1. Proposal Outline The Influence of Weather and Climate Events on Dust, Smoke and Sulfate Events R. Husar, PI Response to EPA STAR RFA Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate http://epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2011/2011_star_extremeevent.html Apr 10, 2011

2. Atmospheric Effects on Air Quality: Emissions (Anthropogenic and Natural) Dispersion (Horizontal and Vertical) Kinetics (Chem. Reactions & Removal) All the above depends on climate Emissions Anthropogenic El. Utility (Temp) Transportation Industrial Natural Dust (T,Prec,Wind) Smoke (T,Prec,Wind) Biogenic (T) Source-Receptor Dispersion (Vertical and Horizontal) HiP stagnations (Circ.) LoP Blockage (Circ) Loc disp (Wind, MiixH) Transformations Sox Oxidation (T,H) Sox Removal (Prec) Events: 1. Continental/Hemispherical 2. Regional General Framework

3. Continental/Hemispherical Scale Events Influenced by global emissions, circulation, precipitation AQ – Climate analysis method fro global..???? AQ and Climate Relevance: Demonstrate role global climate Tipping points for Regulations Mex Smoke >>> Exceptional Event Rule Gobi Dust >> Hemispheric Transport Protocol

4. Continental/Hemispheric Dust Events over the US Gobi dust in spring Sahara in summer US-scale fine dust events are mainly from intercontinental transport Fine Dust Events, 1992-2003 ug/m3

5. Continental/Hemispheric Smoke Events over the US Stuff-Stuff-Stuff-Stuff- Scenario: Smoke form Mexico causes record PM over the Eastern US. Goal: Detect smoke emission and predict PM and ozone concentration Support air quality management and transportation safety Impacts: PM and ozone air quality episodes, AQ standard exceedance Transportation safety risks due to reduced visibility Timeline: Routine satellite monitoring of fire and smoke The smoke event triggers intensified sensing and analysis The event is documented for science and management use Science/Air Quality Information Needs: Quantitative real-time fire & smoke emission monitoring PM, ozone forecast (3-5 days) based on smoke emissions data Information Technology Needs: Real-time access to routine and ad-hoc data and models Analysis tools: browsing, fusion, data/model integration Delivery of science-based event summary/forecast to air quality and aviation safety managers and to the public Record Smoke Impact on PM Concentrations rhusar@me.wustl.edurhusar@me.wustl.edu, stefan@me.wustl.edu stefan@me.wustl.edu Smoke Event

7. Tools for Continental AQ-Climate Analysis NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS NOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-

8. REGIONAL Regional-Scale Events Influenced by regional emissions, circulation, precipitation AQ – Climate analysis method for regional…?? AQ and Climate Relevance: Demonstrate role regional emissions, climate, precipitation

11. Tools/Methods for for Regional AQ – Climate Analysis

12. Possible Drought Effect on PM Coarse in South Texas The two dust peeks at Big Bend have different Al/Si ratios During the year, Al/Si = 0.4 In July, Al/Si reaches 0.55, closer to the Al/Si of the Sahara dust (0.65-0.7) The spring peak is identified as as ‘ Local Dust ’, while the July peak is dominated by Sahara dust. Tools/Methods for Regional AQ-Climate Analysis

13. Datasets, Info Sharing, Collaboration.. Other … tangibles and intangibles

15. Satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness Climatology SeaWiFS Satellite, Summer 2000 - 2003 Space-Time-Parameter coverage GISS datasets 99 Percentile 60 Percentile

16. What’s in it for AQ Management and Policy