Risks to Nutrition from Increasing Climate Variability Harold Alderman April 23, 2009

Global Warming Will be Accompanied by Increased Climate Variability In addition to trends in temperature that will lower yields of major crops such as maize in Africa, IPCC expects higher climate variability Heavy precipitation events rated very likely Increased cyclones likely An increase in areas that are drought prone also likely

Panel Studies of Consequences of Child Malnutrition Provide Evidence on Climate Shocks Various studies use weather or price shocks (weather one step removed) to separate effects of malnutrition from poverty Droughts in Zimbabwe (2 periods) Ethiopia and Tanzania, flood in Bangladesh, price movements in Pakistan Results broadly consistent with evidence from long term experiment in Guatemala

Economic Consequences can be Substantial Drought in Zimbabwe led to decreased schooling and lower adult height estimated to cost 7% of lifetime earnings In Tanzania, a drought in the first 5 years of a child’s life also resulted in late school entry and few completed years of school Taking only the impact of years of schooling on wages any assistance that cost less than this would have a favorable benefit:cost ratio Cost much higher when reduced height is considered as well

Avoiding these Losses A 10% increase in the area of a farm affected by drought in Ethiopia led to a 1.8% decrease in child growth in the subsequent 6 months Food aid largely offset this where it was delivered Argument for emergency use of food aid (though this study did not test if income transfer would have had the same impact)

Setting up Counter Cyclical Safety Nets Three Components needed: –Flexible financing –Contingent targeting –Scalable programs Flexible financing most vexing as timing is critical Scalable programs need to be designed prior to the drought or flood to be effective These points valid for preparation for price or financial crises as well

Addressing Specifics of Nutrition Most counter-cyclical safety nets address household resources, either through food or income transfers or public works earnings Ready to use therapeutic foods (RUTF), however, are specific curative innovation that proves cost effective Adaptation to preventative programs is still controversial, however.