represent degrees of belief For any two random variables: Why represent degrees of belief with **probabilities**? Good **statistics** consistency, **and** worst-case error bounds. Cox Axioms necessary to cohere with common sense “Dutch **Book**” + Survival of the Fittest if your beliefs do not accord with the laws of **probability**, then you can always be out-gambled by someone whose beliefs do so accord. Provides a/

, such as error recovery For more on frameworks, see Linda Hayes’ **book** on automated testing, Tom Arnold’s **book** on Visual Test, **and** Mark Fewster & Dorothy Graham’s excellent new **book** “Software Test Automation.” Fall 2002. Real-time Simulator Test embodies rules / / **Statistical** Testing: Thoughts Toward an Architecture We have a population of tests, which may have been sandboxed **and** which may carry self-check info. A test series involves a sample of these tests. We have a population of diagnostics, **probably** too/

example(s) (unlike TM) identifies the corresponding fragments in the target text(s) (align) **And** recombines them to give the target text 8/30 He buys a **book** on international politics Input Matches He buys a notebook. Kare wa n ō to o kau./trying other combinations Language model 21/30 Where do the models come from? All the **statistical** parameters are pre- computed, based on a parallel corpus Language model is **probabilities** of word sequences (n-grams) Translation model is derived from aligned parallel corpus 22/

it is a small portion for Milo, but a large one for a man just beginning to go in for athletics. Nichomachean Ethics, **Book** II, Chapter 6 (italics added) “ (Arithmetic) Mean” for the Greek: Aristotle (384-322 BC) By the mean of / mean. Biometrika, 45, 130-135. Reprinted in E. S. Pearson & M. G. Kendall (Eds.) (1970), Studies in the history of **statistics** **and** **probability** (pp. 121-126). London: Charles Griffin & Co. Ltd. Historical Example 1 Story of Nala in the great Indian epic Mahábarata (well before/

Dunn This PowerPoint is intended to be used as a walk-through of the New Illinois Learning Standards for **Statistics** **and** **Probability** allocated to Algebra I / Math I. In addition to providing example activities, guidance of key points to emphasize/ Flip **Book** Common Core State Standards for Mathematics. http://www.azed.gov/azcommoncore/files/2012/11/high-school-ccss-flip- **book**-usd-259-2012.pdf Thank you for joining us! The New Illinois Learning Standards for Algebra I / Math I **Statistics** **and** **Probability** Thank/

who did not draw logical consequences. Hume (cont.d) His philosophical **book** A Treatise on Human Nature, was written in Paris at a young age, ignored, shortened & republished as An Inquiry into Human Understanding. (cont.d) In the section “Of Knowledge **and** **Probability**” Hume considers as “**probable**” not consequences of applying **probability** theory or **statistics**, but knowledge derived from empirical data by inferences not definitive or/

, but the mode has obvious applications. Some data seems to defy summary. How would you summarize the phone numbers in the Knoxville phone **book**? Nothing is useful but the actual data. **Probability** **and** **Statistics** for Teachers, Math 507, Lecture 3 **Statistical** Interlude Examples of summaries that do or do not work Again, consider a small company in which 10 workers make various salaries of about/

forward to compute other quantities such as the mean radius of gyration **and** the **probability** distribution of the end to end distance [1]. In many /the computer Hurst’s analysis predated the computer. As described in Feder’s **book** [43], he used instead a relabeled deck of 52 cards + a joker/**and** further reading The material on equilibrium **statistical** mechanics is standard **and** can be found in many textbooks. A possible choice for a graduate level text is: [1] M. Plischke **and** B. Bergersen: Equilibrium **Statistical**/

mathematics topic Why are you here? Introductions – Introduce another person in our class to everyone! 2 **Books** Used in Workshop Navigating through Data Analysis **and** **Probability** in grades 3-5 by Chapin, Koziol, MacPherson, Rezba (ISBN 978-0-87353- 521-2) published by NCTM Exploring **Statistics** in Elementary Grades **Book** 1 by Bereska, Bolster, Bolster, Schaffer (ISBN 1-57232-344-2) published by Dale Seymore/

persons on an airplane that can seat only 14. Because past studies have revealed that only 85% of the **booked** passengers actually arrive for the flight. Find the **Probability** that if Air America **books** 15 persons, not enough seats will be available. 29 Probabilistic **and** **Statistical** Techniques Example 9 An automobile manufacturer has determined that 30% of all gas tanks that were installed on its/

