CPA Canada Q Business Monitor Background document On behalf of: Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada May 6, 2016

Study Information The CPA Canada Business Monitor is issued quarterly, based on a survey commissioned by CPA Canada and conducted by Harris Poll. The report draws upon business insights of professional accountants in leadership positions in privately and publicly held companies. For the Q study, ed surveys were completed by 640 of 5,619 identified by CPA Canada as holding senior positions in industry (CFOs, CEOs, COOs and other leadership roles). The response rate was 15 per cent, with a margin of error associated with this type of study at ±3.9 per cent, with a confidence level of 95 per cent. The survey was conducted from March 30 to April 14, The response rate calculation follows guidelines set by the Market Research and Intelligence Association, and is calculated as follows: Response Rate = Survey Completes / (Completed Surveys + Incomplete Surveys + Estimated Eligible Members in Sample). About CPA Canada The new Canadian designation, Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA), is now used by Canada’s accounting profession across the country. The profession’s national body, Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada (CPA Canada), is one of the largest in the world with more than 200,000 members, both at home and abroad. The Canadian CPA was created with the unification of three legacy accounting designations (CA, CGA and CMA). CPAs are valued for their financial and tax expertise, strategic thinking, business insight, management skills and leadership. CPA Canada conducts research into current and emerging business issues and supports the setting of accounting, auditing and assurance standards for business, not-for-profit organizations and government. CPA Canada also issues guidance and thought leadership on a variety of technical matters, publishes professional literature and develops education and professional certification programs. cpacanada.ca/businessmonitor Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder

KEY SLIDES Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder

Twenty-two per cent of the business leaders surveyed expressed optimism about how the national economy will perform over the next 12 months. This is up from 13 per cent in the final quarter of Company optimism was 45 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with 38 percent the previous quarter. These findings reveal how the respondents viewed the prospects for their own companies over the next 12 months. Q2ai. Please select the rating that best describes your view for each of the following. Number of respondents for this question is 640 for Q1 2016, varies for previous quarters. Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder

Nearly half of the survey’s participants (47 per cent) emerged from the opening quarter of 2016 feeling neutral about the economy’s prospects. For those expressing a pessimistic outlook, pessimism fell to 31 per cent in the first quarter of the year, down from 50 per cent in the fourth quarter of Q2ai/ii. Please select the rating that best describes your view for each of the following. Number of respondents for these questions = 640. Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Q Q Q Q Q Change vs. Q Optimism in Canadian Economy for next 12 months % Optimistic 23% 29%17% 13%22% % Neutral 47% 51%42% 38%47% 0 % Pessimistic 30% 20%40% 50%31% +1 Optimism in Business for next 12 months % Optimistic 50% 53%46% 38%45% -5 % Neutral 28% 24%31% 30% +2 % Pessimistic 22% 23%24% 31%26% +4 Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder

Focusing on revenues, 59 per cent of the respondents were projecting growth over the next 12 months, compared with 51 per cent in Q For profits, 51 per cent of those surveyed anticipated an increase, basically unchanged from the previous quarter. Turning to employee numbers, 35 per cent of those surveyed predicted growth at their company, compared to 31 per cent last quarter. Thirty-six per cent of the respondents anticipated no change while 27 per cent expected a drop and the rest did not know. Projected Change in Following Year RevenueProfitsEmployees Total Who Project an Increase 59%51%35% Increase by over 10% 14%13%5% Increase by 5 to 10% 21%16%11% Increase by less than 5% 24%22%18% No Change 8%15%36% Total Who Project a Decrease 31%32%27% Decrease by less than 5% 9%8%12% Decrease by 5 to 10% 9%8%7% Decrease by over 10% 14%16%8% N/A 1% <1% Don't Know 1%2% Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder Q3a. Thinking about the next 12 months, please indicate how you expect the following to change if at all from the past 12 months for your company. (Potential responses are: Increase by over 10%, Increase by 5 to 10%, Increase by less than 5%, No change, Decrease by less than 5%, Decrease by 5 to 10% and Decrease by over 10%, as well as not applicable and don’t know options) *”Average projected change” is calculated by taking the mid-point of each response option (e.g. answers of “less than 5%” are revised to +/-2.5, answers of “5% to 10%” are revised to +/-7.5 and responses of “10% or more” are revised to +/-12.5) and then calculating the average of those mid-points across all respondents. Responses of “N/a” and “Don’t’ know” are excluded from the average. Number of respondents for these questions = 640. Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Average Projected Change*: Revenue+1.3% Profits+0.6% Employees+0.1%

Q3b. How do you view the current relationship between Canada and the United States on a political/diplomatic level at this time? Number of respondents for this question = 640. Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder Almost six-in-ten (57 per cent) of those surveyed viewed the current relationship between Canada and the U.S. on a political and diplomatic level as positive. Ten per cent called it negative.

Q3c. Which of the following areas do you believe present the greatest challenges to Canadian/U.S. relations? Number of respondents for this question = 640. Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder The top three responses for challenges to Canada and U.S. relations were: energy, trade tariffs and the environment. <1%

Q3d. Which of the following best describes your view of the economic outlook for the United States in the next 12 months? Number of respondents for this question = 640. Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder Almost half of the survey respondents (49 per cent) were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Only 12 per cent expressed pessimism.

Oil prices remained the biggest challenge to the Canadian economy cited by 39 per cent of survey participants. The next highest response was uncertainty about the Canadian economy referenced by 14 per cent of respondents. Q4. Which of the following do you think is the top challenge to the growth of the Canadian economy? Number of respondents for this question = 640. Note: Percentages less than 4% in Q are not shown in the above chart. Q CPA Canada Business Monitor Backgrounder Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q %32%38%39% 16%14%15%21%14% 8%7%14%9%10% 7%5%4%5%6% 12%17%8%5%6% 4% 5% 6%5% 4%