Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Bureau Initiatives Flood Forum Victoria – Mildura November 2014 Elma Kazazic, Regional Hydrology Manager – Victoria, Bureau of Meteorology Loddon River at Cairn Curran January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries

 Bureau of Meteorology drivers  Documenting Bureau Flood Warning Services  Hydrological Forecasting System (HyFS)  Warning Entry Tool  Training and Competency  Key deliverables for 2014/15 Presentation outline Avoca River at Charlton January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries

Flooding in the last 5 years  More than $15 billion in damages across all states  Record flood levels at over 120 locations across multiple states  Many towns flooded multiple times with back-to-back record floods  Victorian Floods Review, QLD COI and Munro Review of the Bureau Wimmera River at Glynwylin January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries

Back-to-back La Niña events

Back-to-back record flood years

What follows big floods? Inquiries and reviews

Commonwealth Government response to the Munro review  Increase the number of frontline meteorologists and hydrologists  Establish a National Centre for Extreme Weather (now named Extreme Weather Desk)  Implement a next generation flood forecasting system  Implement an advanced storm surge forecasting system  Implement vital infrastructure repairs/upgrades  Standardise service level agreements and cost recovery arrangements with emergency services Allocated $58.5m over four years commencing to:

Bureau initiatives in flood forecasting and warning  Nationally consistent services, systems and tools  Creation of a National Operations Team  Publication of formalised arrangements and service levels  Investment in state-of-the-art flood forecasting system  Investment in advanced training and competency assessment  More forecasters to manage extreme events Improving capability and capacity on many levels

Formalise arrangements and service levels  National Arrangements – outline roles and responsibilities  Service Level Specifications - define levels of service and associated performance targets  Data Sharing Agreements – document flood warning data sharing arrangements

HyFS – New flood forecasting and warning system  Event modelling for 150+ basins across Australia, 50 SWIFT models, 560+ forecast locations, 5000 rain gauges and 3000 river gauges  Moving to continuous modelling out to 7 days, and the generation of scenarios  Enables use of rainfall radar and numerical weather prediction output  Improved data visualisation and quality control  Uses best available rainfall observations and forecasts

HyFS – New flood forecasting and warning system Project Time Lines Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 T0 Requirements (2012) Functional Modelling System (2013) Data System (HyDS) (2013/14) Model Migration (2014) Operationalise (2015) Stage 6 Extension (2015/16)

Warning Entry Tool - WET  Nationally consistent flood watches and warnings  Better connection to downstream systems through standard formats  CAP, AMOC, XML  Better processes and linkages to service level requirements (from SLS) will lead to better quality and consistency  Encode numerical forecasts and link to HyFS for verification and training  Foundation for Flood web refresh Automated verification Automated text generation

Warning Entry Tool - WET

Advanced training and competency assessment  Structured training and assessment  Role-based operational roles  Teaches best practice, ensures minimum standards  Enables greater staff mobility and cross-region operations support. Flood Warning Competency Framework

Key deliverables for 2014/15 DeliverableDate Flood watch service in NT and QLDOct/Nov 14 Competency based training for HyFS, STF and URBSDec 14 (QPF June 15) Warning Entry Tool rolloutApr 15 Initial HyFS implementationJune 15 New public Short Term Flow serviceJune 15 Quality Management System ISO9001June 15 (may carry over to 15-16) ANZEMC implementationOngoing National Arrangements, Service level Specification, Data Sharing Agreements Ongoing

Elma Kazazic Regional Hydrology Manager, Victoria Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thank you Campaspe River at Eppalock Reservoir January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries