Presented by Gerald A. Bange Chairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board United State Department of Agriculture Commodity Situation and Outlook Terrapinn Agriculture Investment Summit The Marine’s Memorial Club, San Francisco, CA October 24 – 25, 2012

USDA’S Monthly WASDE Report 2

Progression of Drought 3 July 17, 2012 May 29, 2012 June 26, 2012 August 7, 2012

Wheat Situation & Outlook 2012/13 4 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook Rebound in acreage Record yields Larger supplies and higher usage Prices rise with corn Global wheat supply and demand outlook World production down Weather reduced crops in EU-27 and FSU /09 and 2009/10 production supports stocks World stocks well above levels in 2007/08

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand 5

6

7

World Wheat Production 8

9 World Wheat Production & Consumption

World Wheat Ending Stocks 10

Corn Situation & Outlook 2012/13 11 U.S. corn supply and demand outlook Early planting and large acreage Devastating June and July drought and heat Sharply lower yields and production Tight supplies, record prices, and reduced usage Global corn supply and demand outlook Rising foreign corn consumption Rising foreign production World production falling below consumption

U.S. Corn Planted Area 12

U.S. Corn Production 13

U.S. Drought Monitor 14

Days Greater Than 100 degrees F, Jun. 1 – Aug. 4,

United States Corn Areas in Drought

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 17

U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Disappearance 18

U.S. Corn Exports 19

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use 20

U.S. Farm Prices for Corn 21

U.S. Farm Prices for Wheat 22

Renewable Fuel Standard 23 Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol Production 24

Ethanol and Gasoline Prices 25 Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol $.48 10/15/12

World Grain Area Used for U.S. Ethanol, 2012/13P 26 Note: Share of world coarse grain, wheat, and rice harvested area used for U.S. ethanol..

World Corn Production 27

Rest-of-world Corn Production 28

U.S. Corn Yields vs. Rest-of-World Yields 29

World Corn Consumption 30

31 World Corn Production & Consumption

World Corn and Wheat Stocks Relative to Use 32

Soybean Situation & Outlook 2012/13 33 U.S. soybean supply and demand outlook Early planting and large acreage June and July drought and heat Lower yields and production Tight supplies, record prices, and reduced usage Global supply and demand outlook Strong import demand led by China Limited South American supplies until Spring 2013 Record South American area planted fall 2012 World ending stocks rebuild slowly in 2013

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 34

World Soybean Production 35

Global Soybean Imports Billion Bushels

Soybean Prices Dollars per bushel 37

Soybean Meal Prices Dollars per ton 38

Feed Cost Outlook Higher feed prices for most of year –Corn: $7.10-$8.50/bu in 2012/13 $6.22 in 2011/12 $5.18 in 2010/2011 –Soybean meal: $470-$500 ton in 2012/13 $394 in 2011/12 $345 in 2010/2011 Feed prices should moderate moving into 2013/14 crop year 39

* % Change Cattle, $/cwt Hogs, $/cwt (live equiv.) City Broilers, ¢/lb Turkey, $/lb Livestock & Poultry Price Outlook* * Midpoint of October 11 WASDE 40

Total Meat Production Lower* Billion pounds % Change Beef Pork Broiler Meat Turkey Total Red Meat And Poultry *October 11 WASDE 42

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand 43

44 USDA Data Links World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Economic Research Service: Foreign Agricultural Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

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