P’s **and** a W”, or Possible, **Probable**, **and** Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-**probability** but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create, discover, **and** manage (“CDM”) the future. Creation (“Possible”) – personal, collective, **and** entrepreneurial tools **and** strategies for imagining **and** creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research **and** development, creative thinking, social networking Discovery (“**Probable**” **and** “Wildcards”) – forecasting methods, metrics, **statistical** trends/

data set called B, which is used in Roger E. Kirks **book** Experimental Design: Procedures for Behavioral Sciences (Psychology) (ISBN 0534250920). /**probability** plot Analyze > Descriptive **Statistics** > Explore Under plots select histogram, also normality plots with tests, descriptive **statistics** **and** boxplots are default options. 265 Normal **probability** plot 266 Normal **probability** plot 267 Normal **probability** plot These tests are considered in the next section. 268 Normal **probability** plot 269 Normal **probability**/

, odds ratio (not in **book**) Conditional **probability** (11.1) **Statistics**: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Exam 1 Friday, 2/13, in class You can bring One single-sided page (8 ½ x 11) of notes A non-cell phone calculator Exam will cover Everything covered through today’s class Chapters 1 **and** 2, plus today’s material Lecture **and** lab (but not Minitab commands/

Gonzalez & R. E. Woods Gonzalez & Woods Review of **Probability** Relative Frequency & Prob. (Con’t) If A **and** B are **statistically** independent, then P(B/A) = P(B) **and** it follows that **and** It was stated earlier that if sets (events) A **and** B are mutually exclusive, then A B = Ø /ed. www.ImageProcessingPlace.com © 1992–2008 R. C. Gonzalez & R. E. Woods Gonzalez & Woods Review of **Probability** Random Variables (Con’t) In Sec. 3.3 of the **book** we used the notation p(r k ), k = 0,1,…, L - 1, to denote the histogram of/

**and** industriousness. Risk **and** Uncertainty Unlikely things happen - **and** likely things fail to happen - all the time. **Probability** vs. **Statistics** Based on assumptions about how the world works, **probability** quantifies the likelihood of a future event. **Statistics** begins with what is observed **and** draws conclusions about how the world works. We can view **probability** as the “inverse” of **statistics**. **Probability** vs. **Statistics**/rooms sold. Yield management decisions The **booking** limit is the number of rooms to /

14 What is the median of the children’s ages? F6 G5 H2 J13 April 2006 #10 Correct Answer - G (6.10) **Probability** **and** **statistics**. The student uses **statistical** representations to analyze data. The student is expected to (C) sketch circle graphs to display data; At Central City Music Store, 15/33 Correct Answer - B Jeremy received $70 as a gift. He wanted to use the money to go to the movies **and** to buy a **book**. He wanted to save the money he had left. Which is the correct order of steps to find the amount of /

market conditions; greater **probability** of secondary sales, buybacks **and** write-offs in bad market conditions 20 © Cumming & Johan (2013)Exits 21 © Cumming & Johan (2013)Exits 22 © Cumming & Johan (2013)Exits 23 © Cumming & Johan (2013)Exits 24 © Cumming & Johan (2013)Exits RegressionsIPOAcquisitionSecondary SaleBuybackWrite-off Panel A (Condensed) Marginal Effectt-statisticMarginal Effectt-**statistic** Marginal Effect t-statisticMarginal Effectt-**statistic** Marginal Effect t-**statistic** Constant-0.127-2/

or “discriminate” between differences in two or more groups when one knows beforehand that such groupings exist, **and** (ii)subsequently assign a future unclassified observation into a specific group with the smallest **probability** of error. Chap 8-Data Analysis **Book**-Reddy9 Example 8.2.2. **Statistical** classification of office buildings The objective is to distinguish between medium-sized office buildings which are ordinary (type/

for grades first through third, it can be used as an introduction to **probability** **and** **statistics** for grades nine through ten. Students at this level will already understand the concept of **probability** **and** how it is used daily. This will be a good introduction tool because the **book** is different from the text **and** can be a fun for the students. Battleship “Battleship”. Milton Bradley Company, 1931/

