Multi-Interval Real-Time Market (MIRTM) Updates SAWG Sean Chang Market Analysis February 22, 2016 ERCOT Public Version 0.9.2.

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Presentation transcript:

Multi-Interval Real-Time Market (MIRTM) Updates SAWG Sean Chang Market Analysis February 22, 2016 ERCOT Public Version 0.9.2

2 Table of Contents Introduction Improving Demand Estimation Performance of All Intervals Performance of Intervals where System Lambda >= $75/MWh Performance on Specific Days Improving Wind HSL Estimation Performance of All Intervals Performance of Intervals where System Lambda >= $75/MWh Performance on Specific Days MAE of All Methodologies Next Steps

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 3 Introduction 1. Improving Demand Estimation Short-Term Load Forecast (STLF) Generation-To-Be-Dispatched (GTBD) Calculation Methodology 2. Improving Wind HSL Estimation Indicative Pricing Tool currently uses a heuristically determined linear equation to estimate wind HSL Currently, proposal is for MIRTM to use persistence (HSL telemetry only) to forecast wind HSL Improvements to linear regression was devised to show potential improvement in short-term wind HSL estimation

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 4 Improving Demand Estimation

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 5 Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Both STLFs use weather and calendar variables as basic inputs. Current STLF (Legacy system in the EMMS) Based on regression similar day model using lagged load values as well as lagged load from 24 hours ago of a similar day New STLF (Blended Model) First 15 minutes is based on a regression model using lagged load values (forecast of total MW for a weather zone) Next 45+ minutes is based on a regression model of ramp rates (forecast of total MW change from last actual value) See May 2015 SAWG meeting page for previous presentation:

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 6 Improving Demand Estimation

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 7 Improving Demand Estimation Both the current STLF and new STLF are used in the analysis along with the modified methodology for four combinations: 1.MIRTM GTBD with current STLF 2.MIRTM GTBD with new STLF 3.MIRTM GTBD Modified with current STLF 4.MIRTM GTBD Modified with new STLF The calculated MIRTM GTBD errors are benchmarked using Estimated – Reference where Reference is: First interval (i=1): Actual SCED GTBD Intervals 2 – 6 (i=2…6): Sum of generator output at end of SCED interval

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 8 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance July 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015 All Intervals

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 9 MAE of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 10 MAE of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 11 Standard Deviation of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 12 Standard Deviation of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 13 Mean of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 14 Mean of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 15 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 16 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 17 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 18 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 19 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 20 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 21 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 22 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 23 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 24 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 25 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 26 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 27 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance July 1, 2015 – December 31, Intervals when System Lambda >= $75/MWh

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 28 MAE of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 29 MAE of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference For intervals 4-6, we are investigating why the current STLF performs better than the new STLF for the high price intervals using the modified methodology.

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 30 Standard Deviation of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 31 Standard Deviation of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 32 Mean of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 33 Mean of Estimated GTBD vs. Reference

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 34 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 35 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 36 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 37 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 38 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 39 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 40 MIRTM GTBD Error by Reference (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 41 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 42 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 43 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 44 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 45 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 46 MIRTM GTBD Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 47 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance on Specific Days In the following slides, the estimation performance of the following specific days are analyzed: August 13, 2015 October 23, 2015 November 11, 2015 November 27, 2015 For each of these four dates, the two highest priced SCED intervals are further examined. The LDL-HDL energy offer curve is shown along with the effects that the New STLF and Modified GTBD Methodology have on the resulting price based the curve. This is not the actual LDL-HDL curve MIRTM would use for each interval (i). It is the LDL-HDL curve at the SCED snapshot (i =1) simply to give a representation of how sensitive the energy offer curve is to differing GTBD values.

