Systems of Elections Linkage Institutions #3

Campaigns Today 1)Political Parties are less important than they once were 2)Media (both news and paid) is more important than ever 3)Polling is constant (both news and within campaigns) 4)Money matters more than ever

Campaign Staff Media Consultants – Create advertisements and buy air time Direct-Mail Firms – Design and produce promotional materials Polling Firms – Survey attitudes towards issues and run focus groups Political Technology Firms – Website design, online ads and fundraising, and voter targeting Campaign Staff – Creates strategy, crafts speeches, scheduling

Overall Spending 2008 Election (Opensecrets.org) 33 Senate Races Candidates spent $400 million 435 House Races Candidates spent $1 Billion Presidential Race Candidates spent $1.75 Billion

U.S. vs. Europe Nomination – In Europe the nomination to office is determined by party leaders. – In U.S. the nomination is determined by individual effort to appeal to party members Role of Parties in Election – In Europe elections are contests between parties – In U.S. the largest roles of parties are to provide labels and to mobilize voters

Congressional Elections Differences with Presidential Races – Size Candidates need more money in Presidential – Competition Presidential Races much more competitive – Turnout Off-year elections (Midterm Elections) have much less voter turnout so more motivated and partisan voters participate – Constituent Service Members of Congress can directly “serve” members of district – Distancing from Washington D.C. Can run as trying to “clean up” Washington D.C. Result – Congressional Elections substantially independent

Congressional Elections Single-Member Districts – Members of Congress are elected by congressional districts – Each district has an average population of 646,946 people – Reinforces the two-party system

Congressional Elections Reapportioning Districts – Every 10 years the census determines how many districts a state will have – Each state has laws to determine how the districts will be drawn out (most are done by the state legislature but it varies from state to state. California has a “commission” that does it). – Interests involved when drawing up districts

Congressional Elections Problems with Reapportioning Districts – Malapportionment Districts created with very different population numbers in the past. Votes in less-populated districts “weigh more” Baker v. Carr (1962) – Was a “political question” that courts couldn’t deal with Reynolds v. Sims (1964) – Found some districts had up to a 1081:1 ratio – Upheld “one person, one vote” ideal

Congressional Elections Problems with Reapportioning Districts – Gerrymandering Boundaries drawn in odd shapes to favor one party over the other – Benign Gerrymandering Drawing districts to increase minority representation Shaw v. Reno (1993)

Congressional Elections Incumbency Advantage (98% Reelection Rate) – Safe Seats: Any Congressional District in which the winner gets 55% of above – Marginal Seats: Any seat with a winner below 55% of the vote Reasons – District Drawing (Favors Incumbents) – Ability to Raise Money – Constituent Service – Franking Privilege – Earmarks/Pork Barreling

Congressional Elections Staying in Office – Congressional elections are closely tied to local concerns so party leaders have little influence – This impacts how policy gets made. – What type of Representative will you be? Delegated: Making decisions based on what your constituents want Trustee: Making decisions based on your best judgement

Presidential Elections We call it the Presidential Election (singular) but it practice it is 51 separate elections occurring at the same time (50 states and District of Columbia) When you vote for President you are actually voting for an elector to vote for you. That elector is already pledged to vote for a candidate (laws in place to guarantee they do)

The Electoral College A State’s number of electors is the total number of Senators and Representatives in the House 2 Senators +53 Reps 55 Represenatives

Electoral College There are a total of 538 Electoral Votes The District of Columbia is not a state but is given 3 Electoral Votes

Electoral College 48 out of the 50 states have a “winner takes all” method. If you get the most votes in that states you get ALL of their electoral college votes, regardless of by how much you win.

Electoral College 2 states are different and can divide up their electoral votes based on congressional district- Nebraska and Maine Nebraska

Electoral College A Candidate must have 270 electoral votes (Majority) to win the Presidential Election

Electoral College If no single candidate gets the required 270 electoral votes what happens? The House of Representatives votes to decide the President The Senate votes For VP. (Romney-Biden? Obama-Paul?) 1800 Thomas Jefferson 1824 John Qunicy Adams

Electoral College It is possible to get more votes overall in the elections from the entire country (popular vote) and NOT be elected President 1824 Andrew Jackson (41.36%) 99 Electoral John Quincy Adams 113,142 (30.92%) 84 Electoral Election Determined in the House 1876 Samuel Tilden4,286,808 (50.92) 184 Electoral Rutherford B. Hayes4,034,142 (47.92) 185 Electoral 1888 Grover Cleveland5,538,163 (48.63) 168 Electoral Benjamin Harrison5,443,633 (47.80) 233 Electoral 2000 Al Gore50,944,086 (48.4) 266 Electoral George W. Bush50,461,092 (47.9) 271 Electoral

Presidential Election Impact of Electoral College Focus on Big States Focus on “Swing” States Non-Democratic (just often ends up that way) Reinforces two party system