Influence of selectivity and size composition misfit on the scaling of population estimates and possible solutions: an example with north Pacific albacore.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Modeling Recruitment in Stock Synthesis

Advertisements

An exploration of alternative methods to deal with time-varying selectivity in the stock assessment of YFT in the eastern Pacific Ocean CAPAM – Selectivity.

Are the apparent rapid declines in top pelagic predators real? Mark Maunder, Shelton Harley, Mike Hinton, and others IATTC.

Sheng-Ping Wang 1,2, Mark Maunder 2, and Alexandre Aires-Da-Silva 2 1.National Taiwan Ocean University 2.Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission.

Growth in Age-Structured Stock Assessment Models R.I.C. Chris Francis CAPAM Growth Workshop, La Jolla, November 3-7, 2014.

Model Selection for Selectivity in Fisheries Stock Assessments André Punt, Felipe Hurtado-Ferro, Athol Whitten 13 March 2013; CAPAM Selectivity workshop.

AIGKC Model North Pacific Fishery Management Council Crab Modeling Workshop Report.

Dealing with interactions between area and year Mark Maunder IATTC.

Black Sea Bass – Northern Stock Coastal-Pelagic/ASMFC Working Group Review June 15, 2010.

The current status of fisheries stock assessment Mark Maunder Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) Center for the Advancement of Population.

Sardine: a fable of six blind men and two elephants Paul E. Smith NOAA-Fisheries Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California CMD La Jolla.

Are pelagic fisheries managed well? A stock assessment scientists perspective Mark Maunder and Shelton Harley Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission

Hui-Hua Lee 1, Kevin R. Piner 1, Mark N. Maunder 2 Evaluation of traditional versus conditional fitting of von Bertalanffy growth functions 1 NOAA Fisheries,

How many conditional age-at-length data are needed to estimate growth in stock assessment models? Xi He, John C. Field, Donald E. Pearson, and Lyndsey.

The (potential) value and use of empirical estimates of selectivity in integrated assessments John Walter, Brian Linton, Will Patterson and Clay Porch.

Time-Varying vs. Non-Time- Varying Growth in the Gulf of Mexico King Mackerel Stock Assessment: a Case Study Southeast Fisheries Science Center Jeff Isely,

Megan Stachura and Nathan Mantua University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences September 8, 2012.

Gary D. Marty 1, Peter-John F. Hulson 2, Sara E. Miller 2, Terrance J. Quinn II 2, Steve D. Moffitt 3, Richard A. Merizon 3 1 School of Veterinary Medicine,

Maximum likelihood estimates of North Pacific albacore tuna ( Thunnus alalunga ) von Bertalanffy growth parameters using conditional-age-at-length data.

Evaluation of a management measure restricting catch below 60cm Mark N. Maunder and Patrick Tomlinson.

ASSESSMENT OF BIGEYE TUNA (THUNNUS OBESUS) IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN January 1975 – December 2006.

Use of multiple selectivity patterns as a proxy for spatial structure Felipe Hurtado-Ferro 1, André E. Punt 1 & Kevin T. Hill 2 1 University of Washington,

Pacific Hake Management Strategy Evaluation Joint Technical Committee Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Pacific Biological Station, DFO School of.

Spatial issues in WCPO stock assessments (bigeye and yellowfin tuna) Simon Hoyle SPC.

A retrospective investigation of selectivity for Pacific halibut CAPAM Selectivity workshop 14 March, 2013 Ian Stewart & Steve Martell.

Evaluation of a practical method to estimate the variance parameter of random effects for time varying selectivity Hui-Hua Lee, Mark Maunder, Alexandre.

1 II-Main scientific and management results expected from the tagging programme 1) Stock structure and migrations 2) Tuna growth 3) Natural mortality as.

2007 ICCAT SCRS Executive Summay for Atlantic Bigeye Tuna 2007 ICCAT SCRS Executive Summay for Atlantic Bigeye Tuna.

Workshop on Stock Assessment Methods 7-11 November IATTC, La Jolla, CA, USA.

