1 The Other China – Left-behind – Struggling Out Presentation CIES 2008 Mar 21 in NY NY

The Other China – Left-behind – Struggling Out

3 - The Other China Dubious demographics   600 million rural people in 2000 (CASS) = 46.2%   700 million in 2007(Xh) = 53.%   800 million in 2007 (AP)= 61.5% of China's 1.3 billion people live in the countryside.   49% of total population was engaged in agriculture in 2003 – 800 million (ADB).   Safe estimate is 58% or 750 million = >2x US pop.

4The Other China – Left-behind – Struggling Out Another way to look at this population is 49 percent of the population was engaged in agriculture in 2003 (ADB, Key Indicators). This datum would lead us to assume that the larger number of rural people would be more accurate. 49 percent of the population was engaged in agriculture in 2003 (ADB, Key Indicators). This datum would lead us to assume that the larger number of rural people would be more accurate. Safe estimate is rural pop of 58% or 750 million = >2x US pop Safe estimate is rural pop of 58% or 750 million = >2x US pop

5- The Other China According to official Chinese statistics in 2005 over 99 percent of age-group children were enrolled in primary schooling (net enrollment) which compares to a world average of 83.8 percent (AED, 2006, p.1) % of all age-group boys % of all age-group girls ( State Council, ’ 05.08) Since 53% to 61% of the people are rural in 2007, the net enrollment data indicate that there is no significant inequality in rural urban enrollment.

6 - The Other China: The Guanlan Sisters 23 girls from a mountain village in Shaanxi Province had dropped out in grade 3 or 4, but in due to a scholarship - had re-entered school, some after several years absence (first cohort of scholarship recipients). 7 years later, 7 Quit school and went to work: 7 Quit school and went to work: 2 at age 19 after grade 6 (6-7 yrs drop out) 2 at age 19 after grade 6 (6-7 yrs drop out) 1 at age 17 after some high school (sr. secondary) grade 10 1 at age 17 after some high school (sr. secondary) grade 10 4 at age 17 after middle school (jr. secondary) grade 9 (1 yr out) 4 at age 17 after middle school (jr. secondary) grade 9 (1 yr out) 2 Married at age 20 after grade 6 2 Married at age 20 after grade 6 6 Went off scholarship and – probably quit school: 6 Went off scholarship and – probably quit school: 1 at age 12 after grade 4 (2 yrs drop out) 1 at age 12 after grade 4 (2 yrs drop out) 2 at age after grade 6 (6-7 yrs drop out) 2 at age after grade 6 (6-7 yrs drop out) 2 at age unknown after grade 6 2 at age unknown after grade 6 1 at age unknown after grade middle school grade 9 1 at age unknown after grade middle school grade 9

7 - The Other China: the Guanlan Sisters Summary of 23 primary school girls returned by a scholarship school perseverance over 7 years: 9 quit in or right after primary school gr 6 9 quit in or right after primary school gr 6 Another 6 quit before gr 11 Another 6 quit before gr 11 8 continued in school for 7 more years and are either in M or H 8 continued in school for 7 more years and are either in M or H 5 severely overage school leavers (not part of net enrollment) who quit in or after primary school = 22% drop out 5 severely overage school leavers (not part of net enrollment) who quit in or after primary school = 22% drop out 1 grade 4 school leaver = 4.3% drop out 1 grade 4 school leaver = 4.3% drop out Compare to official statistics 1% of age group out of primary school 1% of age group out of primary school

Figures given as “ according to official statistics ” are often based on administrative reporting rather than National Bureau of Statistics ’ strictly administered surveys.example 1990 and 2002 the “ real ” per capita income had risen by an average of only US $0.85 according to a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Yang, 2001) 1990 and 2002 the “ real ” per capita income had risen by an average of only US $0.85 according to a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Yang, 2001) the official statistics had cited US $ $42.50 per year. the official statistics had cited US $ $42.50 per year. Argue over accuracy, the extent of difference is remarkable. Argue over accuracy, the extent of difference is remarkable. 8- The Other China

9- The Other China : POVERTY RATES WB definition of poverty is living on <$1.00/day WB the poor are almost exclusively rural; 1981, in hindsight, 71-77% of pop lived on <$ substantially poorer than sub- Saharan Africa. 1981, in hindsight, 71-77% of pop lived on <$1.00/day substantially poorer than sub- Saharan Africa. 2004, in hindsight (07), 13-17%, 2nd largest number of people, right after India. (WB Jan 08 China Quarterly Update) 170 to 222 million people living on <$1/day compared to 750 million rural people. 300 million or 25% of the population were living in poverty in 2007, WB revised its previous figure of 100 million up in Jan 08.

