Comments on Competitiveness and Growth in Trinidad and Tobago Christina Daseking and Irineu de Carvalho Filho (IMF)

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Presentation transcript:

Comments on Competitiveness and Growth in Trinidad and Tobago Christina Daseking and Irineu de Carvalho Filho (IMF)

Glass Half Full or Half Empty? Growing energy dependence but nonenergy is not doing so bad either... Growing energy dependence but nonenergy is not doing so bad either...

T&T has been one of the fastest growing energy-producing economies...

...is running one of the highest current account surpluses...

...has greatly strengthened its net international investment position...

...and has improved its public finances.

But... fiscal policy has been highly procyclical adding to volatility fiscal policy has been highly procyclical adding to volatility

and... nonenergy exports remain very low,... nonenergy exports remain very low,...

while... oil and gas reserves will soon be exhausted. oil and gas reserves will soon be exhausted.

Government’s Vision 2020 Improve quality of education Improve quality of education Improve infrastructure Improve infrastructure Strengthen governance Strengthen governance Increase R&D Increase R&D Ensure stable macro environment Ensure stable macro environment

Challenge: Balance Costs of Diversification Strategy With Sound Fiscal Policy Share wealth with future generations Share wealth with future generations Ensure fiscal stability and sustainability Ensure fiscal stability and sustainability Support development of non-energy export sector by reducing Dutch disease Support development of non-energy export sector by reducing Dutch disease

Fiscal Policy Recommendations Reduce nonenergy deficit now to build up net assets that permanently finance future deficits (constant in real terms or GDP) Reduce nonenergy deficit now to build up net assets that permanently finance future deficits (constant in real terms or GDP) Avoid procyclical stance Avoid procyclical stance

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