(A,u), (B,u)) 250 CSE 5331/7331 F09 The world is imprecise. Mathematical **and** **Statistical** techniques often unsatisfactory. Mathematical **and** **Statistical** techniques often unsatisfactory. –Experts make decisions with imprecise data in an uncertain world. –They work with / more the degree of belonging. (N.B. This is not a **probability**) The translation from x to µ A (x) is known as/ Image Processing http://users.ecs.soton.ac.uk/msn/**book**/ Feature Extraction Tutorial Feature Extraction Tutorial http://facweb.cs/

at various numbers that might do this job (mean, median, mode), **and** we looked at data resistant to summary (e.g., phone **books**). The key is to make sure the summary is clear **and** accurate, just as you would in writing a summary of a **book**. **Probability** **and** **Statistics** for Teachers, Math 507, Lecture 5 31 **Statistical** Interlude God, in His wisdom, has designed the human eye to/

://www.ischool.berkeley.edu/~rosario/ augmented by material drawn from Chris Manning’s **Book** By Barbara Rosario3 Mathematical Foundations Elementary **Probability** Theory Essential Information Theory 4 Motivations **Statistical** NLP aims to do **statistical** inference for the field of NL **Statistical** inference consists of taking some data (generated in accordance with some unknown **probability** distribution) **and** then making some inference about this distribution. 5 Motivations (Cont) An example/

5 6,4] 11 2/36[5,6 6,5] 12 1/36[6,6] What do the **probability** distribution **and** the cumulative **probability** distribution look like? ISE Option Traders **Statistics** with Applications to Options March 2004Copyright (c) 2001-2004 by Marshall, Tucker & Associates, LLC All rights /is no reason why we could not have simultaneously generated potential values for all of the positions in the trader’s **book** (where a **book** is defined as one wherein all options have the same underlying stock, e.g., DELL). Is it also possible /

Obtain this panel in Excel by choosing Insert, Function, **Statistical**, BINOMDIST Using Binomial tables at the end of the **book** To determine the P(x), the **probability** of x successes out of n trials with p, the **probability** of success in each trial: 1)Locate the appropriate /60% of the time. In order to test her, a broker selects five stocks at random from the New York Stock Exchange **and** asks the “witch” to predict whether the price will increase or decrease the next day. Assume that the five predictions are made/

**and**/. All rights reserved. TARGET POPULATION RELEVANT POPULATION OPERATIONALLY DEFINE COMIC **BOOK** READER? Copyright © 2000 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved/RESULT SAND THE RESULT OF A CENSUS CONDUCTED USING IDENTICAL PROCEDURES **STATISTICAL** FLUCTUATION DUE TO CHANCE VARIATIONS Copyright © 2000 by Harcourt,/rights reserved. TWO MAJOR CATEGORIES OF SAMPLING **PROBABILITY** SAMPLING KNOWN, NONZERO **PROBABLITY** FOR EVERY ELEMENT NONPROBABLITY SAMPLING **PROBABLITY** OF SELECTING ANY PARTICULAR MEMBER IS UNKNOWN Copyright/

/**book**.html L. Lyons, **Statistics** for Nuclear **and** Particle Physics, CUP, 1986 W. Eadie et al., **Statistical** **and** Computational Methods in Experimental Physics, North-Holland, 1971 S. Brandt, **Statistical** **and** Computational Methods in Data Analysis, Springer, New York, 1998 (with program library on CD) S. Eidelman et al. (Particle Data Group), Review of Particle Physics, Phys. Lett. B592 (2004) 1; see also pdg.lbl.gov sections on **probability** **statistics**/

