1. What is Theory and Why is Theory Important? Clayton Thyne PS 235: World Politics Spring 2010 Note: This is best viewed as a slide show (otherwise the animations will be screwed up). Hit F5 now to proceed.

2. Theory begins with a very clear statement. Trade openness  more trade  cover for drug smuggling  opportunity for drug smugglers  more drug trade So, our IV (trade openness)  DV (more drug trade), but note the many theoretical links used to make this connection. Also note how the cites are used – they don’t explain what each study finds individually – they all just support the idea that legal trade  drug trade This argument is supported w/ two mare paragraphs, and then they state a clear hypothesis

3. The Morey/Kadera paper uses formal modeling to set up their theory. This is too complicated to teach at this level, though I want you to at least be exposed to it. It takes some basic math to understand what they’re doing, so give it a try if you’re good at math.

4. Thyne/Moreno begin by setting up the puzzle Their goal is to argue that democracy  preservation of university funding (a bad thing) Their theory explains many reasons why states fail to move money from university to primary education

5. So, the 1 st part of their theory identified (1) protests and (2) political clout as reasons that money goes to university instead of primary… They continue to build by identifying other barriers, including (3) university students… …and then (4) teacher unions (in the next paragraph)

6. This all leads to their 1 st hypothesis

7. About the hypothesis A hypothesis is a testable statement of a specific relationship between the IV and DV. It is a logical deduction from your theory. A hypothesis should be… – Testable/falsifiable – Simple – Takes a clear side (if…, then…)