Tools and Information: what’s already out there, and what more do we need?

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Maps of Observed Change

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Maps of Future Change (Last Spring Frost) MRI ModelIPSL Model Source:

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Climate Analog Mapper

Climate Change Resource Center Topic pages – Urban Forests – Water Resources – Silviculture – Wildlife – Forest Carbon – Grasslands – Wildland fire Tools

Climate Change Tree Atlas Changes in Suitable Habitat (Sugar Maple) Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Low High Current Importance Value Low High

NIACS Vulnerability Assessment Examine a range of future climates Do not make recommendations Sources of information: Models Published research Local managers and experts Download:

Generally expected to decreaseLittle Change Generally expected to increase New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas) Not sure (Disagreement among models) Substantial Declines: Black spruce Eastern redbud* Mountain maple* Smaller declines: Balsam fir Paper birch Quaking aspen Rock elm* White spruce Wild plum* *Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only Bigtooth aspen Chokecherry* Eastern hophornbeam* Eastern white pine Jack pine Northern red oak Northern white-cedar Pin cherry* Red maple Red pine Striped maple* Sugar maple Swamp white oak* Tamarack* Yellow birch Substantial Increases: American beech Bitternut hickory Black ash Black locust* Black oak Black walnut* Black willow* Eastern cottonwood* Hackberry* Red mulberry* River birch+ Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm* Smaller Increases: American elm* American hornbeam* Boxelder* Bur oak Butternut* Eastern hemlock White ash White oak Chinkapin oak* Eastern redcedar* Flowering dogwood* Gray birch* Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory* Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras* Scarlet oak* Shingle oak* Sweet birch* Sycamore* Yellow-poplar* (Atlas/LANDIS): American basswood (0/++) Balsam poplar (--/0) Black cherry (++/0) Green ash (-/+) Northern pin oak (0/++) Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species PCM B1 Scenario (Less Change) Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.

Generally expected to decreaseLittle Change Generally expected to increase New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas) Not sure (Disagreement among models) Substantial Declines: Balsam fir Black spruce Butternut* Chokecherry* Mountain maple* Paper birch Pin cherry* Quaking aspen White spruce Yellow birch Smaller declines: Black ash Eastern white pine Jack pine Northern white-cedar Striped maple* Sugar maple Tamarack* *Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only Green ash Northern red oak Red pine Substantial Increases: American elm* American hornbeam* Bitternut hickory Black locust* Black oak Black walnut* Black willow* Boxelder* Eastern cottonwood* Eastern redbud* Hackberry* Red mulberry* River birch* Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm* White oak Wild plum* Smaller Increases: American basswood American beech Black cherry Bur oak Eastern hophornbeam* Peachleaf willow* Swamp white oak* White ash Black hickory* Blackgum* Blackjack oak* Chestnut oak* Chinkapin oak* Common persimmon* Eastern redcedar* Flowering dogwood* Gray birch* Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Northern catalpa* Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory* Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras* Scarlet oak* Shellbark hickory* Shingle oak* Sugarberry* Sweet birch* Sweeygum* Sycamore* Yellow-poplar* (Atlas/LANDIS): Balsam poplar (0/--) Bigtooth aspen (0/--) Eastern hemlock (0/--) Northern pin oak (0/++) Red maple (-/+) Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species GFDL A1FI Scenario (Greater Change) Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.

Vulnerability by Forest Type Community TypePotential ImpactsAdaptive CapacityVulnerability Upland spruce-fir NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland conifers NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland-riparian hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate Moderate-High Aspen-birch Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Red pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-Low Moderate-High Jack pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate Northern hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate White pine Moderate-NegativeHigh Moderate-Low Oak associations ModerateModerate-High Moderate- Low Source: Janowiak et al. 2014

DNR Vulnerability Assessment Same process as NIACS assessment Includes southern forest communities Includes northern non- forest communities Released soon!

NED-3 Climate Change Report Report Objective To provide natural resource managers with information that they can use to better understand and assess the risk of forest stands and properties to climate change, in order to inform their decision making.

Identify Goals and Objectives Involve appropriate stakeholders Determine Necessary Conditions Measurable criteria Determine Existing Conditions Collect and analyze data Identify Appropriate Silvicultural System Modify to fit situation Develop Prescription(s): Specify and implement activities Prescription Development

NED-3 Climate Change Report The NED-3 Climate Change Report utilizes 9 climate-informed metrics (CIM’s) which rely on standard forest inventory data. These climate-informed metrics are a practical way to leverage existing forest inventory data to better understand key climate risks and measure the effectiveness of adaptation actions over time. These include: Total Stocking Tree Species Diversity (Richness) Tree Species Evenness (Richness Distribution) Large Coarse Woody Debris Saplings per Acre Seedlings per Acre Three new metrics provide an assessment of the risk of decline of trees, saplings, and seedlings using data from the Climate Change Tree Atlas: Climate Risk – Overstory Climate Risk – Saplings Climate Risk – Seedlings

Questions? 1.What are your informational / tool needs regarding climate change management? a)What would make your life easier? 2.What would help you catch the attention of clients, partners, or peers when incorporating climate change into management? 3.How do you discern between climate change effects and other impacts? 4.What timeframes are most important for your work (e.g. now, +20 yrs., +50 yrs., +100 yrs.? 5.What about “assisted migration”? Is this controversial for your work? Do you already do it?