Sovereign 1.33 Corporates Corporates 9.00 Emerging Markets 8.02 Foreign Sovereign Emerging Markets 1.11 Foreign Sovereign U.S. Core 6.54 U.S. Core 7.84 Corporates 9.82 Mortgage 1.08 U.S. Core 5.93 U.S. Treasury 5.87 Mortgage 6.14 U.S. Core 4.21 Corporates 0.82 Mortgage 5.76 Mortgage 5.67 Foreign Sovereign 4.78 Mortgage 2.59 U.S. Core 0.57 U.S. Treasury −3.57 Foreign Sovereign 4.05 High-Yield 4.38 U.S. Treasury 1.99 U.S. Treasury 0.10 Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

Fixed Income

Treasury Yields Yield up = Price down

Net Flows into Bank Loan Funds Source: Morningstar Direct/Haver/Commonwealth Investment Research

Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Announcement

Housing

Housing: Prices and Supply

Housing: Prices and Supply continued

Credit and Banking

Credit and Banking: TED Spread

Credit and Banking: Inflation

Employment

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Strong!

Unemployment Rate

Marginally Attached Workers

Business and Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing

ISM Nonmanufacturing Strong move!

Capacity Utilization

Economic Expansion

Conclusions Job growth was strong in Q3; unemployment fell to 7.3 percent. Inflation is not a large concern, for now. ISM indices hit post-recession highs in some cases. Treasury rates moved aggressively higher across the curve, prompting bond outflows. Dividend sectors, especially utilities, saw pricing pressure as rates moved higher. The housing recovery is still progressing, but pricing may slow in the near term. GDP growth is expected to continue but could see a headwind as the government shutdown ripples through the economy.

Looking Forward... Key themes to monitor –Nomination of Yellen as new Fed Chairman –Impact of government shutdown on broader economy –Earnings season for Q3 (beat or miss estimates?) –Will the rise in mortgage rates curb the housing recovery? –Europe and economic outcome –Ongoing debt ceiling debate –Emerging markets manufacturing in Q3 –Fed “tapering” and direction of Treasury rates

Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax- exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, and, if held to maturity, they offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. U.S. Treasury bills do not eliminate market risk. Municipal bonds are federally tax- free but may be subject to state and local taxes, and interest income may be subject to federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). The purchase of bonds is subject to availability and market conditions. There is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and the yield: when price goes up, yield goes down, and vice versa. Market risk is a consideration if sold or redeemed prior to maturity. Some bonds have call features that may affect income. Investments in floating-rate securities are subject to significant credit, interest rate, valuation, liquidity, and inflation risk. Floating-rate securities tend to attract investors during periods when interest rates are rising but may be less attractive when interest rates are falling. Floating-rate securities have a variable interest rate that will go up and down, or ‘float,’ to reflect changes in current market rates.