Distributed Renewable Generation Profiling Methodology ERCOT Load Profiling March 4, 2008.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Modeling Tres-Amigas Update Modeling Work Group Meeting February 10, 2011 WECC Staff.
Advertisements

1 Distributed Generation Task Force November 5, 2007.
ERCOT Analysis of 2005 Residential Annual Validation Using the Customer Survey Results ERCOT Load Profiling Presented to PWG - October 26, 2005.
Energy and Environmental Economics 1 Avoided Cost and E3 Calculator Workshops Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. October 3, 2005.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Photovoltaic Resource of the United States (2009). Map shows annual average solar resource for a solar PV system.
ERCOT Staff Comments Regarding the Proposed Suspension of Residential 2005 Annual Validation RMS Presentation August 10, 2005.
Presented to the PWG Meeting of May 26, 2010
2011 Long-Term Load Forecast Review ERCOT Calvin Opheim June 17, 2011.
THE PROCESS OF DESIGNING A PV SYSTEM
Solar Incentives for Arizona Public Service, Salt River Project, Tucson Electric Power.
Presentation Overview
Long Term Study Task Force Update to ETWG ERCOT Long-Term Study: Scenarios, New Software, and Emerging Technology Assumptions January 27, 2012.
Profiling Working Group January 11, PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Reliant Energy ERCOT PWG Chair for RMS Meeting January 11, 2006.
Interpreting HB 3693 Interstate Renewable Energy Council presentation to the ERCOT Distribute Generation Task Force December 4, 2007.
© 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Chapter 12 Describing Data.
ERCOT 2003 UFE ANALYSIS By William Boswell & Carl Raish AEIC Load Research Conference July 13, 2005.
1 Profiling Working Group Update to COPS April 15, 2015 Jim Lee (AEP) – Chair Sheri Wiegand (TXU) – Vice Chair.
1 AMS Data Workshop ERCOT Overview of AMS Data Processes June 27, 2014 ERCOT June 27, 2014.
November 10, 2009 NOIE DRG Settlements TF update to COPS Settlement Discussion for ALL DG < or = 1 MW Don Tucker on behalf of the NOIE DRG Settlements.
LPGRR044 Distributed Generation (DG) Profile Segment Implementation Plan.
Current DG Framework for Competitive Areas of ERCOT DREAM TF September 28, 2015.
ECE 7800: Renewable Energy Systems
UFE 2003 Analysis June 1, UFE 2003 ANALYSIS Compiled by the Load Profiling Group ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation June 1, 2005.
ERCOT MARKET EDUCATION
0 The Basics –There are 4 POLR customer classes: Residential, Small Non-Res. (
Distributed Generation Task Force November 29, 2007 TAC Report.
ERCOT Planning WMS 10/20/2010 Target Reserve Margin and Effective Load Carrying Capability of Installed Wind Capacity for the ERCOT System – Methodology.
April 15, 2003 UFE 2002 ANALYSIS. April 15, 2003 LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2002 This is a graphic depiction of load and UFE on the ERCOT Peak Day for.
1 ERCOT LRS Precision Analysis PWG Presentation February 27, 2007.
March 25, 2015 TDSP AMSR Cycle Read Analysis AMWG Meeting.
Profiling Working Group March 14, PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Reliant Energy ERCOT PWG Chair for COPS Meeting March 14, 2006.
UFE 2005 Analysis 1 UFE 2005 ANALYSIS Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation.
May 03, UFE ANALYSIS Old – New Model Comparison Compiled by the Load Profiling Group ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation May 03, 2007.
Settlement Accuracy Analysis Prepared by ERCOT Load Profiling.
1 UFE Workshop Sponsored by COPS October 19, 2004.
ERCOT UFE Analysis UFE Task Force February 21, 2005.
1 History of UFE (shortened version of presentation provided at UFE Taskforce Workshop on 9/14/2004) UFE Taskforce Meeting February 21, 2006.
1 ERCOT LRS Sample Design Review PWG Presentation March 27, 2007.
1 Distributed Renewable Generation Legislation as of 5/02/07  SB 483 by Fraser- Relating to the regulation of electric generation capacity ownership in.
MARS 867_03F ROR vs. Settlement vs. 810 Scenarios ERCOT September 2008.
1 ERCOT Load Profile Transition Option 1 – 4 Analysis August 21, 2006.
Commercial Operations Subcommittee Update to TAC September 7, 2012 Harika Basaran, COPS Chair 2012 Jim Lee, COPS Vice Chair 2012.
Analysis of the ERCOT IDR Threshold Requirement Presented by Bill Boswell PWG Meeting May 27, 2009.
01/17/ CP Discussion October 16,2002 Retail Market Subcommittee Austin, Texas.
DRG Slides for PWG Update to COPS. 2 Highlights from the DGTF Recommendation - 3 Small DRG applies to generation less than 50 kW –Profiling is applicable.
Distributed Renewable Generation Profile Implementation Plan.
Distributed Generation Registration June 30, 2008.
Solar Profiling Interstate Renewable Energy Council presentation to the ERCOT Profiling Working Group Jan. 22, 2008.
October 13, 2009 NOIE DRG Settlements TF update to COPS Settlement Discussion for ALL DG < or = 1 MW Don Tucker on behalf of the NOIE DRG Settlements Task.
1 Load to Price Correlation CWG/MCWG Suresh Pabbisetty, CQF, CSQA. ERCOT Public February 20, 2014.
Impact of Temporal Fluctuations in Power Plant Emissions on Air Quality Forecasts Prakash Doraiswamy 1, Christian Hogrefe 1,2, Eric Zalewsky 2, Winston.
1 With the increase in solar and wind generation we would like to stream line the process Currently TDSPS are required to send ERCOT ESI ID Generation.
Profiling Working Group 1 PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Direct Energy ERCOT PWG Chair Ed Echols Of Oncor ERCOT PWG Vice Chair for COPS Meeting.
DSWG - June 25, Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution- Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive Area Carl L Raish.
Resource Analysis. Objectives of Resource Assessment Discussion The subject of the second part of the analysis is to dig more deeply into some of the.
Profiling Working Group 1 PWG Update Report By Brad Boles of Cirro Energy ERCOT PWG Vice-Chair for COPS Meeting March 11, 2008.
1 ERCOT COPS Round 2 Sample Design Review April 10, 2007.
1 A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share Based on AV Profile ID Changes Presented by ERCOT Staff to the Profiling Working Group 10/26/2005.
Hypothetical Examples of How Residential Photovoltaic (PV) ESI IDs Could be Settled ERCOT Load Profiling.
Calculations of Peak Load Contribution (PLC) AND Network Service Peak Load (NSPL) As of 1/1/2016.
1 EMI’s “Bright Future” Solar Project CENTRAL in Jackson – Entergy Property Tracking with tilted axis – Estimated annual yield of 917,400 kWh.
Analysis of Load Reductions Associated with 4-CP Transmission Charges in ERCOT Carl L Raish Principal Load Profiling and Modeling Demand Side Working Group.
Is the Weight Worth It? PWG April 27, Introduction The Average Load Factor (AvgLF) used to determine Profile Segment assignment is a weighted.
Interpreting HB 3693 Interstate Renewable Energy Council
Principal Load Profiling and Modeling
Distributed Generation Task Force
Emergency Response Service Baselines
PLC = Peak Load Contribution (aka “ICAP”)
Photovoltaic cell energy output:
It’s a Matter of Time: Analyzing the Effects of Dynamic Rate Designs on Low-Income and Senior Electricity Consumers.
Presentation transcript:

