1. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-1 Probability and Counting Rules CHAPTER 4

2. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-2 Objectives Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an event using classical probability or empirical probability. Find the probability of compound events using the addition rules. Find the probability of compound events using the multiplication rules. Find the conditional probability of an event.

3. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-3 Objectives Determine the number of outcomes of a sequence of events using a tree diagram. Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events using the fundamental counting rule. Find the number of ways r objects can be selected from n objects using the permutation rule. Find the number of ways r objects can be selected from n objects without regard to order using the combination rule. Find the probability of an event using the counting rules.

4. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-4 Introduction Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. In addition to being used in games of chance, probability is used in the fields of insurance, investments, and weather forecasting, and in various areas. Rules such as the fundamental counting rule, combination rule and permutation rules allow us to count the number of ways in which events can occur. Counting rules and probability rules can be used together to solve a wide variety of problems.

5. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-5 Basic Concepts A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.

6. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-6 Basic Concepts (cont’d.) Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring. Venn diagrams are used to represent probabilities pictorially.

7. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-7 Classical Probability Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.

8. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-8 Rounding Rule for Probabilities Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal places. When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after the decimal point.

9. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-9 1. The probability of an event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by: Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than one. Probability Rules

10. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-10 Probability Rules (cont’d.) 2. If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample space), the probability is zero. 3. If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1. 4. The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

11. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-11 or Complementary Events The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by. Rule for Complementary Events

12. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-12 Empirical Probability Empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is:

13. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-13 Subjective Probability Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information. In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at the chance that an event will occur. This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation of a solution.

14. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-14 Probability and Risk Taking An area where people fail to understand probability is in risk taking. Actually, people fear situations or events that have a relatively small probability of happening rather than those events that have a greater likelihood of occurring.

15. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-15 Mutually Exclusive Events Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common). The probability of two or more events can be determined by the addition rules.

16. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-16 Addition Rules Addition Rule 1—When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is: Addition Rule 2—If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then:

17. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-17 Independent and Dependent Events Two events A and B are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring. When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent.

18. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-18 Multiplication Rules The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in sequence. Multiplication Rule 1—When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is:

19. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-19 Multiplication Rules (cont’d.) The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A) Multiplication Rule 2—When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:

20. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-20 Formula for Conditional Probability The probability that the second event B occurs given that the first event A has occurred can be found dividing the probability that both events occurred by the probability that the first event has occurred. The formula is:

21. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-21 Tree Diagram A tree diagram is a device used to list all possibilities of a sequence of events in a systematic way.

22. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-22 Multiplication Rule The multiplication rule can be used to determine the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events. In a sequence of n events in which the first one has k 1 possibilities and the second event has k 2 and the third has k 3, and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the sequence will be: Note: “And” in this case means to multiply.

23. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-23 Permutations A permutation is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order. The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called a permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as n P r, and the formula is:

24. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-24 Combinations A selection of distinct objects without regard to order is called a combination. The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted n C r and is given by the formula:

25. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-25 Summary The three types of probability are classical, empirical, and subjective. Classical probability uses sample spaces. Empirical probability uses frequency distributions and is based on observations. In subjective probability, the researcher makes an educated guess about the chance of an event occurring.

26. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-26 Summary (cont’d.) An event consists of one or more outcomes of a probability experiment. Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. Events can also be classified as independent or dependent. If events are independent, whether or not the first event occurs does not affect the probability of the next event occurring.

27. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-27 Summary (cont’d.) If the the probability of the second event occurring is changed by the occurrence of the first event, then the events are dependent. The complement of an event is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of the event itself. Complementary events are mutually exclusive.

28. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-28 Summary Rule Definition Multiplication rule Permutation rule Combination rule The number of ways a sequence of n events can occur; if the first event can occur in k 1 ways, the second event can occur in k 2 ways, etc. The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects (order is not important)

29. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-29 Conclusions Probability can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. It can be used to quantify what the “odds” are that a specific event will occur. Some examples of how probability is used everyday would be weather forecasting, “75% chance of snow” or for setting insurance rates.

30. Copyright ©2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 4-30 Conclusions A tree diagram can be used when a list of all possible outcomes is necessary. When only the total number of outcomes is needed, the multiplication rule, the permutation rule, and the combination rule can be used.