Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: papers, etc:

Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many others Climate Science Communication and the Disentanglement Principle

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Everything I know about climate science communication:

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

“Belief” in evolution

probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer 1st percentile “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen]

probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer 1st percentile “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen]

probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile1st percentile “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] probability of correct answer

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile1st percentile “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity probability of correct answer Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity probability of correct answer

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile1st percentile “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) probability of correct answer Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity probability of correct answer “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false)

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile1st percentile probability of correct answer Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false)

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

“Belief” in global warming

global warming risk

“Belief” in global warming global warming risk

“Belief” in global warming global warming risk

probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile1st percentile probability of correct answer Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

“Climate science literacy” battery Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press)

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 50th percentile Climate science literacy & general science literacy

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 50th percentile > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Climate science literacy & general science literacy

Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Positions on global warming Pct. Agree

Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy & positions on global warming No. correct

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 99th percentile 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of global warming due to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

“97% consesnsus” social marketing campaign

Disentanglement principle:

“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Soute Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” United States as a whole (summer 2013) Southeast Florida (Fall 2013)

4 SE Fla. Counties > avg. Left_right 78% agree “Local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.” pct. agree “Landuse planners should identify assess and revise existing laws to assure that they reflect the risks posed by rising sea level and extreme weather.” pct. agree Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press)

Soute Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Not “us vs. them” just us—using what we know Southeast Florida science communication

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Not “us vs. them” just us—using what we know Southeast Florida science communication

Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? So you tell me!

Climate: Local govt Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Evolution: Classroom

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? So you tell me! Great! I’ll measure!!

Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!”

Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School Donald Braman George Washington University John Gastil University of Washington Geoffrey Cohen Stanford University Paul Slovic University of Oregon Ellen Peters Ohio State University Hank Jenkins-Smith University of Oklahoma David Hoffman Temple Law School Gregory Mandel Temple Law School Maggie Wittlin Cultural Cognition Project Lab Lisa Larrimore-Ouelette Cultural Cognition Project Lab Danieli Evans Cultural Cognition Project Lab June Carbone Univ. Missouri-Kansas City Michael Jones Safra Ethics Center, Harv. Univ. Naomi Cahn George Washington University Jeffrey Rachlinksi Cornell Law School John Byrnes Cultural Cognition Project Lab John Monahan University of Virginia

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”