(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources:

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Presentation transcript:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) New Scenarios “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300 “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  climate targets for avoiding risks - long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation Global scenarios for two time periods “near-term” scenarios  2035 “near-term” scenarios  potential for “prediction” - directly linked to policy planning

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Approaches to Scenario Development Previous (e.g., SRES)Planned (e.g., RCP)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Expected Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 rising risingRCP6 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP W/m 2 in W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP3-PD peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 decline after peak decline after peak

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models) resolutiondecadallong-termatmos.-only atmosphere horiz. (deg) levels2534 ocean horiz. (deg) NA levels3839NA (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) END Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research