**books** n Equiprobable approach n Maximum number of cells not to exceed 100 such that the expected number of observations is at least 5 = Int ( obs/5 ) n Expected number of obs in each cell = obs / cells n More **statistically** robust HYPOTHESES TEST PROCEDURE l Identify Ho **and**/x cell boundaries from the 8 equiprobable cells l For normal distributions n Look up z value corresponding to **probability** n Boundaries =mean+std * Z CALCULATING OBSERVATIONS CellLower%Upper%Lower Z Upper Z lowerxupperxobsexp 100.125-inf058/

much ribbon did Mrs. Taylor use? Answer 66 feet Measurement: 1000 Question: What is the perimeter of the shape below? Answer 40 cm. **Probability** & **Statistics**: 200 Question: How many **books** did Hunter **and** Kaleb read together over the summer? Answer 11 **books** **Probability** & **Statistics**: 400 Question: Jessie made a spinner for a board game. The spinner was divided into 6 equal parts. 2 parts were labeled with/

This course page is linked to VIP Lab. Email: at my webpage. Recommended **books** 3 best **books** covering foundations **and** various aspects of CI (with strong **statistical** bias) R.O. Duda, P.E. Hart, D.G. Stork, Pattern / models Machine learning AI, Expert Systems Pattern Recognition Fuzzy logic Evolutionary algorithms Visualization Multivariate **statistics** Computational Intelligence: Methods **and** Applications Lecture 3 Histograms **and** **probabilities**. Source: Włodzisław Duch; Dept. of Informatics, UMK; Google: W /

0.0037 What if n is large? Calculation would be tedious. Solution… using cummulative binomial distribution table or **statistical** software or excel spreadsheet. Lecture 4Abdull Halim Abdul5 cummulative binomial distribution table already discussed at school. It will only/ Abdul16 If a random variable X is distributed normal with the mean, μ **and** its std deviation, σ then X ~ N(μ, σ 2 ) The **probability** distribution function of X is *Page 250 (text **book**) Lecture 4Abdull Halim Abdul17 If X ~ N(μ, σ 2 ) Then P/

an understanding of **probability** **and** **statistics**. (6.9) **Probability** **and** **statistics**. The student uses experimental **and** theoretical **probability** to make predictions. The student is expected to (A) construct sample spaces using lists **and** tree diagrams; Charlie had 1 red marble, 1 blue marble, 1 yellow marble, **and** 1 green marble/- B Jeremy received $70 as a gift. He wanted to use the money to go to the movies **and** to buy a **book**. He wanted to save the money he had left. Which is the correct order of steps to find the/

**Probability**: What Are the Chances? 5.1 Randomness, **Probability**, **and** Simulation Learning Objectives After this section, you should be able to: The Practice of **Statistics**, 5 thth Edition2 INTERPRET **probability** as a long-run relative frequency. USE simulation to MODEL chance behavior. Randomness, **Probability**, **and**/students wrote his name in the **book**, so when they leave each student takes one of the **books** at random. When the students returned the **books** at the end of the year **and** the clerk scanned their barcodes, /

previous visits to this bookstore, the **probability** distributions of the number of **books** they will buy are given below. Assuming Joe **and** Matthew make their decisions independently, what is the **probability** that they will purchase no **books** on this visit to the bookstore/ plans cannot be evaluated from the information given. Unit 7: Hypothesis Testing 2c. Select **and** use appropriate **statistical** methods in decision-making **and** hypothesis testing. (DOK 2) Significance levels Types of errors P-value 15.The mayor of/

is relationship between variables. 3. Take a final decision, assuming some level of risk (**probability** of being wrong in your decision). Similarity: both are based on the same probabilistic /**and** a standard deviation of 100 pages, can I conclude that my **books** are larger than usual? (α = 0.05). 30 7. Standardized distance. Example 4 31 0 Z 0 =1.92 Z α/2 =1.96 7. Standardized distance. Example 4 32 1.92 < 1.96 → H 0 is accepted. There are not differences. I can not conclude that my **books** are **statistically**/