Distributed Renewable Generation Profiling Methodology ERCOT Load Profiling March 4, 2008

2 Distributed Renewable Generation (DRG) TDSPs responded to ERCOT’s request for information on premises that have DRG with a generation capacity < 50 kW. What is out there? Five of the ESI IDs included above have PV and wind generation. This means there are currently 87 unique ESI IDs known to have one or more type of DRG (< 50 kW).

3 DRG Sites – Available Information Even though TDSPs provided the best information available there are many barriers to analyzing DRG sites. For example: Given the above, it is difficult to identify the effects of DRG from the available meter read data. An interconnection agreement date is not necessarily meaningful. DRG may have been operating for years before agreement is signed, or may not operate until well after agreement is completed. Sometimes inverter capacity is known—but generator capacity is not known. Presently, energy exported to the Distribution System (energy outflow from the premise) is only available for a handful of ESI IDs.

4 Residential DRG – Photovoltaic (PV)

5 Residential PV

6 Due to potential confidentiality issues, a chart displaying both DRG capacity (kW) and annual usage (kWh) is not presented here. However, the correlation of the two variables is (excluding the outlier). The table of ESI ID counts below may help illustrate the relationship. Each respective variable’s median value serves as the break between high and low.

7 Business PV

8

9 Residential DRG – Wind

10 Residential Wind

11 Residential Wind For wind ESI IDs the correlation of DRG capacity and annual usage is The following table of ESI ID counts uses each respective variable’s median value as the break between high and low. Values equal to the median were treated as low.

12 Business Wind

13 Business Wind

14 PV Generation How much energy will a PV array produce? Given the currently known average Residential PV generation capacity of 3.5 kW (AC), at 100% capacity factor there would be (3.5 * 24 =) 84 kWh generated per day. If we utilize the Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s irradiance estimate of 20% from its presentation to the DGTF on 12/04/07, the estimated yield would be 16.8 kWh per day. Applying the above to the average Business PV generation capacity of 8.9 kW (AC) yields an estimated 42.7 kWh per day. For simplicity, the energy produced by a PV array is presented in most of the slides as a sine wave spanning 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM.