The management of small pelagics. Comprise the 1/3 of the total world landings Comprise more than 50% of the total Mediterranean landings, while Two species,

USING INDICATORS OF STOCK STATUS WHEN TRADITIONAL REFERENCE POINTS ARE NOT AVAILABLE: EVALUATION AND APPLICATION TO SKIPJACK TUNA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

M.S.M. Siddeeka*, J. Zhenga, A.E. Puntb, and D. Pengillya

West Atlantic bluefin tuna Executive Summary. Biology Continued progress in knowledge of bluefin biology, but the complex behaviour of this species means.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 1 Model Misspecification and Diagnostics and the.

Extending length-based models for data-limited fisheries into a state-space framework Merrill B. Rudd* and James T. Thorson *PhD Student, School of Aquatic.

SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Introduction SEFSC July , 2015.

1 Yi-Jay Chang 2 Brian Langseth 3 Mark Maunder 1 Felipe Carvalho Performance of a stock assessment model with misspecified time-varying growth 1 – JIMAR,

Estimation of growth within stock assessment models: implications when using length composition data Jiangfeng Zhu a, Mark N. Maunder b, Alexandre M. Aires-da-Silva.

ASSESSMENT OF BIGEYE TUNA (THUNNUS OBESUS) IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN January 1975 – December 2005.

Simulation of methods to account for spatial effects in the stock assessment of Pacific bluefin tuna Cast by: Hui-hua Lee (NOAA Fisheries, SWFSC) Kevin.

Using distributions of likelihoods to diagnose parameter misspecification of integrated stock assessment models Jiangfeng Zhu * Shanghai Ocean University,

Estimation of selectivity in Stock Synthesis: lessons learned from the tuna stock assessment Shigehide Iwata* 1 Toshihde Kitakado* 2 Yukio Takeuchi* 1.

CAN DIAGNOSTIC TESTS HELP IDENTIFY WHAT MODEL STRUCTURE IS MISSPECIFIED? Felipe Carvalho 1, Mark N. Maunder 2,3, Yi-Jay Chang 1, Kevin R. Piner 4, Andre.

Selectivity and two biomass measures in an age-based assessment of Antarctic krill Doug Kinzey, George Watters NOAA/NMFS/SWFSC/AERD CAPAM Workshop, March.

MSE Performance Metrics, Tentative Results and Summary Joint Technical Committee Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Pacific Biological Station, DFO.

Yellowfin Tuna Major Changes Catch, effort, and length-frequency data for the surface fisheries have been updated to include new data for 2005.

Multispecies Catch at Age Model (MSCAGEAN): incorporating predation interactions and statistical assumptions for a predator ‑ prey system in the eastern.

Empirical comparison of historical data and age- structured assessment models for Prince William Sound and Sitka Sound Pacific herring Peter-John F. Hulson,

Modelling population dynamics given age-based and seasonal movement in south Pacific albacore Simon Hoyle Secretariat of the Pacific Community.

Likelihood profiling of differently weighted models Doug Kinzey, George M.Watters, and Christian S. Reiss NOAA SWFSC Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division.

Data weighting and data conflicts in fishery stock assessments Chris Francis Wellington, New Zealand CAPAM workshop, “ Data conflict and weighting, likelihood.

NWFSC A short course on data weighting and process error in Stock Synthesis Allan Hicks CAPAM workshop October 19, 2015.

Day 4, Session 1 Abundance indices, CPUE, and CPUE standardisation

CPUE analysis methods, progress and plans for 2011 Simon Hoyle.

Population Dynamics and Stock Assessment of Red King Crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska Jie Zheng Alaska Department of Fish and Game Juneau, Alaska, USA.

Is down weighting composition data adequate to deal with model misspecification or do we need to fix the model? Sheng-Ping Wang, Mark N. Maunder National.

