A Think Tank for Forward Looking Assessment A Basis for Discussion © AccesscodeHFM

Content 2 Context Objective Process Products

Context 3 Drastic change 80 % reduction is equivalent to 5 % p.a. until 2050! risks and uncertainties model improvement and new approach Social context participation is essential for implementation Global problems – local policy linking the regional scales will be crucial

This Paper 4 Context  EIONET WS in Prague / EEA invitation  Since then, a lot of activities by EEA, Modeller Community, Member States  „Long-term Pathways Project“ at Umweltbundesamt  Take part at „Europe Vision 2050“ (EPA)  How could EIONET/NRC best add value?

Think Tank Objective 5 (1) NRC perspective: Commenting on scenarios for forward looking assessments „Open to all issues“ Long-/ medium term questions/ideas for sustainable development Upcoming macrotrends / regional trends Emerging markets/technologies Social innovations, inspirations and visions (2) Methodological Advice on targets and approaches „Modell independent“ Wildcards, uncertainties, shocks, risks Resilience/rebound effects

Think Tank Process 6  Small group – two meetings a year (creative workshops)  Use software tools only for simple assessments (crucial/non-crucial)  Follow a well defined Work Flow  Sensing : generate ideas; New trends, anticipated risks  Organizing : selected and prioritized work issues  Investigation : Analyze effect of working issues  Reporting : standard publication format “terms of future” papers  A well defined organizational structure  Part of NRC  Chair in rotation  Funding?

Think Tank Products 7  Network: ad-hoc advice/feedback  New format for the publication of ideas and assessments  Specified input to EEA work/products  [General Guidelines]  [Research need on methods and instruments]

Contact DI Manfred Ritter Head of Unit Emissions & Climat Change Environment Agency Austria 8 Umweltbundesamt ■ 9. September