/**book**.html L. Lyons, **Statistics** for Nuclear **and** Particle Physics, CUP, 1986 W. Eadie et al., **Statistical** **and** Computational Methods in Experimental Physics, North-Holland, 1971 S. Brandt, **Statistical** **and** Computational Methods in Data Analysis, Springer, New York, 1998 (with program library on CD) S. Eidelman et al. (Particle Data Group), Review of Particle Physics, Phys. Lett. B592 (2004) 1; see also pdg.lbl.gov sections on **probability** **statistics**/

**book** value at EV (step 11). (c) DIFFERENCE ESTIMATION: Difference Estimation is **statistical** plan to estimate the total difference between audited values **and** **book** values based on difference obtained form sample observations. Difference Estimation is **statistical** plan to estimate the total difference between audited values **and** **book**/. If a selection is done along with replacement, then each item has a **probability** 1/N of getting selected. Simple Random Sampling Without Replacement (SRSWOR) Once a unit is/

means by which rational agents draw optimal conclusions in an uncertain environment” What is Bayesian Inference? “The only **statistical** procedure that is coherent, meaning that it avoids statements that are internally inconsistent.” What is Bayesian Inference? “A/ Bayes in a Nutshell The Inevitability of **Probability** Bayesian Revolutions This Course A Workshop in Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science Eric-Jan Wagenmakers The Bayesian **Book** …is a course **book** used at UvA **and** UCI. …is still regularly updated. …./

matching noise of some nonparametric imputation procedures”, **Statistics** **and** **Probability** Letters, 78, 1593-1600. Renssen, R.H. (1998) Use of **statistical** matching techniques in calibration estimation. Survey Methodology 24, 171–183. Rubin, D.B. (1986) **Statistical** matching using file concatenation with adjusted weights **and** multiple imputations. Journal of Business **and** Economic **Statistics** 4, 87–94. Poznan 20 October 2010 World **Statistics** Day Micro integration processing It can be applied/

, decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventh-grade science **book** are generally longer than the words in a chapter of a fourth-grade science **book**. Note: Grade 7 also includes **probability** standards Source: corestandards.org **Statistics** & **Probability** – Grade 8 (8.SP) Investigate patterns of association in bivariate data 1. Construct **and** interpret scatter plots for bivariate measurement data to investigate patterns of association/

Outline Lecture 1 **Probability** Random variables, **probability** densities, etc. Lecture 2 Brief catalogue of **probability** densities The Monte Carlo method. Lecture 3 **Statistical** tests Fisher discriminants, neural networks, etc Significance **and** goodness-of-fit tests Lecture 4 Parameter estimation Maximum likelihood **and** least squares Interval estimation (setting limits) G. Cowan 2009 CERN Summer Student Lectures on Statistics3 Some **statistics** **books**, papers, etc. G. Cowan, **Statistical** Data Analysis, Clarendon/

**books** ever,the first letters of the 38 chapters spelled out Poliam frater Franciscus Columna peramavit with the translation Brother Francesco Colonna passionately loves Polia Steganography **and** Watermarking PERFECT SECRECY of STEGOSYSTEMS IV054 PERFECT SECRECY of STEGOSYSTEMS In order to define secrecy of a stegosystems we need to consider · **probability**/ Alice contain a secret message or not. The above task can be formalized as a **statistical** hypothesis-testing problem with the test function f: C ® {0,1}: f(c)/

, **and** **probabilities** should be viewed primarily from this perspective rather than, for example, as ‘propensities’ of physical objects. In this sense, all **probabilities** are conditional, **and** they change when the information changes even when the underlying physical state does not. This is easily demonstrated by suitable ‘balls in an urn’ examples, or the famous Monty Hall Problem. Suggestions: terminology In most text **books** of introductory **statistics**/