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 48 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance August 13, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 49 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 50 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 51 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 52 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 53 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 54 MIRTM GTBD Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 55 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve from August 13, :05 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.3 * 95 = MW Load Ramp Component 0.5 * 156 = 78 MW Regulation Up Component Recall that SCED GTBD = = Sum of Generator Output (at snapshot) + K3 * Predicted Load Ramp + K4 * Regulation Deployed At 15:10: -22 MW Regulation Down Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 56 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on August 13, :55 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.3 * 17 = 22.1 MW Load Ramp Component 0.5 * 211 = MW Regulation Up Component At 16:00: 56 MW Regulation Up Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 57 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance October 23, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 58 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 59 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 60 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 61 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 62 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 63 MIRTM GTBD Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 64 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on October 23, :10 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.2 * 409 = MW Load Ramp Component 0.4 * 660 = 264 MW Regulation Up Component At 06:15: 208 MW Regulation Up Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 65 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on October 23, :35 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.2 * 308 = MW Load Ramp Component 0.4 * 173 = 69.2 MW Regulation Up Component At 06:40: -70 MW Regulation Down Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 66 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance November 11, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 67 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 68 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 69 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 70 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 71 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 72 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 11, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 73 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on November 11, :25 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.2 * 321 = MW Load Ramp Component 0.3 * 255 = 76.5 MW Regulation Up Component At 17:30: -88 MW Regulation Down Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 74 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on November 11, :35 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.2 * 297 = MW Load Ramp Component 0.3 * -26 = -7.8 MW Regulation Down Component At 17:40: 0 MW Regulation Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 75 MIRTM Demand Estimation Performance November 27, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 76 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 77 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 78 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 79 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 80 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 81 MIRTM GTBD Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 82 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on November 27, :55 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 1.2 * 77 = 92.4 MW Load Ramp Component 0.3 * 136 = 40.8 MW Regulation Up Component At 17:00: -129 MW Regulation Down Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 83 LDL to HDL Energy Offer Curve on November 27, :40 SCED Run At SCED Snapshot: 0.3 * -19 = -5.7 MW Regulation Down Component 1.2 * 63 = 75.6 MW Load Ramp Component At 17:45: -85 MW Regulation Down Deployed

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 84 Improving Wind HSL Estimation

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 85 Improving Wind HSL Estimation in MIRTM

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 86 Wind Estimation Performance January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015 All Intervals

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 87 MAE of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 88 MAE of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 89 Standard Deviation of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 90 Standard Deviation of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 91 Mean of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 92 Mean of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 93 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 94 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 95 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 96 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 97 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 98 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 99 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 100 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 101 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 102 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 103 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 104 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 105 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance January 1, 2015 – December 31, Intervals when System Lambda >= $75/MWh

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 106 MAE of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 107 MAE of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 108 Standard Deviation of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 109 Standard Deviation of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 110 Mean of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 111 Mean of Estimated Wind HSL vs. Actual Wind HSL

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 112 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 113 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 114 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 115 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 116 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 117 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Actual Wind HSL (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 118 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 119 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 120 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 121 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 122 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 123 MIRTM Wind HSL Error by Delivery Time (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 124 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance on Specific Days In the following slides, the estimation performance of the following specific days are analyzed: August 13, 2015 October 23, 2015 November 11, 2015 November 27, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 125 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance August 13, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 126 MIRTM Wind HSL on August 13, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 127 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 128 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 129 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 130 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 131 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 132 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on August 13, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 133 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance October 23, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 134 MIRTM Wind HSL on October 23, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 135 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 136 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 137 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 138 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 139 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 140 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on October 23, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 141 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance November 11, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 142 MIRTM Wind HSL on November 11, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 143 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 144 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 145 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 146 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 147 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 148 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 11, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 149 MIRTM Wind HSL Estimation Performance November 27, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 150 MIRTM Wind HSL on November 27, 2015

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 151 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 6)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 152 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 5)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 153 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 4)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 154 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 3)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 155 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 2)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 156 MIRTM Wind HSL Error on November 27, 2015 (Interval = 1)

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 157 MAE of All Methodologies

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 158 Next Steps for Forecast data input to MIRTM Continue maintaining metrics on MIRTM GTBD, Wind HSL forecasting and report to SAWG Request feedback on methodology and suggest improvements For studies use: MIRTM GTBD Modified with new STLF ARIMA regression coefficients for Wind HSL estimation Please provide feedback on other ways to present or analyze the data

Public | Market Analysis Table of ContentsTable of Contents | 159 Questions?