Gérard Vittek Head of section “index of the cost of construction and rent” 20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The producer price index for construction in France Prices of construction index

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French NUTS1

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Sampling in the building permits database The sample of building permits is selected in the building permits database. New construction Construction of a house or a flat In a moving window of 12 months before the beginning of the quarter.

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the questionnaire to the database The database of French ministry of Ecology contains: –Information from building permits database –Information from survey database step 1 (to isolate real new construction of houses or of flat and to eliminate renovation, extension, and so on) –Information from survey database step 2 (to collect price and characteristics) –Information from Sub-municipal urban data by district: this area offers data from administrative sources or surveys on income and businesses for the IRIS-classification districts in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the questionnaire to the database The database of French ministry of Ecology contains: Information from building permits database : Date of the building permit Address of the construction Type of construction : Pure individual Grouped individual Bloc of flats

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Pure individual questionnaire

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Questionnaire for more than one flat

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 1 Destination of the construction: primary residence, second home What do you want to do with it? personal occupation Renting out Getting rental - accession For sale Timeshare for sale Date of the market price

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 2 Type of contract of construction: global market versus separated markets Painting or flooring done by the buyer Heating Air conditioned Fixtures and fittings sanitary Kitchens Roadworks networks,..., facilities and ground equipment Demolitions Special and recovery foundation substructure Architect's fees or equivalent Life insurance works or other insurance falling to owner

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 2 Date of signing of market Date at which prices have been established (reference date) Otherwise, when the estimate was established Date of start of work, actual or forecast Estimated duration of the work And so on.

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) French output price index from the regressions to the OPC In a first database we add the database of the quarter. Addition of the data relative to income Addition of data relative to seaside and mountain Addition of the number of construction by trimester of year and by type of construction

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Weights Calculation of the average price of construction by quarter and by type of construction Using the number of construction and the average price of construction by quarter and by type of construction, we obtain the quarterly value of construction by type of construction

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Regression of pure individual Creation of database Pure individual with the global database previously created A Selection of the first moving window Creation of times-dummies First regression Elimination of the outliers (null weights) Second regression with the weights Storage of the parameters of the regression, predicted values, T-values in a table Return to A and extraction of the next moving window until the end of the database

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Regression: Pure individual model

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Regression: Grouped individual model

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Regression: Bloc of flats model

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Elementary indices Calculation of quarterly evolution by type of construction Calculation of elementary indices by type of construction Winsorisation of the elementary indices (not compulsory)

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Elementary indices of output price index in construction

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Aggregated Indice

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Elementary price indices Each model is used to calculate a price index evolution of construction grade (pure individual, grouped individual and collective dwellings) quarterly constant quality from the exponential of the difference between the variable in the last quarter of the regression and the previous quarter. It then calculates an index with a reference 1 in Q quarterly measure the evolution of prices of building category i and writes:

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 21 Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Chaining the previous annual average (weighted) The weights of the Paasche index using the number of units in the quarter under review and the average price of each type of construction to that date. For the three months a year, an average is calculated to serve the "annual recovery" for the calculation of the quarters of the following year. If we denote the i (pure individual, grouped individual and collective dwellings) type of construction, while the average annual price index is calculated as follows :

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 22 Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Theory Paasche ensures consistency in aggregation of aggregated indices from formulas of harmonic means, such as: Which reads as an aggregate evolution obtained detailed harmonic mean weighted annual values ​​ covering developments. Only values ​​ and price indices are used without the use of quantities and average prices (which are unclean because heterogeneous quality).

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Publication and dissemination Quarterly publication 13 th march 2015 : 2014Q4 12 th June 2015: 2015Q1 11 th September 2015 : 2015Q3 11 th December 2015 : 2015Q3 hageSeries.action?idbank= &codeGroupe=1

20 th to 22 th May of 2015 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) Output price index of construction

Thank you for your attention! Contact M. Gérard Vittek Tél. : Insee 18 bd Adolphe-Pinard Paris Cedex 14 Informations statistiques : / Contacter l’Insee (coût d’un appel local) du lundi au vendredi de 9h00 à 17h00 Output price index for construction