10- The Other China – Shaanxi Province Shaanxi yellow earth region annual per capita income is about RMB 1,000 ($129) according to Plan China (2007), Shaanxi yellow earth region annual per capita income is about RMB 1,000 ($129) according to Plan China (2007), In the mountain village of the Guanlan Girls in 2001 family income was RMB 635 or US $ 0.21/day. In the mountain village of the Guanlan Girls in 2001 family income was RMB 635 or US $ 0.21/day.

11- The Other China : Rural Poverty Among 750 million rural people who still live in the country side, 300 million are extremely poor. Among 750 million rural people who still live in the country side, 300 million are extremely poor. Families among the 300 million are likely to have daughters who experience schooling like the Guanlan Sisters: Families among the 300 million are likely to have daughters who experience schooling like the Guanlan Sisters: 22% or 66 million are likely to have an on-again- off-again primary school experience – if at all. 22% or 66 million are likely to have an on-again- off-again primary school experience – if at all. Compare this to the official 1% not in primary. Compare this to the official 1% not in primary. This is still too optimistic. This is still too optimistic.

12- The Other China : Girls & Gender Parity MDG #4, China has reached a male/female ratio of 100:99 enrolled in primary through tertiary (1-16) schools (ADB). Too good to be true. The sex ratio for newborn babies in 2000 was 110 boys to 100 and in 2005 was 118 boys to 100 girls (State Planning Commission) for every 100 boys, 85 girls reportedly were born – “disappeared” before or after birth. By the way, among the total 46 Guanlan Sisters, not one had less than 2 siblings – under the “rural two- child policy”.

13 Comparing Newborn Sex Ratio with School Enrollment Sex Ratio

14- The Other China The NGO, Plan - China and the Vice Governor of Qishan County and head of its Family Planning Bureau reported publicly, that just under 47.5% of children in 5 townships in one Shaanxi county had not been registered at birth (CDB : 16 ）. (CDB : 16 ）.

15- The Other China The official 98% net primary enrollment rate includes registered children only The official 98% net primary enrollment rate includes registered children only Would this mean that only 99% of 50% of all children, or Would this mean that only 99% of 50% of all children, or 49% of age group constitutes the net primary enrollment rate? 49% of age group constitutes the net primary enrollment rate? In rural Shaanxi these fines … can rise as high as RMB 10,000 (2007 US $1,266.00) – compare to Shaanxi “my” poor 2 counties annual income of RMB 635-1,000. In rural Shaanxi these fines … can rise as high as RMB 10,000 (2007 US $1,266.00) – compare to Shaanxi “my” poor 2 counties annual income of RMB 635-1,000. In practice, parents who cannot afford to pay birth control fines often avoid registering their children. In practice, parents who cannot afford to pay birth control fines often avoid registering their children.

16 The Other China: Consequences of Poor Count ? “ Children without legal documentation are vulnerable to exclusion from health and education services, … also more easy prey for child-trafficking gangs. In later life, they will not be able to obtain the identity card [hukou] that is necessary for employment and other legal and financial transactions” – part of the report.

Without universal birth registration, there can be no universal education nor can it be ascertained whether it has been reached. Without universal birth registration, there can be no universal education nor can it be ascertained whether it has been reached. A net enrollment figure lies somewhere between 46 and the official 98 percent, and varies greatly by location. A net enrollment figure lies somewhere between 46 and the official 98 percent, and varies greatly by location. 17 The Other China: Poor Count – No Universal Education ?