Applying Ensemble Prediction Systems to DoD Operations 1Lt Jeffrey Cunningham, USAF AFIT Graduate Student at the Naval Postgraduate School Support AF Thesis Sponsor: Major Tony Eckel at AFWA/DNXM (AF Thesis TOPIC 39) NPS Thesis Advisors: Dr. Chuck Wash & Dr. Pat Harr Address

Introduction - Thesis Motivation 1.The atmosphere has a limit of predictability. –This causes there to be uncertainty in forecasts –Traditional deterministic forecasts lack important uncertainty information (Wilks 1995; Anthes 1986; Lewis 2005). 2.Quantifying uncertainty may improve a weather forecast user’s ability to make better decisions according to their utility functions (Zhu et al. 2002), which could translate to better operational risk management for the Air Force. 3.Traditional deterministic forecasts will likely be inadequate for future advanced dynamic decision- making models that will be inherent in advanced weapon systems. –Timely and reliable automated forecasts will be needed for machine-to-machine operations

Case 3 Blue – Probabilistic System Red – Deterministic System

12 Hour Probabilistic Forecast (FL ) Probability of MDT or greater Turbulence Legend Deterministic Forecast Original AR Track MDT Turbulence Alternative AR Track

Relating C and L to military forecast users C is assumed to be a fixed average cost of protecting L is a function of mission priority and risk level, with mission priority having more value than risk level.