Presentation on theme: "1 The Economic Impact of New Infrastructure Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadro delle infrastrutture dell'Italia."— Presentation transcript:
1 The Economic Impact of New Infrastructure Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadro delle infrastrutture dell'Italia settentrionale" Trento, 16 September 2005
37 Brenner tunnel (AS1): accessibility road/rail Piemonte Valle d'Aosta Liguria Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia Giulia Bolzano Trento AlpenCorS Effect (%)
38 Brenner tunnel (AS1): GDP per capita (Euro) Effect (%) Piemonte Valle d'Aosta Liguria Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia Giulia Bolzano Trento AlpenCorS
39 Comparison of Scenarios: Trento Brenner tunnel Southern rail bypass Valdastico/Pedemontana Valsugana rail/road All local projects All TEN/TINA projects Effect (%)
40 Comparison of Scenarios: Trento Brenner tunnel Southern rail bypass Valdastico/Pedemontana Valsugana rail/road All local projects All TEN/TINA projects Effect (%)
41 What does this mean for Trento? The Trento region can expect to gain from the Brenner tunnel 175 million Euro or 300 Euro per inhabitant per year (in Euro of 2005) in 2021. If also the other local infrastructure projects are implemented, it can expect 230 million Euro or 400 Euro per inhabitant per year in 2021. These figures do not include the benefits of improvements of the logistics infrastructure. However, these figures relate to 2021. In the years until 2021 the benefits are smaller as they gradually build up following the implementation of the infrastructure.
43 Conclusions (1): accessibility Good access to suppliers and markets is one of the preconditions for the production of goods and services. Transport infrastructure is therefore one of the primary instruments of governments to promote regional competitiveness. However, transport infrastructure can also increase the disparities between regions, generates more traffic and leads to higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
44 Conclusions (2): macro trends The regional effects of transport projects and transport policies are small compared with those of socio-economic and technical macro trends, such as -globalisation, -growing competition between regions, -ageing of the population, -increasing labour force participation, -growing labour productivity. Large increases in accessibility translate into only small changes in economic activity.
45 Conclusions (3): the Brenner tunnel The implementation of the Brenner tunnel will be a key factor for linking northern and southern Europe. The accessibility effects of the tunnel will reach from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. The effects for freight will be even more far reaching than those for travel. The economic effects of the Brenner tunnel will be smaller but also far-reaching. The regions south of the tunnel exit, Bozen/ Bolzano and Trento, will benefit most.
46 Conclusions (4): local projects The local transport infrastructure projects south of the Brenner tunnel will spread the tunnel effects to adjacent regions. The Valdastico and Pedemontana motor- way extensions will be most successful in promoting other regions. If all three local projects, the southern rail bypass, the Valdastico and Pedemontana motorways and the Valsugana road and rail corridor, are combined, the effect of spread- ing the tunnel effects to other Italian regions are most pronounced.
47 Conclusions (5): European projects If besides the local projects also European transport infrastructure projects of the TEN and TINA programmes outside the Alpine Space are taken into account, the effects on accessibility and regional economic development are much stronger. Although the TEN and TINA programmes have been recently re-oriented towards improving the transport systems of the new EU member states, the regions south of the Alps remain on the winner side.
48 More information: Modelling Regional Development in AlpenCorS. Final Report. AlpenCorS Deliverable 5. Dortmund, 2005.