**Statistics** **Statistics** give us a common language to share information about numbers To cover some key concepts about **statistics** which we use in everyday clinical research **Probability** Inferential **statistics** Power What are **statistics** for? Providing information about your data that helps to understand what you have found -‘descriptive’ **statistics**/cost analysis, general health **and** well being outcomes. ‘/**Statistics** without Tears – an introduction for non-mathematicians. Penguin **Books** 2000 Rumsey, D. **Statistics**/

**Statistical** filter: sift out inevitable false alarms **and** rank alarms by their true **probabilities** Taming False Alarms from a Domain-Unaware C Analyzer by a **Statistical** Post Analysis SAS 2005 Jaeho Shin3 Outline Airac, Our Analyzer Internals Performance **Statistical**/Alarms from a Domain-Unaware C Analyzer by a **Statistical** Post Analysis SAS 2005 Jaeho Shin17 Experiments With alarms from Parts of the Linux kernel Programs in algorithm text-**books** Learning **and** testing 50%/50% randomly chosen 15 times repeated /

**Statistics**, A. J. Rossman & B. L. Chance Numerical Recipes, W.H. Press, B.P. Flannery, S.A. Teukolsky **and** W.T.Vetterling Origin 6.1 Users Manual, MicroCal Corporation Outline Our motto What those **books** look like Stuff you need to be able to look up Samples & Populations Mean, Standard Deviation, Standard Error **Probability**/, but with enough math to be rigorous. The cover says it all – the **book**’s emphasis is how **statistics** **and** error analysis are important in the everyday. Author John Taylor is known as “Mr./

logical model of a real-system **and** then conducting computer-based experiments with the model to describe, explain, **and** predict the behavior of the real system. Simulation Simulation Where simulation fits in Programming Analysis **Probability** & **Statistics** Modeling Basic Terminology In most /Determine whether the repair staff is idle. These actions are summarized in the system flow diagram showed in the **book** in Figure 17. Otherwise, we process a completion of a repair. To process the completion of a repair/

problem of minimizing the risk functional (1.2) with the above loss function in the situation where the **probability** measure P(x,y) is unknown but the data are given. Three Main Learning Problems Density Estimation (/**and** Labeling Multiclass SVM Gaussian Process Course Evaluation **Book** Chapter Project Homework Exam Documentation References Advances in Learning Theory: Methods, Models **and** Applications, Edited by J.A.K. Suykens ,G. Horvath ,S. Basu C., Micchelli ,J. Vandewalle, 2003 The Nature of **Statistical**/

min( (A,u), (B,u)) 244CSE 5331/7331 F2011 The world is imprecise. Mathematical **and** **Statistical** techniques often unsatisfactory. Mathematical **and** **Statistical** techniques often unsatisfactory. –Experts make decisions with imprecise data in an uncertain world. –They work with /more the degree of belonging. (N.B. This is not a **probability**) The translation from x to µ A (x) is known /Image Processing http://users.ecs.soton.ac.uk/msn/**book**/ Feature Extraction Tutorial Feature Extraction Tutorial http://facweb./

for SOL 8.12 Common Errors ? Misconceptions? Grade 6 Focus: Practical Applications of **Statistics** Grade 7 Focus: Applications of **Statistics** **and** **Probability** Grade 8 Focus: **Statistical** Analysis of Graphs **and** Problem Situations Vertical Articulation of Content SOL 6.15 2014 SPBQ Data – 6.15/ need additional practice determining the appropriate measure of center. This data shows the ages of members of a youth **book** club **and** the age of the facilitator. 11 12 13 14 15 16 1757 What is the most appropriate measure of /

Kare wa kokusai seiji nitsuite kakareta hon o kau Challenge: Finding a good matching metric He bought a notebook A **book** was bought I read a **book** on world politics Variations in EBMT Database of Sentence Aligned corpus Analysis of the SL Depends on how the database/ Modeling Determines the **probability** that the foreign word f is a translation of the English word e How to compute P(f | e) from a parallel corpus? **Statistical** approaches rely on the co-occurrence of e **and** f in the parallel data: If e **and** f tend to/

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