1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 02 April 2012 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary

3. Highlights: Last 7 Days Another week of below average rainfall continued to negatively impact moisture conditions across many places in East Africa. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in above average rainfall across portions of southern Africa countries. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, Malawi, northern Mozambique and Madagascar.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, below average rainfall was observed over portions of Guinea Bissau, Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, local areas in Nigeria, portions of Cameroon, CAR and South Sudan Republic, many parts of DRC, much of Uganda, portions of Ethiopia, much of Kenya, southern Somalia, much of Tanzania, southwestern Angola and local areas in in Madagascar. In contrast, portions of Cote D’Ivoire, southern Nigeria, portions of Gabon and Congo, local areas in DRC, many parts of Angola, Zambia, eastern Namibia, local areas in Zimbabwe many parts of South Africa, Mozambique and much of Madagascar received above average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, portions of the Gulf of Guinea and central African countries, South Sudan Republic, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia, western and northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, portions of Angola, local areas in Zambia, Namibia, much of Botswana, local areas in Zimbabwe, portions of South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland and western Madagascar had below average rainfall. Above average rainfall was observed over Equatorial Guinea, western Gabon, many parts of Angola, portions of DRC, Zambia, central and eastern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, local areas in Zimbabwe, coastal South Africa and eastern Madagascar.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, below average rainfall was observed over coastal Congo and Gabon, western and northern Angola, many parts of DRC, portions of Cameroon, CAR and South Sudan Republic, Ethiopia, much of Uganda, Kenya, portions of Somalia and Tanzania, western Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, many parts of South Africa and Mozambique, and local areas in Madagascar. Equatorial Guinea, portions of Gabon, southern Angola, portions of Namibia, local areas in Zimbabwe and southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and portions of Madagascar had above average rainfall.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above average over local areas in Congo, portions of DRC, Kenya and southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, many parts of Tanzania, southern and eastern Angola, northern Namibia, northern Mozambique and local areas in Madagascar. Moisture deficits were observed over parts of Liberia, western Cameroon, portions of Gabon, Ethiopia, northern DRC, western Angola, southern Zambia, portions of Botswana, Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, South Africa and portions of Madagascar.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected stations reflects rainfall deficits that prevailed over East Africa over the past weeks; Uganda(bottom panel – left), Kenya (bottom panel right) and Ethiopia (top panel – right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days The 850hPa wind anomaly (left panel) featured westerly anomalies across western and central equatorial Africa. Westerly anomalies were also observed in the vicinity of Angola-Namibia border. These moist westerly anomalies may have contributed to the moderate to locally heavy rainfall observed across southern and central African regions. The 200hPa wind anomaly (right panel) featured strong wind anomalies across coastal West Africa and across Red Sea and the neighboring areas..

10. NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 03 – 09 April 2012 Week-2: Valid 10 – 16 April 2012 For week-1 (left panel), there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over Rwanda, Burundi, southwestern Kenya, much of Tanzania, Malawi and Madagascar. For week 2 (right panel), the higher probabilities of exceedence tend to decrease over much of these areas.

11. Week-1 Outlook 03 – 09 April 2012 1.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, Malawi and northern Mozambique: Anomalous lower level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 2.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Madagascar: Interactions between mid- latitude and tropical systems are expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate Experimental Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks

12. Experimental Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks Week-2 Outlook 10 – 16 April 2012 1.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Gabon, Congo, western DRC and northern Angola: The projected phase of the MJO is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 2.There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over eastern DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya and northern Tanzania: Anomalous lower level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary During the past seven days, below average rainfall was observed over portions of Guinea Bissau, Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, local areas in Nigeria, portions of Cameroon, CAR and South Sudan Republic, many parts of DRC, much of Uganda, portions of Ethiopia, much of Kenya, southern Somalia, much of Tanzania, southwestern Angola and local areas in in Madagascar. In contrast, portions of Cote D’Ivoire, southern Nigeria, portions of Gabon and Congo, local areas in DRC, many parts of Angola, Zambia, eastern Namibia, local areas in Zimbabwe many parts of South Africa, Mozambique and much of Madagascar received above average rainfall. During the past 30 days, portions of the Gulf of Guinea and central African countries, South Sudan Republic, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia, western and northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, portions of Angola, local areas in Zambia, Namibia, much of Botswana, local areas in Zimbabwe, portions of South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland and western Madagascar had below average rainfall. Above average rainfall was observed over Equatorial Guinea, western Gabon, many parts of Angola, portions of DRC, Zambia, central and eastern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, local areas in Zimbabwe, coastal South Africa and eastern Madagascar. During the past 90 days, below average rainfall was observed over coastal Congo and Gabon, western and northern Angola, many parts of DRC, portions of Cameroon, CAR and South Sudan Republic, Ethiopia, much of Uganda, Kenya, portions of Somalia and Tanzania, western Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, many parts of South Africa and Mozambique, and local areas in Madagascar. Equatorial Guinea, portions of Gabon, southern Angola, portions of Namibia, local areas in Zimbabwe and southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and portions of Madagascar had above average rainfall. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, Malawi, northern Mozambique and Madagascar.