Abundance Trends and Fisheries for Highly Migratory Species

Pacific-Wide Assessment of Bigeye Tuna

Day 1 Session 1 Overview of tuna fisheries and stock assessment in the WCPO

SEDAR Uncertainty Workshop

TDW10: April 2016, Noumea, New Caledonia

Current developments on steepness for tunas:

SESSION 4 Annual Catch Estimates Introduction/Objectives – WCPFC Obligations Seventh Tuna Data Workshop (TDW-7) April 2013 SPC, Noumea, New Caledonia.

Evaluation of the 2004 Resolution on the Conservation of Tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean (Resolution C-04-09)

SESSION 4 Annual Catch Estimates Introduction/Objectives – WCPFC Obligations Sixth Tuna Data Workshop (TDW-6) April 2012 SPC, Noumea, New Caledonia.

Evaluation of the 2004 Resolution on the Conservation of Tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean (Resolution C-04-09)

Effects of Catch-at-Age Sample Size on Gulf of Mexico Gray Triggerfish Spawning Stock Biomass Estimates Jeff Isely SEFSC Miami.

Evaluation of the 2004 Resolution on the Conservation of Tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean (Resolution C-04-09)

Pribilof Island red king crab

Presentation transcript:

Influence of selectivity and size composition misfit on the scaling of population estimates and possible solutions: an example with north Pacific albacore Steven L. H. Teo and Kevin R. Piner Southwest Fisheries Science Center CAPAM Selectivity Workshop March

What is the Problem? Highly migratory species move around a lot! Regional fisheries Many HMS assessments do not model movement due to lack of consistent tagging data Assume well-mixed stock and differences in selex used as proxies for movements But selex processes modeled as less variable in time and space than actual movements

What is the Problem? May cause important misfit to size compositions Influence recruitment and population scaling Similar to mis-specified time- varying selex In addition, mis-specified selex of one regional fishery can be strongly linked to selex of other fisheries catching

Albacore non-example 16 fleets, 8 fisheries dependent indices, and conditional age-at-length Estimate growth Spawning biomass scaled strongly with weighting of size composition data Size composition weighted to 0.01 R0 vs Weighting plot R0 profile plots

Albacore Piner Plots Size composition weighting of 0.01

Albacore Piner Plots Size composition weighting of 1.0

Plan B Western PacificEastern Pacific Operating model based on Piner et al SS model of Pacific bluefin tuna with 2 box annual movement (no tagging data) Somewhat funky movement model All fish move back to western Pacific after every year and no fish move to eastern Pacific after age 4 Created synthetic data set from the model (expected data without obs errors) Age 1-4 Age fisheries 4 longline indices 1 age-0 index 2 fisheries (1 selex) 3 purse seine indices Age-based logistic selex

SS Estimation Model Estimated dynamics using SS model with no movement Compare different methods of dealing with the selectivity and misfit 1.Estimate EPO selex (with and without time blocks) 2.Fix selex with previous model run and don’t fit to lencomp data (with and without time blocks) 3.Downweight lencomp data 4.Annual time-varying selex 5.Calc average selex from annual time-varying selex and don’t fit to data (with and without time blocks) 6.Kitakado the EPO selex (with and without time blocks) 7.Kitakado the EPO selex with time-varying selex to help with convergence

Eastern Pacific Size data

Selectivity of Eastern Pacific PS

Time-Varying Selectivity

Eastern Pacific Size Comp Fits Estimate selectivity with no time block

Eastern Pacific Size Comp Fits

Recruitment

Spawning Biomass

SSB with Timeblocks in Selectivity

SSB using Kitakado Method

Prelim Results & To Do List See Felipe’s talk R0 profile (aka Piner Plots) useful in understanding scaling influences in model Do time-varying selex at least once to understand how selex might be changing – try non- parametric selex Create a new synthetic data set with a simpler model (fewer fisheries & indices) with varying amounts of movement Include observation and other process errors How does that affect management?

Averaging Blocks of Selectivity from Time-varying Selectivity Fit time-varying selex model Average the annual selex for wanted time blocks Use selex24.xls and solver to get selex parms Use parms in fixed selex for fishery and don’t fit to size comp data