15 Residential PV

16 Residential PV – Building the Profile How would a daily PV load profile be derived? To build a PV profile (consistent with what has come to be known as ‘Option 5’) for a specific profile type and weather zone, e.g., for PV ESI ID that is currently assigned RESHIWR NCENT: This PV profile can then be used in the Data Aggregation process. The kWh ‘outflow to the grid’ would be applied in settlement evenly across all days, spanning the intervals from 11:00 AM to 3:00 PM. 1. For a specific day, take the current RESHIWR NCENT profile; 2. Multiply each value by 0.89 to scale it to the average PV ESI ID (more info in Appendix A); 3. Scale it such that when the PV generation shape is applied in the next step the kWh will remain the same; 4. Subtract the values of the PV generation shape to produce the RESHIPV NCENT load profile.

17 Residential PV – Building the Profile

18 Residential PV – Building the Profile

19 Residential PV – Building the Profile

20 Residential PV – Building the Profile

21 Residential PV – Applying the Profile

22 Residential PV – Applying the Profile

23 Residential PV – Applying the Profile

24 Residential PV – Applying the Profile In the preceding slide the ESI ID’s usage was higher than that of the PV profile. What if an ESI ID had significantly lower usage?

25 Residential PV – Applying the Profile

26 Business PV – Building the Profile

27 Business PV – Building the Profile

28 Business PV – Building the Profile

29 Business PV – Building the Profile

30 Business PV – Applying the Profile

31 Business PV – Applying the Profile

32 Business PV – Applying the Profile

33 PV Model Building Following are some additional details planned for inclusion in the load profile models for PV ESI IDs. The examples shown are for Residential, but the same methodology would be applied to Business as well.

34 Residential PV Generation assumptions –Represented using Sine function –Begin/End Times for PV Generation are day of year & weather zone specific 1 hour after sunrise 1 hour before sunset –Daily kWh Generation is based on 3.5 kW with a 20% capacity factor Average daily PV Generation is 16.8 kWh Average daily PV produces output for 10.2 hours (range: 7.9 – 12.4) Daily PV Generation is prorated based on hours of generation for the day compared to an average day Example day with 8 hours of Generation: Residential PV – Building the Model

35 Residential PV Model assumptions –Standard Profile multiplied by 1.17 Where: Average PV premise Daily kWh = (adjusted for PV Gen) Average Standard Profile Daily kWh = – Subtract PV Generation from scaled up Profile – if result in an interval is negative, set to zero Beta test MetrixND Project file has been developed for Reshiwr_North – Results for 2005 shown graphically on the next 3 slides Residential PV – Building the Model

36 PV Gen PV Profile Standard Profile Residential HIWR North PV

37 PV Gen PV Profile Standard Profile Residential HIWR North PV

38 PV Gen PV Profile Standard Profile Residential HIWR North PV

39 Wind – Building the Profile How would a daily wind load profile be derived for Residential and Business? At this point it appears that energy from distributed wind generation would be spread evenly across all hours. Though a ‘wind’ profile type assignment would still be needed to address kWh outflow to the distribution system, the standard profile for the respective profile type (but renamed) would still be used in settlement. Wind-generated ‘outflow to the grid’ would likely be spread evenly to all hours in settlement, as well.

40 Residential Wind – Applying the Profile

41 DRG Questions or comments?

42 Appendix A – Profile Scalar Scalar for the ‘standard’ load profile: Slide 5 shows the average kWh ‘inflow to premise’ to be 13,668 for The profile type and weather zone combination that had the most reported PV generation was RESHIWR NCENT. That combination’s kWh for all of 2007 from the new profile models was 16,281. The ratio of these two values is approximately Using this value as a scalar in the first step of building a PV load profile serves two purposes: 1.It maintains a proportional PV output as the ESI ID’s kWh ‘inflow to premise’ varies; and 2.It prevents the PV load profile value from going negative.

43 Appendix A – Profile Scalar Scalar for the ‘standard’ load profile: Slide 5 shows the average kWh ‘inflow to premise’ to be 13,668 for To determine the scalar for the standard load profile, the following ratio was calculated for each Residential PV ESI ID: kWh load for 2007 / 2007 kWh for respective profile type & weather zone The average of the 51 ratios (excluding the outlier) is approximately Using this value as a scalar in the first step of building a PV load profile serves two purposes: 1.It maintains a proportional PV output as the ESI ID’s kWh ‘inflow to premise’ varies; and 2.It prevents the PV load profile value from going negative.

44 Appendix B – Insolation Across Texas Source: InfinitePower.org

45 Appendix C – Sunrise Times

46 Appendix D – Sunset Times