The European way to think the Digital World www.idate.org 3 years later… Telecom’s current state of health IDATE International Conference 2003 Yves GASSOT.

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Presentation transcript:

The European way to think the Digital World 3 years later… Telecom’s current state of health IDATE International Conference 2003 Yves GASSOT

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Three years after the bubble burst... Where’s the growth?  Back in the black Net profits for the world’s leading carriers (Billion EUR) Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Evolution of European carriers’ net debt Deutsche Telekom France Telecom British Telecom Telecom ItaliaTelefónicaKPN Million EUR 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Three years later... ... But a sharp decline in growth Evolution of leading carriers’ TO (Billion EUR) Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Declining growth rates  North American market stalled... ... a sharp decline in Europe... ... but still steady growth in Asia-Pacific Evolution of the world market by region (constant exchange rates) Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 The China effect… China: cellular subscribers and mobile density (e) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Cellular subscribers (million)Cellular density (%) Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Diminishing growth Market components Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Successful migration to 3G Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Fixed: revenues and consumption dropping The internet effect... and fixed-mobile substitution Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 What about data? ... Data market value growth on a downward trend… Evolution of the world market, by segment (constant exchange rates) Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Broadband: a growth relay?  Tremendous growth of broadband subscribers, thanks notably to lower tariffs. Growth of broadband subscribers Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Broadband: a growth relay? Broadband subscribers (DSL + Cable) per 100 inhabitants Source: IDATE

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Conclusion (1) Spectacular financial revival + Clear decline in growth rates… = Threat of telecoms’ “commodization”? ... But considerable potential contingent on: -stepped-up investments in innovation, -more user-centric marketing (streamlined segmentation, bundling, user-friendly, pricing…) -pro-active partnerships with other ICT players (as opposed to being just a “pipe manager”) -regulation geared to efficient and durable competition

IDATE © IDATE International Conference 20 November 2003 Conclusion (2) Hence the theme of this year’s Conference Telecom - Internet - Media: Advantage Services! Illustrated by four key areas for carriers in the 5 coming years, namely:  Winning Services 1: Corporate and business markets: How to increase revenues when tariffs are dropping ?  Winning Services 2: Beyond telephony… the next generation in Personal Communication  Winning Services 3: Mobile services in the age of 3G  Winning Services 4: Always on… at home: who will pay for what? Or how to create value on broadband networks?